Iran’s entry into SCO and BRICS and rising Taliban-regional engagement reshape Central Asia. India gains fresh scope to boost development ties with CARs.

Shifting of Regional Dynamics

• Regional Flux: The Central Asian region is witnessing significant shifts, including Iran’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, and the Taliban’s growing engagement with China, Iran, and now India.
• Emerging Opportunities: These dynamics are creating new avenues for India to deepen its engagement with the Central Asian Republics (CARs), particularly in the development sector.

India-Central Asia Dialogue

• Primary Focus: The fourth meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue notably prioritized the development sector in its discussions.
• Shift in Narrative: This signifies a departure from the earlier focus on Central Asian geopolitics, the ‘new Great Game’, oil and gas deals, and pipeline routes.
• Showcasing India’s Strengths: The dialogue, chaired by India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and attended by the Foreign Ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, highlighted India’s developmental strengths and their potential linkage with Central Asia.

Evolution of India-Central Asia Ties

• Historical Linkages: Central Asia has long been part of India’s imagination due to historical civilizational and cultural connections.
• Post-Soviet Opportunities: After the Soviet Union’s breakup, new geopolitical realities and economic opportunities emerged, influencing India’s approach, particularly for energy imports, trade, and transit.
• Strategic Interests: Concerns over rising religious fundamentalism, instability in Afghanistan, and China’s growing regional presence further heightened India’s strategic interest.
• ‘Connect Central Asia’ Policy (2012): Following strategic partnerships with Kazakhstan (2009), Uzbekistan (2011), and Tajikistan (2012).
  • India announced its 12-point ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy in 2012. This aimed for a proactive, collective approach to strengthen political, security, economic, and cultural ties.
• High-Level Visits and Agreements: In July 2015, PM Narendra Modi visited all five Central Asian nations, resulting in the signing of 22 agreements across sectors. 
  • India also signed strategic partnerships with Kazakhstan (2009), Uzbekistan (2011), and Tajikistan (2012).

India-Central Asia Connectivity Projects

• Discrepancy: Despite strong political and strategic ties, India’s commercial engagement with Central Asia has remained limited.
• Connectivity Obstacles: An unstable Afghanistan and strained India–Pakistan relations have obstructed direct connectivity.
• Alternative Routes: To counter these challenges, New Delhi pursued alternative routes, collaborating with Russia and Iran on the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its tributaries.
• Afghan Infrastructure Investment: Investments in Afghan infrastructure were integral to this strategy.
• Zaranj–Delaram Road: Construction of the 218 km Zaranj–Delaram road in Afghanistan was a key initiative.
• Chabahar Port: Development of Chabahar Port in Iran aimed to facilitate India’s access to Central Asia via Iran and Afghanistan’s ring road.
• Coinciding Initiatives: India’s connectivity plans aligned with the US New Silk Road Initiative, connecting Central Asia with South Asia via Afghanistan.
• TAPI Pipeline: The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline project also remained a significant focus.
• Disruption: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban disrupted these earlier narratives and plans.
• China’s Expansion: In the interim, China has expanded its regional presence through trade and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.
• Eurasian Economic Union: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are also part of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.

Development Cooperation and Capacity Building

• Shift in Engagement: In the evolving regional context, development cooperation and capacity building have become central to India’s engagement with Central Asia.
• New Institutions: To support this shift, India has established:
  • India–Central Asia Development Group
  • India–Central Asia Business Council
• Line of Credit: A US$1 billion line of credit was launched to fund development projects across infrastructure, IT, energy, and agriculture.
• Key Areas for Linkages (India-Central Asia Business Council): EAM Jaishankar outlined five crucial areas to strengthen ties between India’s growing economy and Central Asia:
  • Digital economy and innovation
  • Financial services
  • Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
  • Enhancing connectivity
  • Streamlining transit procedures
• Digital Partnership: Establishment of the India–Central Asia Digital Partnership Forum.
• Technical Support: India’s offer of technical support for designing Universal Health Coverage (UHC) models in Central Asia.
• DAKSHIN: Central Asian partners’ agreement to work with India’s Global South Centre of Excellence – DAKSHIN (Development and Knowledge Sharing Initiative) for development experience exchange.
• Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI): India has offered to share its DPI platforms, such as Aadhaar and DigiLocker, with Central Asian countries.

Trade and Tourism

• Limited Trade Volume: Due to connectivity and customs challenges, India’s trade with Central Asia has remained limited to around US$2 billion in recent years.
• Proposed Long-Term Cooperation: To strengthen ties, long-term cooperation has been suggested in:
  • Uranium
  • Crude oil
  • Gas
  • Mining
  • Coal
  • Fertilizers
• Facilitating Payments: Encouraging payments in local currencies is also suggested.
• High-Potential Sectors: Tourism and education have been identified as high-potential sectors for future growth.
• Existing Energy Imports: India imports significant quantities of uranium from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
• Joint Mineral Exploration: Central Asian partners expressed interest in jointly exploring rare earth minerals.

Conclusion

India’s approach to Central Asia is evolving from a connectivity-deficit, security-focused lens to one that prioritises development partnerships, digital innovation, and energy collaboration. By strategically using tools like the INSTC, Chabahar, and development financing, India is building a more resilient, diversified engagement framework

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