A significant geopolitical conflict between India and China is unfolding over control of Buddhism in the Himalayas, particularly concerning the succession of the Dalai Lama. 

• This struggle is not merely about territory or trade, but about faith, which serves as China’s primary tool of influence in a region where infrastructure is poor and basic amenities are lacking. 

Background

• While Buddhism traditionally advocates non-violence, in the 21st century, it has become a geopolitical chessboard, with Monasteries that once served as centres of meditation and monastic education now sit at the frontlines of national power games. 
• The reincarnation of lamas has become a matter not just of religion but also of sovereignty.
• In regions such as Ladakh, Tawang, and even remote Bhutan, Buddhist culture is increasingly shaped not only by the sacred but also by strategy.

China’s Strategy to Control Buddhism

China has consistently sought to control Buddhism, especially since the Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959, driven by an insecurity that a lack of control over Buddhism could lead to Tibet’s separation from China. The following are some of the strategies adopted  by China: 

• Marginalisation: China has marginalised or expelled independent Lamas to prevent them from speaking against the state. Many Buddhist institutions have been co-opted, meaning the state has established control over them.
• Direct Control over Monastic Activities: China monitors monastic activities closely, controlling who enters monasteries and what is taught.
• State Sanction for Reincarnation: In 2007, the Chinese government formally asserted that any living Buddha must be sanctioned by the state to have legitimacy. 
  • This meant that spiritual leaders would only be recognised if the state approved them.
• Recent Intensification of Control:
  • China maintains a database of all Lamas.
  • Significant infrastructure development around monasteries, such as roads, has been undertaken to gain the sympathy of monks in Tibet.
  • China organises Buddhism-related conferences, offering lavish hospitality to visiting Buddhist monks to secure their loyalty. 

India’s Approach and its Challenges

• Despite the Dalai Lama’s presence in India since 1959, India did not fully leverage this advantage. 
  • While India has become more active in the last decade, focusing on increasing its soft power in Buddhist affairs, its approach is seen as fragmented and lacking a centralised vision.
• Recent Soft Power Initiatives: India has developed a Buddhist Circuit ,under the Swadesh Darshan Scheme, connecting pilgrimage sites like Kushinagar, Sarnath, and Gaya to attract more Buddhist pilgrims. It has also asserted that Buddha was Indian and born in India.
• Contrast with China: India’s approach is limited to soft power, whereas China has integrated Buddhism into its statecraft, actively trying to control it. 

Dalai Lama’s Succession

• Conflict Point: The central point of conflict is the selection of the Dalai Lama’s successor, as the current Dalai Lama is now 90 years old. 
  • This decision will determine whether the new Lama’s loyalty lies with China or promotes independence.
• Current Dalai Lama’s Stance: The present Dalai Lama states that his successor will be chosen from outside China.
• China’s Stance: China insists the selection will follow the centuries-old Golden Urn method.
  • This method involves selecting a name from a golden urn, with validation from a local emperor. 
  • China intends to use this method to impose its authority and validate the next Dalai Lama through the state.
• Anticipated Outcome: Given these opposing views, it is highly likely there will be two Dalai Lamas in the future:
  • One supported by China, chosen via the Golden Urn method.
  • Another chosen from outside China, supported by India and the broader Buddhist diaspora. This can result in a significant split within Tibetan Buddhism.

Geopolitical Implications and the Proxy War

This anticipated split presents considerable challenges for India and has already made Himalayan Buddhism a front in a proxy war between India and China.

• Chinese Pressure on Monasteries: China will exert pressure on monasteries in India, including those in Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh, as well as in Sri Lanka and Mongolia, to support the Chinese-backed Dalai Lama.
• Influence of Monasteries: The influence of monasteries extends beyond their immediate premises to the local population, making any support for the Chinese-backed Lama a significant indirect support for China. This poses a major challenge for India, especially in border regions like Ladakh.
• China’s Proactive Influence Building:
  • China has invested heavily in Buddhist infrastructure in Nepal to establish its influence
  • It has also maintained close ties with monastic communities in Bhutan to secure their support when needed.
  • China claims the Tawang region in Arunachal Pradesh as part of Tibet, stating it is the birthplace of the Sixth Dalai Lama, thereby asserting its claim over the area.
• Visible Proxy War Instances: The proxy war is already evident in:
  • The Karma Kagyu school of Tibetan Buddhism, which has two rival Karmapas, with China supporting one and India supporting the other.
  • China’s support for the Doge Sugden sect, which was exiled by the Dalai Lama for activities deemed against Tibetan Buddhist unity. 
  • China’s embrace of this sect demonstrates its strategy to sow discord and gain influence.

Conclusion

India cannot afford to concede ground to China in this crucial domain. Hosting the next Dalai Lama is both an opportunity and challenge for India; a chance to cement spiritual influence in the region but also a trigger for intense pressure from China.

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