WMO Forecast: World Likely To Cross 1.5°C Warming Threshold By 2025–2029

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports a 70% chance that the average global temperature between 2025 and 2029 will exceed the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).

The WMO’s latest decadal forecast, compiled with input from the UK Met Office

IPCC’s 1.5°C Goal

Paris Climate Agreement Target: The 2015 Paris Agreement set the goal of limiting long-term global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to avoid severe climate impacts.
Climate Commitments: Countries must submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2031–2035, aiming to meet the 1.5°C target.

Key Highlights of the WMO Forecast (2025–2029)

Breaching 1.5°C Limit: There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will see global temperatures more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Warmest Year Records: There is an 80% probability that one of the years from 2025–2029 will exceed 2024, the warmest year on record.
Global Temperature Range: The annual global mean near-surface temperature is expected to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C higher than the 1850–1900 average.
Regional Climate Projections
- The Arctic region is likely to warm by 2.4°C in winters, more than 3.5 times the global average
  - Sea ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
- South Asia, including India, is expected to experience wetter conditions, continuing recent trends, except for 2023.
- Amazon may face drier-than-normal conditions, while northern Europe, Sahel, Alaska, and Siberia may become wetter from May to September.

Implications of 1.5°C Breach

Increased Extreme Weather Events: Breaching 1.5°C will intensify heatwaves, droughts, cyclones, and floods, severely affecting vulnerable populations, agriculture, and infrastructure.
Biodiversity Loss: Coral reefs and Arctic ecosystems face irreversible damage; species extinction rates will rise due to habitat loss and temperature stress.
Sea-Level Rise & Glacial Melting: Accelerated melting of polar ice and glaciers will lead to faster sea-level rise, threatening coastal communities and small island nations.
Food & Water Insecurity: Disrupted monsoon patterns, reduced crop yields, and declining freshwater availability will exacerbate global hunger and conflict over resources.

Implications for Climate Policy

Strengthened Global Action: Persistent warming trends reinforce the urgency of ambitious climate action, emissions cuts, and international cooperation.
Risks to Ecosystems and Economies: Exceeding the 1.5°C limit could lead to severe impacts on biodiversity, agriculture, water resources, and economic stability.
Climate Monitoring and Prediction: WMO emphasizes that continued climate tracking provides scientific tools for decision-makers to adapt effectively.
India’s Climate Adaptation : With increasing monsoon variability and regional anomalies, India must enhance adaptation strategies, early warning systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

WMO is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation in atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology, and geophysics.
Establishment: Established in 1950, succeeding the International Meteorological Organization (founded in 1873).
- Became a UN specialized agency in 1951.
- Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland..
Membership: WMO has 193 Member States and Territories, working collectively on global meteorological initiatives.
- India is a member of the WMO since 1950
Key Publications: Releases the State of the Global Climate Report, Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, and Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.
- Provides scientific input to the IPCC and global climate frameworks.
Significance: WMO ensures the reliable exchange of weather, climate, and water information, aiding global sustainable development and safety.

Additional Reading: India’s Updated NDC

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