Recently, President Xi Jinping sent a special plane to bring Chief Adviser to the Interim Government, Muhammad Yunus, to Beijing, signaling China’s growing influence and closer ties with Bangladesh.

Strengthening of Bangladesh’s Diplomatic Relations

• China’s Gesture: China granted 100% duty-free access to Bangladeshi exports. China pledged to increase imports of Bangladeshi goods and committed $2.1 billion in investments, loans, and grants during Yunus’s visit.
• Pakistan’s Growing Influence:  Once a strained relationship, Pakistan is now making rapid diplomatic and economic inroads into Bangladesh:
  • Bangladesh has eased visa restrictions, enabling trade growth. Direct flights have resumed, and military cooperation is on the horizon.
• Relations with India: India played a crucial role in Bangladesh’s 1971 Liberation War, ensuring its independence. 
  • However, recent developments indicate a shift in Bangladesh’s stance, raising concerns about its strategic alignment. 
  • India maintained strong ties with Bangladesh, particularly under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, but future relations remain uncertain amid evolving regional dynamics.

India’s Bangladesh Policy and Shifting Dynamics

• Hasina’s Influence: For nearly two decades, India’s Bangladesh policy was largely influenced by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. 
• Cooperation: Her tenure was marked by key cooperative efforts, particularly in ensuring stability in India’s northeastern states, tackling cross-border insurgency, and granting transit rights to India.
• Diplomatic Support by India: In return, New Delhi provided consistent political and diplomatic support to Hasina, even as her domestic popularity began to wane.
• Controversial Elections Hasina’s elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were mired in controversy, marked by allegations of vote rigging and manipulation.
• Acts by Hasina: As Hasina became more authoritarian, suppressing opposition and committing human rights violations, anti-India sentiment began to rise in Bangladesh.
• Support by India: Delhi was often perceived as complicit due to its strong ties with Hasina, even when her popularity reached its lowest point.

India’s Hesitation in Response to Political Uprising

• Initial response: For the first two weeks, India called the situation an “internal matter”, with no clear statement of support or strategy.
• Media narrative: Some sections of the Indian media wrongly linked the uprising to Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan’s intelligence.
• Debunked claims: Claims of anti-Hindu violence in Bangladesh were manipulated or taken out of context, as revealed by BBC Verify.

Challenges in India-Bangladesh Relations

• Extradition Disputes: Bangladesh’s formal request for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, regarding her alleged involvement in killings, remains a bone of contention between the two nations.
• Unsatisfactory Response: India’s response to the request has been perceived in Dhaka as unsatisfactory. 
  • The narrative surrounding India sheltering Hasina and refusing to respond to Bangladesh’s extradition requests has deepened the rift.
• Accusations of Double Standards: India’s call for “inclusive elections” in Bangladesh has been criticized in Dhaka as “double standards”.
• Dismissal of Elections: India dismissed Bangladesh’s non-participative elections under Hasina as an internal matter while later pushing for fair elections, intensifying the emotional divide between the two nations.
• Unresolved Teesta Dispute: The Teesta water dispute has festered for years, with Bangladesh facing severe dry-season water shortages and loss of agricultural productivity.
  • Despite Bangladesh’s legal rights as a lower riparian nation under international water law, its pleas have been unaddressed, aggravating tensions.
• China’s Involvement: In frustration, Dhaka signed a $1 billion MoU with China for the Teesta Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project, aimed at flood control, erosion prevention, and ensuring water availability during the dry season.
• Trade Imbalance: Bangladesh continues to struggle with a substantial trade deficit:
  • Exports to India: $1.97 billion (FY 2023-24)
  • Imports from India: $14.01 billion, resulting in a $12 billion trade gap.
• Border Security: Border security issues persist, continuing to strain the bilateral relationship. Many illegal migrants enter into India through the porous India-bangladesh border

Way Forward

• Diversified Political Engagement: Strengthen diplomatic ties with newly elected leaders and all major political forces in Bangladesh.
• Trade Balance: Work towards reducing the trade deficit to foster a more equitable economic relationship.
• Teesta Water Dispute: Prioritize resolving the Teesta river issue through negotiations, ensuring mutual benefit and regional stability.
• Critical Diplomatic Moments: With the upcoming BIMSTEC summit in April 2025, both countries are at a crucial juncture. 
  • While a bilateral meeting between Yunus and Indian PM Narendra Modi seems unlikely, these moments of diplomatic tension are when bold gestures and strategic patience are most needed.

Conclusion

India cannot afford to press pause on relations with Bangladesh, as the relationship is far too critical. Strategic patience and sustained diplomatic effort are needed to manage the current tensions and secure long-term cooperation, as the stakes are high for both nations.

DOWNLOAD PDF