Answer

The evolving Pakistan-Bangladesh relationship reflects shifting regional alignments, marked by renewed diplomatic outreach and trade cooperation. As Bangladesh emerges as one of South Asia’s fastest-growing economies and Pakistan pursues stronger ties, India’s strategic interests ranging from regional stability to economic influence are increasingly influenced by these evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Impact on India’s Strategic Interests

• Revival of Anti-India Elements: Pakistan’s deepening ties with Bangladesh may reactivate dormant anti-India militant networks, leading to security threats in India’s northeastern states.
  For example: ISI-backed insurgent groups like ULFA and NSCN previously used Bangladesh as a base for infiltration into India.
• Naval Presence in Bay of Bengal: Joint military cooperation between Pakistan and Bangladesh could challenge India’s maritime dominance in the region and create vulnerabilities.
  For example: Bangladesh’s naval participation in Pakistan-led AMAN-23 exercise in the Northern Arabian Sea signals potential maritime collaboration that could undermine India’s strategic positioning.
• Border Security Challenges: Increased cooperation between Dhaka and Islamabad may weaken counter-terrorism coordination with India, exacerbating infiltration and illegal migration.
  For example: Porous Indo-Bangladesh borders have historically facilitated ISI operations, making border fencing and surveillance crucial.
• Weakening BIMSTEC’s Influence: Pakistan’s strategic outreach aims to dilute India-led regional cooperation initiatives like BIMSTEC, indirectly reviving SAARC where Pakistan plays a key role.
  For example: Bangladesh’s closer economic and defense ties with Pakistan could reduce its reliance on India-led multilateral platforms.
• Potential Arms Transfers: Islamabad could supply ballistic missiles or advanced weapons to Dhaka, altering the regional military balance and pressuring India’s eastern security posture.
  For example: Speculations about Pakistan’s Abdali missile sale to Bangladesh raise concerns over regional arms escalation.

Strategic, Economic, and Geopolitical Analysis

Strategic Dimension

• Cross-Border Infiltration: Bangladesh’s growing defense cooperation with Pakistan may embolden radical elements, worsening insurgency threats along India’s eastern border.
  For example: ULFA and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen have historically used Bangladesh as a safe haven, receiving logistical support from Pakistan-based handlers.
• Threat to India’s Defense Superiority: Military collaboration between Bangladesh and Pakistan could neutralize India’s technological edge, leading to an arms race in the region.
  For example: Bangladesh’s recent naval expansion, backed by Chinese and Pakistani defense exports, threatens India’s dominance in the Bay of Bengal.

Economic Dimension

• Trade Diversion Risks: Bangladesh’s diversification of trade partnerships with Pakistan and China could reduce its dependence on India, affecting bilateral trade.
  For example: Bangladesh’s exports to India are valued at $15 billion, but deeper ties with Pakistan could divert trade flows, impacting Indian businesses.
• Infrastructure Rivalry: Increased Chinese-Pakistani investments in Bangladeshi infrastructure could challenge India’s regional connectivity projects.
  For example: China’s involvement in Bangladesh’s Payra Port competes with India-backed infrastructure, affecting Indian access to maritime trade routes.

Geopolitical Dimension

• Strategic Realignment in South Asia: A Bangladesh-Pakistan partnership, backed by China, could undermine India’s regional leadership and diplomatic standing.
  For example: Bangladesh’s growing proximity to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may reduce India’s strategic influence in South Asia.
• Impact on India’s Foreign Policy: Stronger Bangladesh-Pakistan ties might force India to reassess its neighborhood-first policy, increasing engagement with other regional players.
  For example: India’s outreach to Myanmar and Sri Lanka could serve as a counterbalance to shifting alliances in South Asia.

Comprehensive Framework for India’s Response

• Strengthening Border Security: Enhance surveillance, fencing, and counter-infiltration measures to prevent ISI-linked activities in India’s northeastern region.
  For example: Use of AI-driven surveillance drones along the Indo-Bangladesh border can curb illegal movements and intelligence leaks.
• Deepening Economic Engagement: Offer bilateral preferential trade agreements and investment incentives to ensure Bangladesh remains economically aligned with India.
  For example: Expanding duty-free access for Bangladeshi goods and infrastructure funding can reinforce India’s economic leverage.
• Diplomatic Outreach: Engage Bangladesh’s political and military leadership to counteract growing Pakistani influence and reinforce shared security interests.
  For example: Regular high-level India-Bangladesh defense dialogues can neutralize Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts.
• Maritime Security and Naval Expansion: Strengthen India’s naval presence in the Bay of Bengal through joint exercises with Bangladesh, ensuring maritime dominance.
  For example: India-Bangladesh naval drills under SAGAR doctrine can maintain Indian influence in regional waters.
• Leveraging Global Alliances: Coordinate with the US, EU, and Japan to limit Chinese and Pakistani influence in Bangladesh through strategic investments.
  For example: Quad-backed infrastructure and defense cooperation can counteract China-Pakistan influence in Dhaka.

“Bridging Gaps, Strengthening Bonds” India must adopt a proactive engagement strategy by deepening regional connectivity, trade, and diplomatic outreach. Strengthening BIMSTEC, leveraging economic corridors, and fostering people-to-people ties will counterbalance shifting alliances. A calibrated mix of realpolitik and neighborhood-first diplomacy will ensure India’s strategic primacy while fostering a stable, cooperative South Asia.

DOWNLOAD PDF