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Introduction

The US ending the Chabahar sanctions waiver challenges India’s plans to use the port as a gateway to Central Asia. With evolving West Asian geopolitics, Iran’s shifting priorities, and regional realignments, India must safeguard its trade connectivity, strategic influence, and long-term partnerships to maintain its regional outreach.

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Benefits of end of US sanctions waiver on Chabahar for India’s trade and Central Asia outreach

• Strengthened regional trade connectivity: The waiver’s end compels India to diversify its access routes, making Chabahar a critical link to Central Asia and Eurasia.
  Eg: India signed a 10-year bilateral contract with Iran in May 2024 to develop and operate Chabahar, ensuring a reliable trade corridor.
• Opportunity to deepen multilateral partnerships: The situation pushes India to engage more actively with neighboring and regional partners for trade and infrastructure cooperation.
  Eg: Trilateral meetings with Armenia and Uzbekistan on the sidelines of India-Iran consultations focused on expanding trade through Chabahar.
• Counterbalance to China’s regional influence: Chabahar provides India an alternative corridor to Central Asia, limiting China’s growing dominance in West Asia via the BRI.
• Resilience and long-term infrastructure planning: The end of the waiver encourages India to invest in robust, long-term infrastructure strategies for trade.

Challenges for India due to end of US sanctions waiver on Chabahar for trade and Central Asia outreach

• Loss of preferential access to Iran: Without the waiver, India may face restrictions or delays in port operations, affecting trade and investment plans.
• Geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia: Regional conflicts and shifting alliances increase operational risks and complicate India’s strategic planning.
  Eg: The 12-day Israel-Iran war and the Gulf States’ security recalibrations affected earlier alignments India relied on.
• Iran’s evolving strategic priorities: Tehran’s focus on its Look East strategy and cross-border connectivity with China and Pakistan reduces India’s leverage over Chabahar.
  Eg: Iran is linking Chabahar with Gwadar and its railway network to Central Asia and China, making it less India-centric.
• Security and regional risks from Pakistan: Pakistan’s growing ties with Iran could create potential security spillovers impacting India’s trade and strategic outreach. 
• Rising competition from China: China’s Belt and Road Initiative and infrastructure investments in Iran could limit India’s strategic and commercial influence at Chabahar.

Way forward for India

• Pursue strategic autonomy: India must balance ties across the US, Iran, and Gulf States while safeguarding its independent regional posture.
  Eg: Continued engagement in both Chabahar and IMEC strengthens India’s multi-alignment strategy.
• Deepen long-term partnerships with Iran: Sustained cooperation in infrastructure, energy, and trade is crucial to protect India’s foothold in Chabahar.
• Promote regional security dialogues: India should support region-owned security frameworks to reduce the volatility that hampers port investments.
  Eg: Engagement with Iran, Armenia, and Uzbekistan through trilateral meetings enhances regional ownership of Chabahar.
• Leverage Chabahar for Eurasian trade: By integrating Chabahar with Central Asia’s supply chains, India can strengthen its continental connectivity.Strengthen resilience against external shocks: India must diversify port investments and secure long-term commercial contracts to withstand geopolitical disruptions.

Conclusion

The end of the US sanctions waiver on Chabahar underscores the need for India to adopt a proactive and adaptive regional strategy. By demonstrating strategic foresight, diplomatic flexibility, and investment in resilient trade corridors, India can continue to strengthen its influence in Central Asia while safeguarding economic and strategic interests despite shifting geopolitical dynamics.

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