India suspended certain provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following renewed tensions with Pakistan, particularly after the Pahalgam terror attack.

Reasons for the Terrorist Attack by Pakistan in Kashmir

• U.S. Withdrawal: With Washington pulling out of Kabul in 2021, the strategic leverage Pakistan once had with the U.S. has largely vanished. Facing a crippling economic crisis, Pakistan has not received financial aid from the U.S. as it often had in the past.
• Non-Cooperation from Gulf: Gulf nations have grown weary of repeatedly bailing out Pakistan. There is a perception that Islamabad has offered little in return.
• Refusal to Provide Aid: Currently, Gulf states have refused to provide financial assistance, even amid Pakistan’s ongoing economic troubles.
• Strained China-Pak ties: China invested heavily in Pakistan’s infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, many projects remain stalled due to corruption and inefficiency.
• Security Failures: The killing of Chinese engineers by Baloch terrorists has soured bilateral ties. Despite being Pakistan’s largest patron, Beijing is increasingly impatient.
• Strategic Depth Disappointment: The Taliban regime in Kabul has not become the client state Pakistan envisioned. Instead, it has turned hostile, creating new security challenges.
• Cross-Border Attacks: Border regions with Afghanistan have seen frequent attacks on civilians and military personnel. Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has become a security liability, not an asset.
• Tensions with Iran: Eight Pakistani migrants were killed in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province by a Baloch outfit. In the past year, both Iran and Pakistan have carried out missile strikes against alleged terrorist hideouts across their shared border.
• Relatively Calm Border: Some analysts now argue that Pakistan’s border with India is currently its most peaceful. This marks a stark contrast to the volatile western borders with Afghanistan and Iran.
• Reclaiming Relevance: The terror attack in Pahalgam can be seen as a desperate attempt by Pakistan to reassert its regional importance. 
  • It seeks to challenge the growing sentiment in India that “Pakistan does not matter”. Through such actions, Islamabad attempts to disrupt the perception that it has been effectively marginalised.
• Ideological Justification: Recent remarks by Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir provide context to the strategic mindset behind such actions. General Munir repeatedly invoked the “two-nation theory”, signaling a return to ideological justifications for Pakistan’s actions against India.

India’s New Approach Towards Pakistan

• Perception of Irrelevance: Islamabad views India as taking advantage of Pakistan’s current vulnerabilities. In New Delhi’s calculus, Pakistan is seen as a minor distraction, not a strategic threat.
  • India is increasingly focused on its aspirations to become a global superpower.
• Abrogation of Article 370: On August 5, 2019, India abrogated Article 370, revoking Jammu & Kashmir’s special status. This move signaled India’s intent to fully integrate the region, ignoring Pakistan’s objections.
• Progress in the Valley: Despite political debates, there has been a steady improvement in the economy and daily life in Kashmir. A surge in domestic tourism is seen as a key indicator of normalcy in the region.
• Diplomatic Realignment: India has successfully lobbied the United States to de-hyphenate its relations with India and Pakistan. The current official visit to the U.S. Vice President J D Vance to India only, with no stop in Pakistan, underscores this shift.
• Diminishing Role of Pakistan: As India strengthens ties with Gulf nations, Pakistan remains on the sidelines. 
  • Notably, the Pahalgam terror attack occurred during PM Modi’s official visit to Saudi Arabia, a country once a staunch ally of Pakistan, particularly during the 1971 Indo-Pak war.
    

Indus Water Treaty

• Legal Framework: The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960.  It was the result of nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan.  The Treaty contains 12 Articles and 8 Annexures labeled A to H.
• River Allocation: India has full and unrestricted rights over the eastern rivers: Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi. Pakistan receives exclusive use of the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.  
  • India may use western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like power generation and navigation.
• Suspension: India’s decision to suspend the treaty expands its strategic options.
  It can stop sharing river flow data and impose no operational design limits.  India may create storage on the western rivers without notifying Pakistan.
• Impact on Hydro Projects: India can now halt visits by Pakistani officials to projects like Kishenganga and Ratle. 
  • Reservoir flushing at Kishenganga can begin, enhancing the dam’s lifespan. The projects lie in Jammu & Kashmir and are on rivers allocated to Pakistan.
• Short-Term Impact: Despite suspension, the water flow to Pakistan will not change immediately. India lacks infrastructure to either block or divert water in the short term.
  The changes may only take effect over a few years, depending on development.
• Absence of Exit Clause: The Indus Waters Treaty does not contain any provision for unilateral exit. It also does not have a fixed duration and can only be modified by mutual consent.  Thus, India or Pakistan cannot legally revoke or terminate it on their own.
• Limits of Arbitration: If India abandons the treaty entirely, arbitration may become ineffective. The mechanism works only within the treaty’s scope and not for enforcing performance.  
  • Pakistan cannot approach the ICJ due to India’s reservations under its statute.
• Pakistan’s Objections: Pakistan disputes the design of Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects. It claims these run-of-the-river projects violate provisions of the IWT.  India argues they are within treaty-compliant design specifications.

Conclusion

India’s growing global influence, coupled with the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, signals a strategic shift in the region. The situation emphasizes the need for careful diplomatic engagement to avoid further destabilization.

DOWNLOAD PDF