The Global Carbon Project’s 2025 Global Carbon Budget projects fossil CO₂ emissions to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record 38.1 billion tonnes.

Key Findings from the Global Carbon Project Report

• Slower Emission Growth in India: In 2025, India’s carbon emissions are expected to rise by just 1.4%, a significant slowdown from 4% growth in 2024.
  • Main Factors:
    • Favorable monsoon: Reduced demand for cooling (e.g., air conditioning).
    • Increased renewable energy: Growth in clean energy contributed to lower coal consumption, a major contributor to emissions.
• Comparison with Global and Other Major Emitters:
  • China’s emissions are projected to increase by only 0.4% due to moderate energy consumption growth and a strong rise in renewable energy.
  • The United States and the European Union are also expected to see increases in emissions by 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively.
• India’s Position in Global Emissions:
  • Third Largest Emitter: India ranks as the third-largest carbon emitter globally, with 3.2 billion tonnes of emissions annually (as of 2024), behind the U.S. (4.9 billion tonnes) and China (12 billion tonnes).
  • Per Capita Emissions: India’s per capita emissions are 2.2 tonnes of CO2 annually, the second-lowest among the 20 largest economies, reflecting the country’s lower carbon footprint compared to other major emitters.
• Factors Driving Global Emission Growth in 2025:
  • Fuel-Type Contributions: Global fossil CO2 emissions in 2025 are driven by all fuel types: coal (+0.8%), oil (+1%), natural gas (+1.3%). 
  • Land-Use Change: Emissions from permanent deforestation remain high at about 4 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, while reforestation offsets roughly half of these emissions.
  • Long-Term Trends: Total CO₂ emissions (fossil + land-use change) grew at 0.3% per year in the last decade, slower than 1.9% in the previous decade.
  • Carbon Budget for 1.5°C Goal: The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is 170 billion tonnes of CO2, which is projected to be exhausted by 2030 at current emission rates.
    • The 1.5°C budget is “virtually exhausted”.
• Impact of Emission Growth on Earth Systems: The combined land and ocean sinks for carbon are decreasing due to rising emissions, signaling the urgent need for drastic reductions in emissions to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.

Warnings from the Global Carbon Project

• Decarbonisation Not Fast Enough: The report underscores that global efforts are not strong enough to avert dangerous climate impacts.
• Renewables vs Fossil Fuels: Renewables have edged out coal as the dominant source of electricity globally; However, the rising energy demand ensures continued high use of fossil fuels.
• Flattening Emissions Not Sufficient: Global emissions may flatten and start declining around 2030, but this will still be insufficient to meet the 1.5°C limit under the Paris Agreement.
• Carbon Budget Warning: At current emission rates, the world is dangerously close to exhausting the remaining carbon budget required to stay within the 1.5°C threshold.

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About Global Carbon Project

• The Global Carbon Project is an international research initiative under the Future Earth program, focusing on global sustainability.
• It is a research partner of the World Climate Research Programme.
• The project aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions.
• The research explores the interactions and feedbacks between these dimensions.
• The Global Carbon Budget 2025 marks the 20th edition of the annual update, which began in 2006.

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