Nearly two-thirds of India’s population faces flood risks, but only a third have access to early warning systems.

India’s Monsoon Woes: Floods, Droughts, and Shifting Climate Patterns

• The monsoon season this year in India has been one of the worst in recent times, with recurrent flooding impacting most States. 
• According to a 2021 study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), approximately 40% of districts in India experience alternating climatic hazards, which means that flood-prone regions are also facing droughts during the dry season and vice-versa. 

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• An analysis of 40 years of rainfall data by CEEW shows that there has been an increase of up to 64% in heavy rainfall days during the monsoons over the last decade.
• There is a need for India to invest in enhancing weather forecasting and bringing technological innovation to the forefront, as a safety net, to address the growing extreme weather risks.

Current Weather Prediction Methods in India

• Data Utilisation: India relies on satellite data and computer models for weather predictions. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) utilises the INSAT series of satellites and supercomputers such as Mihir and Prathyush to analyse weather patterns.
• Data Source: The IMD employs various sources for data, including manned and automatic weather stations, aircraft, ships, weather balloons, ocean buoys, and satellites.
• • IMD is also increasingly using Doppler radars to improve efficiency in predictions.
  • Doppler radar is a specialised radar that uses the Doppler effect to produce velocity data about objects at a distance.
    • They are used to predict rainfall in the immediate vicinity, making predictions more timely and accurate.
    • The number of Doppler radars has increased from 15 in 2013 to 37 in 2023.

• Key Variables: Forecasters examine factors such as cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapour content to estimate rainfall and track cyclones.
• Forecasting Process: The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology issues the first long-range monsoon forecast in April every year, updating it at the end of May and revising it monthly.

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Significance of Accurate Weather Predictions

• Preparedness Benefits: High-accuracy weather predictions are vital for better preparation against extreme weather events, facilitating timely warnings, coordinating power supplies, and advising farmers on crop protection.
• Public Safety: Clear and accurate predictions enhance public safety by providing timely warnings about severe weather, allowing individuals and organisations to take necessary precautions. 
  • Example: Lightning strikes are the number one cause of nature-propelled deaths in India and were responsible for 2,821 accidental deaths attributable to natural forces in 2022, according to the latest NCRB report.
• Resource Management: Accurate predictions help in effective resource allocation, such as deploying emergency services and distributing relief materials during disasters.
  • Example: Accurate predictions during Cyclone Amphan in 2020 enabled the evacuation of over a million people and effective resource allocation in West Bengal and Odisha.

Challenges Related to Weather Forecasting In India

• Inadequate Weather Monitoring Ground Stations:  There are a total requirement of more than 3,00,000 ground stations (AWS/ARG) and around 70 DWRs.
  • However, currently, IMD operates around 800 automatic weather stations (AWS), 1,500 automatic rain gauges (ARG) and 37 doppler weather radars (DWR).
  • This results in data collection gaps especially in rural and remote areas which hinder real-time data collection, causing forecasts to rely on outdated historical rainfall patterns.
• Technological Constraints: India faces limited resources for advanced forecasting technology due to budget constraints.
  • Example: Only five radars monitor the entire west coast of India.
  • Ahmedabad (Gujarat), Bengaluru (Karnataka), and Jodhpur (Rajasthan), which have faced repeated flooding recently, do not have radars as yet.
• Climate Change: Extreme weather events, influenced by climate change, have become more frequent and unpredictable, making the annual monsoon more challenging to forecast, significant disasters (e.g., landslides in Kerala, lake outbursts in Sikkim and Uttarakhand).
• Accuracy Issues: IMD’s forecasts have improved over the past decade but still struggles with local accuracy. 
  • Example: Inaccurate rainfall predictions for Mumbai on about 40% of days in July, 2024 as per the report of Indian Express.
• Ineffective Coordination with Local Authorities: Hinders timely responses to weather warnings. 
  • Example: In October 2023, heavy rainfall and floods in Uttarakhand showed poor coordination, as local authorities delayed responding to IMD’s early warnings.
• Varied Climate Zones: India’s diverse geography means that weather patterns can differ significantly across regions, complicating the forecasting process.
  • The presence of mountains, plains, and coastlines can lead to localised weather phenomena that are difficult to predict

Initiatives Related to Weather Forecasting in India

• Mission Mausam: It was approved in September 2024 with a ₹2,000 crore budget.
  • Nodal Body: The Ministry of Earth Sciences. 
  • Implementing Institutes: It is Implemented by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
  • Aim: The mission focuses on expanding the observation network with advanced instruments and enhancing forecasting accuracy through improved atmospheric physics and machine learning. 
    • It targets high climate risk areas and ensures data accessibility for sectors like energy, agriculture, and water management, enabling a transition to hyperlocal extreme weather forecasting for better preparedness and response.
• National Monsoon Mission: Initiated by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in 2012 to transition from historical pattern reliance to real-time data collection.
  • Under the Monsoon Mission, the Ministry has developed state-of-the-art weather and climate prediction models.
  • Example: Models for short range to medium range (1-10 days), extended range (10 days to 30 days) and seasonal (up to one season). 
• Mausam App: IMD launched an integrated GIS based interactive mobile app MAUSAM for all weather-related services like current weather, Rainfall, Humidity, Sunrise/Sunset, Moonrise/Moonset etc.
  • The app supports 12 Indian languages for varied users in India.
• Mausamgram: It is an IMD tool that gives real-time weather updates and forecasts for specific locations. 
  • Available on the “Mausam” app and website, it provides hourly and 3-6 hourly forecasts for up to 10 days using place names or pincodes.
• WAFES: WAFES (Weather Analysis and Forecast Enabling System) is an in-house Web-GIS-based decision support system developed by IMD inspired by Pancha Mahabhuta i.e. Water, Air, Fire, Earth and Sky. 
  • It provides real-time information for various sectors such as Urban, Power, Hydrology, Health, Energy, Agriculture, Transport and Tourism under the “UPHHEATT” initiative (for the cause of welfare).
• Panchayat Mausam Sewa for Farmers: The Panchayat Mausam Sewa Portal, developed by IMD, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Ministry of Panchayati Raj, and Green Alert Mausam Sewa.
  • It provides weather forecasts in English, Hindi, and 12 regional languages to panchayat heads and secretaries, ensuring weather updates reach every village in India.
• National Framework of Climate Services (NFCS): The NFCS, introduced by IMD, offers climatology data on key weather parameters and extremes, updated every 10 years. 
  • IMD has digitised data since 1901 and provides public access to climate visualisations and vulnerability maps. 
  • Since 2021, monthly and seasonal climate forecasts have been available. 

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Way Forward For Enhancing Weather Forecasting In India

• Enhanced Data Collection
  • Denser Instrument Networks: Install a greater number of weather monitoring instruments (e.g., rain gauges, temperature sensors) across localised areas to gather more granular data.
  • Mobile Weather Stations: Deploy mobile weather stations in critical areas to provide real-time data during extreme weather events.
  • Private Cooperation: Example: States such as Kerala, Odisha and Maharashtra have sought the help of private agencies to augment IMD’s information.
• Technological Additions: Example: India is set to acquire its fastest supercomputer by next year for ₹900 crore, three times faster than existing systems, improving block-level weather forecasts.
  • Prioritise installing weather observation platforms on India’s western coast and in large urban centres facing high climate risks.
  • The government intends to add 25 more Doppler radars in the next two to three years.
• Integration of Technology: Greater use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) for hyperlocal rainfall forecasts through pattern recognition and anomaly detection.
  • Example:  Experimental models from IIT-Bombay have shown promising results, achieving higher accuracy than IMD.
• Utilise Communication Strategies: There is a need to create tailored weather information for local communities and disseminate the same using various channels such as mobile apps, social media, community radio etc to effectively reach a wider audience.
• Engage local communities in weather observation: Example: India’s Citizen Weather Observer Program encourages local residents to act as weather observers by reporting daily weather conditions through a mobile app. 
• Open Access to Weather Data: Make weather data openly available for researchers and entrepreneurs to develop use cases for better understanding of the causes behind extreme weather events. 
  • It also helps in the creation of localised early warning tools. 
    • Example: United States, United Kingdom, France, and the European Union have made their weather forecasting data available on cloud for anyone to access. 
• Public Feedback Mechanism: Create channels for the public and local authorities to provide feedback on forecast accuracy, allowing for continuous refinement of prediction models.

Conclusion

Accurate weather predictions are crucial for India, one of the nations most vulnerable to climate change. They enable better preparedness through early warnings for heat and rainfall, coordination of power supplies, and guidance for farmers to safeguard their crops.

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The 16th Conference of Parties (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is set to begin in Cali, Colombia.

• It is the first time the Parties are meeting since the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) was adopted in 2022. 

About Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

• Also known as the Biodiversity Convention or UNCBD, it’s a multilateral treaty aimed at conserving biological diversity, ensuring sustainable use of its components, and promoting fair sharing of benefits from genetic resources utilization.
• The CBD was made available for signature on June 5, 1992, during the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit and officially came into force on December 29, 1993.
• Ratification: It is a legally binding treaty and has been ratified by 196 countries. Notably, the United States is the only UN member state that has not ratified it.
  • India is also a party to the Convention.
• CBD’s Governing Body: Conference of Parties (COP) 
  • It consists of the governments that have ratified the treaty.
• Secretariat: Montreal, Canada.
• Three Objectives:
  • Conservation of biological diversity (genetic diversity, species diversity, and habitat diversity).
  • Sustainable use of biological diversity.
  • The fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources.
• Two internationally binding agreements were adopted within the framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
  • Cartagena Protocol: Adopted in 2000 and entered into force in 2003. 
    • It regulates the transboundary movement of Living Modified Organisms (LMOs)
  • The Nagoya Protocol: Adopted in 2010
    • It establishes a legally binding framework for access to genetic resources and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising from their use.

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• Aichi Targets adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD):
  • COP-10 adopted a ten-year framework for action to save biodiversity known as “Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020”. 
  • It has provided a set of 20 ambitious yet achievable targets.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)

• Adoption: The 15th Conference of Parties (COP15) to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) 2022. 
• Aim: To protect 30% of the planet by 2030 to reverse ecosystem degradation.
• Targets: The framework has 4 goals and 23 targets that the world needs to achieve by 2030.
  • It will replace Aichi Biodiversity Targets.

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Recently, Odisha has started preparing for a possible impact from Cyclone Dana in the coastal areas.

• The cyclone will be called “Dana” (a beautiful, precious pearl in Arabic), a name given by Qatar.
• Cyclone Dana is expected to make a landfall over the coastal states of West Bengal and Odisha

About Cyclones and Circulation Patterns

• A cyclone is a large-scale air mass rotating around a strong centre of low atmospheric pressure.
• These can be classified on the basis of their origin into tropical and extratropical cyclones.
• The wind around a low-pressure system in a cyclone is called cyclonic circulation, while around a high-pressure system, it’s called anticyclonic circulation.
• Types of Cyclones: Cyclones fall into two main categories
  • Tropical Cyclones: form between the Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer, developing over tropical or subtropical waters, where they organize into surface wind circulation patterns.
  • Extra-tropical cyclones (Temprate cyclones): typically occur in temperate and high-latitude regions, originating even from the Polar Regions.
• The table given below shows Pressure Systems and Wind Circulation Patterns.

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About Tropical Cyclone

• They are confined to the area lying between 30° N and 30° S latitudes in the atmosphere.
• Cyclones in India:  Tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region develop during the pre-monsoon (April to June) and post-monsoon (October to December) periods.
• Required condition for a Cyclone:
• • Sea surface with high temperature (above 27^0).
  • Presence of coriolis effect for the creation of a cyclonic vortex.
  • Small variations in the vertical wind speed.
  • Latent heat for driving storm’s energy
  • Upper level divergence above the Sea Level System.

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone

• It is a Violent Storms originate over oceans in tropical areas.
• Eye of a Tropical Cyclone: Eye has the lowest surface pressure and warmest temperatures and air descends at the centre. 
  • At the centre: Roughly circular calm area of comparatively light winds and fair weather 
  • Temperature: Only 0-2°C warmer at the surface in the tropical cyclone
• Driving Force: Latent Heat of Evaporation released by the condensation of moist rising air over oceans is the driving engine 
• Path: They move in a parabolic path towards the west under the influence of trade winds.

Cyclone Naming Protocol

• Rotational Basis: Cyclone names are assigned on a rotational basis by countries in a pre-determined list. 
• Regional Meteorological Centers: Worldwide, Six specialized regional meteorological centers (RSMCs) and five regional Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) are mandated for issuing advisories and naming tropical cyclones.
• IMD’s Role: Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is one of the RSMCs providing advisories and naming for the north Indian Ocean Including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
• Member Countries: IMD serves 13 member countries under the WMO/Economic and Social Commission for Asia-Pacific (ESCAP) Panel.
• • These are Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
• Current list has a total of 169 names including 13 names each from 13 WMO/ESCAP member countries. 

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Worldwide Terminology of Tropical Cyclones

• Typhoons: China Sea & Pacific Ocean; 
• Hurricanes: West Indian islands in the Caribbean Sea & Atlantic Ocean; 
• Tornados: Guinea lands of West Africa and southern USA; 
• Willy-willies: North-western Australia 

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• The regional assembly of Portugal’s Azores Islands approved the creation of the largest protected marine area in the North Atlantic to reach international conservation goals well ahead of time.

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About Azores Islands

• Location: It is a group of nine islands in the North Atlantic region.
• Origin: Volcanic 
• It lies above the Azores Triple Junction.
  • Azores Triple Junction: A junction where three of the world’s main tectonic plates (Eurasian, North American, and African) meet.
• Mount Pico is the highest point on the archipelago.
• The archipelago, alongside Madeira, Cape Verde, and the Canary Islands, is part of Macaronesia.
• São Miguel is the largest island.
• The Azores Islands have unique flora and fauna due to their location in the Palearctic realm.

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A week after Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan assigned an Agriculture Ministry official the additional charge of Managing Director at NAFED, the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet (ACC) shifted the responsibility to an official from the Ministry of Cooperation.

About National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED)

• NAFED is an apex organization of marketing cooperatives for agricultural produce in India.
• It is registered under the Multi-State Co-operative Societies Act, 2002.
• It comes under the Ministry of Agriculture.
• Founded on: 2 October 1958 
• Role: To promote the trade of agricultural produce and forest resources across the nation.
• Headquarters : New Delhi, 
• Four regional offices: Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata
  • 28 zonal offices in capitals of states and important cities.

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About Appointments Committee of the Cabinet (ACC)

• Chaired by: Prime Minister 
• Ministerial Members: Union Minister of Home Affairs and Union Minister of  Cooperation
• Role: Responsible for appointing senior officials to key positions in the Central government, public sector undertakings and autonomous bodies.

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A recent discovery has shed light on how single-celled phytoplankton, specifically the bioluminescent species Pyrocystis noctiluca, can inflate to six times their original size to reach the ocean’s surface.

• The researchers discovered that P. noctiluca cells behave more like little submarines which can control their density so they can choose where they want to reach the ocean’s surface.

About Pyrocystis Noctiluca

• It is a unicellular marine plankton that produces bioluminescence in response to water movement.
  • Bioluminescent plankton: Tiny organisms that produce light through a chemical reaction in their bodies
• Bioluminescence occurs through the combination of luciferin (protein) and luciferase (enzyme).
• Habitat: Found in tropical and subtropical seas and oceans.
• Density and Movement: They are denser than seawater, So It swells at the start of its life cycle reducing its density and rising in the water column.
• Life Cycle: It Has a seven-day life cycle, during which it divides into two daughter cells as it sinks.

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About Plankton

• Plankton refers to small organisms that drift with ocean currents and cannot swim well enough to move against them. They can be microscopic or larger species like jellyfish and crustaceans.
  • The term “plankton” comes from the Greek word meaning “drifter” or “wanderer,” highlighting their inability to swim against water currents.
• Classification of Plankton: The two main categories are:
  • Phytoplankton: Plant-like organisms.
  • Zooplankton: Animal-like organisms.

About Phytoplankton

• Phytoplankton are microscopic plants, but they play a huge role in the marine food web. 
• Phytoplankton perform photosynthesis to convert the sun’s rays into energy to support them, and they take in carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. 
• Because they need the sun’s energy, phytoplankton are found near the water’s surface.
• Phytoplankton include a wide variety of marine autotrophs →  Like Diatoms, Dinoflagellates, Cryptomonads, Green algae, Blue green algae, etc.

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Significance of Phytoplanktons

• Contribute more than half of the oxygen in the environment.
• Reduce global warming by absorbing human-induced carbon dioxide.
• Serve as the base of the ocean food chain.
• Important bioindicators regulating life in ocean → Abundance determines the overall health of the ocean ecosystem.

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Initially, a historic hurricane season was predicted in 2024 due to a strong La Niña. However, there were no major hurricanes during the summer.

• La Niña did not develop as strongly as expected, and forecasts have been downgraded.

2023 Hurricane Season and Record Warming

• 2023 Season: Despite a strong El Niño, the 2023 hurricane season was the fourth most active in history. Typically, El Niño reduces hurricanes, while La Niña increases them.
• Uncertainty: Meteorologists are unsure if global warming has affected the connection between hurricanes and El Niño/La Niña.

About Cyclone Forecasting models

• These are computer programs that use meteorological data to forecast the future state of tropical cyclones. 
• Types of cyclone forecasting models
  • Statisticals Models: It uses historical data to predict the future state of cyclones. 
  • Dynamical Models: It uses math equations and meteorological data to predict cyclone behavior. 
  • Combined Statistical – Dynamical Models: This model combines both statistical and dynamical approach to forecast cyclone behavior. 

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Cyclone Forecasting Challenges

• Accuracy: Cyclone forecasts have improved in predicting landfall but still struggle with forecasting cyclone intensity.
• Post-Landfall: Forecasters have difficulty predicting the damage caused by cyclones after landfall, such as rain and strong winds, which lead to significant destruction.
• Cyclones and Climate Change
  • Cyclone Numbers: While the total number of cyclones hasn’t increased globally, the number of strong cyclones has gone up.
  • Warming Oceans: Cyclones get their energy from warm ocean waters, and rising sea temperatures are making cyclones intensify quickly, a phenomenon that is hard to predict.
• North Indian Ocean Cyclones
  • Trend: The number of cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, particularly the Arabian Sea, has been rising, but predictions about their seasonal activity remain difficult.

India’s Progress and Vulnerabilities

Good News: Forecasting Improvements

• Advances in Forecasting: India has improved its cyclone forecasts, and its disaster management has helped reduce the loss of lives during cyclones.
• Cyclone Size: Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, tend to be smaller and less intense compared to other regions.
• Bad News: Climate Stressors
  • Chronic Stressors: Long-term climate issues like rising sea levels, warming temperatures, and extreme rainfall patterns are increasing.
  • Acute Stressors: Events like cyclones, heatwaves, and flash droughts are becoming more severe, making the effects of chronic stressors worse. 
    • For example, rising sea levels increase the risk of flooding from cyclones.
• Tamil Nadu Example
  • Heavy Rain and Flooding: Tamil Nadu has been experiencing heavy rainfall and flooding yearly due to warmer ocean temperatures, extending the monsoon seasons.

Importance of Weather Forecasting in India

• Agriculture and Food Security
  • India’s agriculture depends heavily on the monsoon, which provides 70-80% of the annual rainfall. 
    • Accurate weather forecasts help farmers plan activities like sowing, irrigation, harvesting, managing crops, and controlling pests and diseases.
• Disaster Management
  • India is vulnerable to disasters like cyclones, floods, heatwaves, and droughts. 
    • Weather forecasting helps reduce the damage caused by these events by enabling better disaster planning and response.
• Reducing Economic Losses
  • Agriculture: Weather events like droughts and poor monsoons can damage crops and cause financial losses for farmers. Accurate forecasts help minimize these losses.
  • Energy Sector: Weather affects energy sources like hydropower and solar power. Forecasts help in efficient management, ensuring steady energy supply and reducing financial losses.
• Construction and Urban Planning
  • Weather forecasts are important for scheduling construction projects, especially during the monsoon and winter. They help avoid delays, ensure worker safety, and reduce costs.
• Transport and Logistics
  • Accurate weather predictions are key for safe and efficient transportation by road, rail, and sea. For example, fog forecasts in winter help manage flight schedules and prevent accidents. 
• Public Health and Safety
  • Weather forecasts improve public health and safety. For example, warnings of extreme temperatures help prevent heat-related illnesses like heat stroke.
• Water Resource Management
  • Forecasts are important for managing water resources, such as planning irrigation and controlling water levels in reservoirs.

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Way Forward

• Hyperlocal Risk Mapping
  • Need for Better Predictions: India needs better predictions for cyclone intensity, landfall, and post-landfall effects.
  • Hyperlocal Planning: Creating detailed risk maps for specific areas can help India prepare better, as it is expensive to cover all regions for cyclone risks.
• Economic Development and National Security
  • Climate and National Security: India’s climate vulnerabilities are also national security issues. 
    • India’s climate vulnerabilities are intrinsically linked to national security issues, as they can lead to social unrest, resource conflicts, and economic instability. 
• Solutions
  • Regional Climate Networks: India should build weather and climate networks that include its neighboring countries to improve predictions and manage climate risks in the region.

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The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence has selected 17 topics for deliberation this year, one of which focuses on the Indian armed forces’ preparedness to handle non-kinetic or hybrid warfare.

Strengthening India’s Defence: Key Focus Areas

• Hybrid Warfare Preparedness: The panel will study the armed forces’ ability to counter hybrid warfare, which combines both traditional military methods (kinetic) and modern tactics like cyberattacks (non-kinetic).
• Other topics to review
  • Strategic Preparedness:
    • The committee will assess the strategic preparedness of India’s armed forces, including border security and the stand-off with China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
  • Indigenous Defence Production:
    • The panel will review the progress in indigenous production of military equipment to reduce reliance on foreign imports.
  • Ex-Servicemen Welfare:
    • Policies related to resettlement, healthcare, and other welfare measures for ex-servicemen will also be discussed, along with assessing policies for the families of fallen soldiers.

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About Non-Kinetic Warfare

Non-kinetic warfare focuses on achieving military goals without relying on physical combat or traditional weapons. Instead, it uses modern, non-physical methods.

• Non-kinetic warfare involves methods beyond traditional combat, such as electronic, cyber, and information warfare.
• It can include attacks on infrastructure like power grids and hospitals, disrupting critical systems without physical combat.
• Key Characteristics of Non-Kinetic Warfare:
  • Cyberattacks:
    • This involves targeting a country’s digital infrastructure, such as power grids, financial systems, or communication networks, to disrupt normal operations.
  • Information Warfare:
    • Manipulating information, spreading disinformation, or controlling media to influence public opinion or undermine trust in institutions.
  • Psychological Operations:
    • Using psychological tactics to weaken an enemy’s morale, create fear, or spread confusion among troops or civilians.
  • Economic Sanctions:
    • Imposing financial and trade restrictions on a country to weaken its economy and force political or military concessions without direct conflict.

Non-Kinetic Warfare vs Kinetic Warfare

Significance of Non-Kinetic Warfare in Modern Conflicts

• Achieving Objectives Without Direct Combat
  • Non-kinetic warfare helps achieve military goals without the need for physical confrontation or traditional weapons.
• Cost-Effective Approach
  • It is often more affordable than conventional warfare, as it relies on tactics like cyberattacks and information control, which require fewer resources.
• Reducing Civilian Casualties
  • Since there is no direct physical conflict, this method minimizes the risk of harming civilians and causing destruction to infrastructure.
• Global Impact
  • Non-kinetic tactics can be carried out from anywhere in the world, allowing nations to influence or disrupt targets across the globe.

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Challenges Faced by Indian Armed Forces in Preparing for Non-Kinetic Warfare

• Rapid Technology Changes
  • Technology is changing quickly, allowing enemies to use new methods like cyber and electronic attacks. This makes it hard for the armed forces to keep up.
• Cybersecurity Risks
  • Protecting important systems like power grids and communication networks from cyberattacks is very important. 
    • These attacks can harm a country without any physical fighting.
• Information Warfare
  • False information and propaganda can change how people think and create problems within the country. 
    • It is challenging to stop these lies and keep information accurate.
• Economic and Diplomatic Challenges
  • Non-kinetic warfare can include things like economic sanctions and cutting off diplomatic relations, which can weaken a country’s power and economy.
• Working with Non-Military Groups
• • Non-kinetic warfare often needs cooperation with non-military organizations, such as government agencies and private businesses, which makes teamwork essential.
• Ethical Considerations
  • Economic Sanctions: These sanctions pressurize the government and can cause poverty and suffering to the general public.
  • Accountability: Non-Kinetic Warfare can make it difficult to identify and attribute a specific actor which can complicate accountability and the justice system. 
  • Disinformation: Wrong information and propaganda used by manipulators can create a sense of fear among people and  destabilize societies.  

Possible Solutions

• Investing in Technology
  • The armed forces should keep spending money on new technology and improving cyber defenses to stay ahead of potential threats.
• Regular Training
  • The military should have regular training sessions to teach personnel about cyber and information warfare to improve their skills.
• Public Awareness Campaigns
  • Educating people about false information and cyber threats can help create a stronger and more aware society.
• International Cooperation
  • Working with other countries on cybersecurity and information warfare can help share intelligence and resources to tackle these issues together.
• Strong Policies and Laws
  • Creating clear policies and laws to deal with non-kinetic threats can help the armed forces respond effectively and stay organized.

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The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UNFCCC will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024.

• The conference is expected to focus on key climate finance issues, making it a significant event for discussions on funding climate action.

What Is Climate Finance?

• According to the UNFCCC, climate finance refers to funding from various sources (public, private, or alternative) aimed at supporting efforts to mitigate or adapt to climate change.
• It can originate from both private and public sources and is often facilitated by intermediaries like multilateral development banks and other agencies that transfer resources from developed to developing countries

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• OECD Reports: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) provides reports on climate finance from developed to developing countries, covering four key sources, including international public finance.
  • Types of Finance: International public finance consists of loans, grants, equity, and other financial instruments.2022 Figures: In 2022, loans made up 69.4% of climate finance, while grants accounted for 28%.
• Obligations of Developed Countries
  • Developed nations are obligated to provide new and additional financial resources to low and middle-income countries under the UN Climate Convention.
  • The 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to limit global warming and includes financial mechanisms to support mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Key funds and Mechanisms

• Green Climate Fund (GCF): World’s largest climate fund.
  • Is established under UNFCCC.
  • It helps developing nations to combat emissions. 
• Adaptation Fund (AF):  This fund finances vulnerable communities to adapt to changes in the climate in the developing nations. 
  • It allows institutions working on the national level to manage projects and access financing directly. 
• Global Environment Facility (GEF); It is a mechanism that grants funding to developing nations to resolve environmental issues. 

Principles of Climate Finance

• ‘polluters pays’ principle: According to this principle, the person producing pollution is liable to bear the cost of its management for preventing damage to the environment. 
• Common but Differentiated Responsibility and Respective Capability (CBDR–RC): This principle states that developing countries have more responsibility (all countries are also responsible to combat climate change issues)  to address environmental issues. 
  • It is because of their historical emissions and great capacity to act. 

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Why Are Developing Countries More Vulnerable to Climate Change?

• Geographical Factors: Developing countries often have geographic features that make them more susceptible to climate impacts.
• Economic Dependence: These nations rely heavily on agriculture, which is sensitive to climate change.
• Limited Resources: They typically have fewer financial and human resources to adapt to climate changes or recover from climate-related disasters.
• Low Emission Contribution: Despite their vulnerability, developing countries have contributed little to global emissions, with developed countries responsible for 57% of cumulative emissions since 1850.
• Competing Development Needs: Developing countries face many developmental challenges, making it hard for them to focus solely on climate actions.

Challenges in Climate Finance

• Tracking Financial Flows: Measuring and monitoring where and how climate finance is used can be complex.
• Equitable Support: Ensuring fair financial assistance to developing countries for emission reductions and adaptation is challenging.
• Private Sector Incentives: Creating effective incentives for private investments in climate initiatives can be difficult.

Who Needs Climate Finance?

• Need for External Funding: Developing countries require external financial support for effective climate action.
• Access to Electricity: In 2021, 675 million people in developing countries lacked access to electricity, highlighting the need for increased energy consumption.
• Higher Costs of Capital: Developing countries face higher capital costs for renewable technologies, with costs for solar technology approximately twice as high compared to developed nations.
• Balancing Development and Climate Action: Access to external finance is crucial for these countries to achieve sustainable development while addressing climate change.

India’s Climate Finance Needs

• Climate Targets: India aims to achieve significant climate goals by 2030, including:
  • 500 GW of renewable energy capacity.
  • 5 million metric tonnes of green hydrogen production capacity.
  • Increased penetration of Electric Vehicles (EVs).
• Estimated Investments:
  • To achieve 450 GW of renewable energy, an additional investment of ₹16.8 lakh crore is needed.
  • The green hydrogen target will require ₹8 lakh crore.
• Long-Term Investment Needs: To achieve net-zero emissions, India will need about ₹850 lakh crore from 2020 to 2070.

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India’s Initiatives regarding Climate Finance

• National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC): Launched in 2015.
  • It helps States and Union Territories in India to address the issue and impact of climate change. 
  • Objective: It focuses on supporting adaptation activities in various regions vulnerable to climate change. 
    • It operates in project mode.
• National Clean Energy Fund: Set up in 2010. 
  • Objective: It aims to promote and fund clean energy projects, development of innovative clean energy technologies, and research. 
  • Projects supported: This fund supports various initiatives such as the Green Energy Corridor, Namami Gange, and the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission.

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Recently, New research by South African ecologists has refuted the claim that the African Baobab (Adansonia digitata) tree is dying due to climate change.

African Baobab Background

• 2018 Study: Published in Nature Plants, claimed 10 of 15 oldest and largest African baobabs were dying due to climate change.
• New Study (2024): Conducted by South African ecologists, refutes the 2018 claim, stating baobabs are not dying due to climate change.
  

African Baobab, Key Findings

• Speculative Claim: The 2018 climate change claim was speculative and went viral, misleading public perception.
• Baobab Resilience:
  • Baobabs are resilient and have historically survived extreme climate fluctuations such as droughts and floods.
• Tree populations in mainland Africa are thriving, including the oldest and largest baobabs.
• Deaths reported in the 2018 study were due to natural causes like hydraulic failure and excess water retention, not climate change.

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About Baobab Trees

• The trees belong to the genus Adansonia, which comprises eight distinct species.
• Origin of Lineage: According to DNA studies, the trees first arose in Madagascar 21 million years ago. 
  • Their seeds were later carried on ocean currents to Australia and also to mainland Africa, evolving into distinct species.
• Characteristics: Baobabs are known for their great heights, with some extending up to 50 metres, and exceptionally long lifespans going up to 1,000 years. 
  • In India too, a few baobab trees exist, including one near the Golconda Fort in Andhra Pradesh that is believed to be more than 400 years old.
• Keystone Species:  It is a Keystone Species which provide “essential resources, such as food or shelter, for a guild of animals in return for which the guild of animals provides an essential service, or mobile links, such as pollination or diaspore dispersal.”
• Role of Baobabs in Ecosystem: 
  • Known as the ‘Tree of Life’, baobabs are crucial to African ecosystems, providing food and shelter for wildlife and humans.
  • The fruit of the baobab tree is a rich source of income for farmers and is recognized for its high nutritional value (Vitamin C, potassium, calcium, antioxidants, fibre).
• Cultural and Socio-economic Significance:
  • Cultural Role: Baobabs are deeply embedded in African traditions, and their parts (leaves, fruits, seeds, trunks) are used for sustenance and medicinal purposes.
  • Economic Potential: Baobab fruit is considered a “superfruit” with potential to expand a market worth $10 million.

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A report titled “Nonylphenol — An Endocrine Disrupting Chemical” was released by Toxics Link, an environmental research organisation, and the US-based non-profit Environmental Defense Fund.

About Nonylphenol Ethoxylates (NPEs) and Nonylphenol (NP)

• Chemical Characteristics:
  • NPEs and NP are surfactants contributing to environmental pollution, including frothing in rivers like the Yamuna, indicating high pollutant levels.
  • These chemicals are recognized as endocrine disruptors, toxic to aquatic life, and harmful to human health, particularly impacting reproductive and developmental systems.

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• Regulatory Status:
  • Many countries have banned the use of NPEs in detergents.
  • India lacks specific regulations for NPEs, though NP was banned in the cosmetics sector in 2009.
• Industrial Usage: NP and NPEs are widely used in industries such as textiles, leather, detergents, cleaning products, paper, food packaging, cosmetics, construction, automotive, agrochemicals, paints, and metalworking fluids.
• Health and Ecological Concerns:
  • Aquatic Life Toxicity: NP is toxic to fish, plants, and invertebrates, causing poisoning, reduced survival, impaired growth, and reproductive failure.
  • Human Health Risks: NP mimics estrogen, leading to hormonal imbalances, reproductive disorders, and increased cancer risks.
  • Environmental Persistence: NP is resistant to degradation, remaining in ecosystems for long periods and potentially entering the human food chain.
• Recommendations for Safer Alternatives:
  • The transition to safer, cost-effective, and viable alternatives to NP and NPEs is recommended, but progress in India has been slow.

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Naseem-Al-Bahr

Context: Recently, Indo-Oman bilateral naval exercise Naseem-Al-Bahr was held in Goa.

About Exercise Naseem-Al-Bahr

• It was Initiated in 1993
• Oman is the first Gulf country with which all the three wings of India’s defense forces hold joint exercises. 
  • Exercise Al-Najah → Army exercise 
  • Exercise Eastern Bridge → Air Force exercise 
• Participants: INS Trikand and Dornier Maritime Patrol Aircraft
• The exercise was conducted in two phases: with the harbor phase followed by the sea phase.

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Exercise Malabar

Context: Recently, “Exercise Malabar” was concluded on the coast of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh

About Exercise Malabar

• Participation:  India, Australia, Japan, U.S.
• It was started in 1992, as a bilateral naval exercise between India and US navy 
• Expansion: 
• • In 2015 → Inclusion of Japan 
  • In 2020 → Australian Navy joined → Making it a quadrilateral naval exercise.
• It takes place annually, alternatively in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans.
• Aim: To strengthen cooperation and security in the Indo-Pacific region. 
• It supports India’s vision of Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR)

Copper plates from Vijayanagara Kingdom

Context: Copper plate inscriptions from the 16th Century CE, bearing the Vijayanagara Kingdom’s seal, were recently discovered at the Sri Singeeswarar temple in Mappedu village, Tiruvallur district.

Details of the Inscription

• Era: The inscriptions date back to the 16th Century CE, specifically to the year 1513 during the reign of Krishnadevaraya of the Vijayanagara Empire.
• Script and Language: The inscriptions are written in Sanskrit using the Nandinagari script.
  • Nandinagar is a Brahmic script derived from the Nāgarī script that was used between the 11th and 19th centuries AD 
  • For producing manuscripts and inscriptions in Sanskrit in south Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. 
• Village Donation: The inscription records the donation of the village Vasalabattaka, renamed Krishnarayapura, by King Krishnadevaraya.
• Beneficiaries: The village was gifted to several Brahmins.
• Boundaries: It details the boundaries of the donated village, which was under the control of the Raja of Chandragiri (modern-day Tirupati district, Andhra Pradesh).

About Sri Singeeswarar temple at Mappedu

• Deity: Singeeswarar Temple is dedicated to Lord Shiva.
• Construction: The temple was built in 976 A.D. by Aditya Karikalan Chola II, the elder brother of Rajaraja Chola.

About Krishnadevaraya

• Reign: Krishnadevaraya belonged to the Tuluva Dynasty and ruled the Vijayanagara Empire from 1509-1529 AD.
• Contributions: He is credited with constructing fine temples and adding gopurams (gateway towers) to several significant South Indian temples.
  • He founded Nagalapuram, near Vijayanagar, in honour of his mother.
  • He composed a Telugu work on statecraft known as Amuktamalyada.

About Vijayanagara Empire

• Foundation: The Vijayanagara Empire was founded in 1336 AD by Harihara and Bukka of the Sangama Dynasty.
• Capital: Hampi. 
  • It was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1986.
• Geographical Extent: The empire stretched from the river Krishna in the north to the extreme south of the Indian peninsula.
• Dynasties of Vijayanagara: The Vijayanagara Empire was ruled by four major dynasties: Sangama Dynasty, Saluva Dynasty, Tuluva Dynasty and Aravidu Dynasty.

Moonlight Program

Context: The European Space Agency (ESA) has launched the Moonlight programme, aiming to create a dedicated satellite constellation for telecommunication and navigation services on the Moon. 

Key Features of the Moonlight Program

• Satellite Constellation: The program will consist of five satellites: one for high-data-rate communications and four for navigation.
• Lunar-Earth Connectivity: The satellites will cover a 400,000 km network, connecting the Moon to Earth via three ground stations.
• Coverage: The Moonlight program will offer coverage at the Moon’s south pole, an area of interest due to the presence of polar ice, which could be used for water, oxygen and rocket fuel.
• Significance: The Moonlight initiative aims to make services like satellite navigation, video conferencing, and data sharing as seamless on the lunar surface as they are on Earth.
  • Enable precise lunar landings, surface mobility, and establish a high-speed, low-latency communication network between Earth and the Moon.
  • The Mission will reduce future lunar mission costs by offering shared communication and navigation infrastructure, eliminating the need for individual setups and is crucial for long-term human presence on the Moon.
  • It will create opportunities for private companies by providing commercial data relay services, fostering a growing lunar-related market.
• Partnerships: Moonlight is a collaboration between ESA, Telespazio, and the UK and Italian space agencies. 
  • ESA is also working with NASA and JAXA on LunaNet, ensuring compatibility with future lunar infrastructure.
• Global Lunar Navigation System: Moonlight will undergo the first lunar navigation interoperability tests in 2029 to support a global communication and navigation system for international space agencies and private entities.

Timeline and Development

• Lunar Pathfinder: The first stage of the Moonlight programme involves launching the Lunar Pathfinder, a communications relay satellite developed by Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd (SSTL), set to begin operations in 2026.
  • The Lunar Pathfinder will provide commercial data relay services and test existing Earth-orbiting navigation satellites for lunar use.
• Full Deployment: The complete deployment of Moonlight’s services is expected by 2030.

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