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Introduction

The Trump-Xi ‘G2’ summit compelled India to confront an uncomfortable truth about its deep economic reliance on Chinese imports. As global power equations shift, the episode underlines how external alignments can expose internal vulnerabilities, pressing India to rethink supply chains, self-reliance, and strategic autonomy in trade.

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Effect of Chinese Dependence on India’s Strategic Autonomy

• Weak bargaining power in major-power diplomacy: China’s supply-chain dominance gives Beijing leverage that India currently lacks in major-power negotiations.
  Eg: China can weaponise its market size and supply-chain dominance, while India “cannot dictate terms” in similar talks.
• Strategic vulnerability in critical sectors: Heavy import dependence in pharmaceuticals, electronics and critical minerals limits India’s ability to negotiate from a position of strength.
  Eg: China controls key inputs for APIs and electronics, exposing India during crises or diplomatic friction.
• Asymmetric bilateral relationship with China: India imports far more strategic goods from China than vice versa, creating a structural imbalance in negotiations.
• Reduced manoeuvrability in the Indo-Pacific strategy: A US-China thaw reduces India’s ability to rely on the US to counterbalance China.
  Eg: Trump’s quick trade truce with China versus continued tariff pressure on India shows India’s limited leverage.
• Constraints on multi-alignment and autonomous foreign policy: It narrows India’s options, slowing its move toward a genuinely multi-aligned strategy.

Measures to Enhance India’s Atmanirbharta in Key Sectors

• Diversification of supply chains: India should aggressively pursue the diversification of its supply chains to mitigate vulnerabilities and enhance resilience and strategic freedom.
• Building domestic manufacturing scale: India must develop its own “unique points of asymmetric leverage” in technology and manufacturing to match China’s influence.
• Attracting global manufacturers exiting China: Leveraging global de-risking trends can accelerate India’s industrial growth in high-value sectors.
• Investing in emerging and critical technologies: Developing indigenous capabilities in AI, quantum computing, and semiconductors is essential to achieving strategic autonomy in the long term.
• Strengthening economic governance and industrial policy tools: India must adapt trade rules, investment norms, and digital governance architecture to support strategic industries.

Conclusion

India’s dependence on Chinese imports is no longer just an economic gap but a strategic constraint. Strengthening domestic capability, widening supply chains, and investing in critical technologies will help India reclaim genuine autonomy and navigate major-power shifts on its own terms.

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