The credibility of India’s Statistical Systems has come under scrutiny, with concerns about a “decade without data” due to delays in the Census and National Sample Survey (NSS) releases.

About Data Based Policy Making in India

• Definition: Data-based policy making refers to the process of using empirical data and statistical analysis to inform and guide government policies and decisions. 
  • This approach aims to ensure that policies are grounded in objective evidence rather than intuition or anecdotal experiences.

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Significance of Data-Based Policy Making

• Improved Outcomes: Policies informed by data are more likely to achieve desired results, as they are based on evidence rather than assumptions.
• Resource Allocation: Data helps identify needs and prioritise resource allocation effectively, ensuring that interventions target the most pressing issues.
• Informed Citizenry: Engaging citizens with data enhances public understanding and support for policies, fostering a sense of ownership and participation.
• Adaptability: Data-driven approaches allow for more agile responses to changing circumstances and emerging challenges.

Challenges of Data Based Policy Making

• Political Nature of Data: Economists and Policymakers have advocated for more independence and neutrality in data collection, interpretation, and release. 
  • However, the creation of public statistics is influenced by political choices.
  • Without understanding the political influences and motivations behind the data, the statistics may be misleading or less effective in informing decisions and policies. 
  • Example: The way questions are framed in the Census can reflect political priorities.
• Data Paradox: The data paradox refers to the conflicting relationship where despite having more data available than ever before, organisations and decision-makers struggle to effectively use that data for informed decision-making due to Information Overload, Quality issues of Data etc.
• Disparity between statistical narratives and real-world experiences: 
  • Example: The Jan Dhan Yojana led India to break the Guinness World Record in 2014 for opening the most bank accounts in a week. 
    • However, banks set up camps to quickly open accounts but provided no information or passbooks to the residents. 
    • As a result, while direct benefit transfers were deposited, many poor individuals faced difficulties accessing their accounts and welfare subsidies due to illiteracy, documentation challenges, and harassment. 
  • While the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana highlights foodgrain distribution, India’s rank in the Global Hunger Report dropped from 55th in 2014 to 111th in 2023.
• Development vs. Metrics: Meeting statistical targets should not be confused with the achievement of development objectives. 
  • Example: The eShram database, created by the Ministry of Labour and Employment to collect data on migrant workers post-COVID-19, relies on self-declaration. 
    • Many ineligible individuals, such as housewives and farmers, signed up for potential benefits.
    • While it has met enrolment targets, this focus on numbers makes it unclear if it truly helps the intended population.
• Access to Data is difficult in the Digital Era: Previously, public institutions like the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) collected detailed socioeconomic data.
  • With Aadhaar, the state has more data on citizens than ever before.
  • Most eGovernance data is stored in State Data Centres accessed by government divisions and their private partners, and data is irregularly published online.
  • Data collected on citizens is not available to citizens or journalists to hold institutions accountable; only government and private actors have access.
  • However, the data collected through payment apps such as Google Pay and PhonePe are used by FinTech start-ups to create financial products to sell to citizens

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Way Forward For Strengthening Data Systems

• Focus on Citizen Serving Data: Shifting the focus from merely obtaining the “right” data or technical methods to determining what data best supports citizens’ well-being. 
  • For example, while statistics on newly opened bank accounts may be accurate, measuring the proportion of the poor who can access these accounts provides more meaningful insights.
• Inclusive Data Design: Ensuring that digitally collected data is not solely designed for government and start-up use. 
  • There is a need to establish open institutional structures that allow civil society to participate in designing data infrastructure, ensuring that diverse perspectives are included.
  • Data collection should be viewed as a social and political process rather than just a technical task. 
• Social and Political Dimension of Data: Ultimately, Statistics should serve the needs of citizens, rather than citizens being viewed as mere means to achieve statistical targets. 
  • This shift in perspective will help create more effective and responsive data systems.
• Improve the Accessibility of Data to Citizens: Example: Strengthen the ‘Data Portal Of India’.
  • The Data Portal India is a platform for supporting an Open Data initiative of Government of India. 
  • This portal is intended to be used by the Ministries/Department/Organizations of Government of India to publish datasets, and applications for the public use.
• Expansion of Resource base of Data: The National Statistical System needs to expand and diversify its resource base of data. 
  • It should include new and emerging sources like Big Data leverage processing through machine learning and artificial intelligence.
• Strengthening State Statistical Systems: Dholakia Committee Report 2020 on sub-national accounts advocates a bottom-up approach, strengthening the data collection capacities of state governments. 
  • This is crucial as the strength of the national statistical system is dependent on the strength of the state statistical systems.

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Conclusion

Effective data-based policymaking is essential for informed decision-making and improved governance, but it requires addressing challenges like data accessibility, political influences, and the quality of information. 

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Brazil has declined to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), making it the second BRICS member, after India, to opt out of the project.

Brazil becomes second BRICS country after India not to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

• There are several countries which either declined to join BRI or has left BRI.
  • For Example Italy withdrew from the MoU for BRI in December 2023. Italy was the only G7 nation which had signed the MoU in 2029.
• Alternative Collaboration Approach: Brazil aims to foster collaborative opportunities with Chinese investors by aligning on specific Brazilian infrastructure priorities, without committing to a formal BRI framework.
• BRICS Dynamics and India’s Stance: Brazil’s decision aligns it closer to India’s stance, as India has consistently opposed the BRI, especially due to sovereignty concerns over projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
• China’s Perspective: China argues that cooperation with Latin American countries like Brazil aligns with the aspirations of the Global South for a more equitable international economic structure.

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About China’s Belt and Road Initiative or BRI

• The Belt and Road Initiative or BRI was launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping  in 2013.
• Objective: To connect Asia with Europe and Africa, through a network of railways, highways, ports, airports, and other infrastructure projects with the intent to promote trade, investment, and economic growth in participating countries.
• Principal components: The Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road. 
• Geographic Corridors under BRI
  • China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
  • New Eurasian Land Bridge Economic Corridor.
  • China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor.
  • China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor.
  • China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor.
  • China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
• Since India refused to join BRI, the BCIM corridor has also stalled, and has been replaced by a later launched China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
• Renaming from ‘One Belt and one Road’ to to BRI: Earlier, it was named as ‘One Belt One Road’, which brought about numerous misinterpretations, as the partners tend to focus too much on the word “one”, assuming that there is to be only one maritime route and a single land belt.
  • In reality, “The Belt and Road Initiative aims to connect Asia, Europe and Africa along five routes.” Hence it was renamed Belt and Road Initiative.
• Countries Joining BRI: As of now 150 countries have signed documents to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), including China itself.
  • Africa: 44 countries
  • Europe and Central Asia: 34 countries
  • East Asia and Pacific: 25 countries
  • Latin America and Caribbean: 22 countries
  • Middle East and North Africa: 19 countries
  • South East Asia: 6 countries

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India’s stand on China’s Belt and Road Initiative

• India strongly opposes China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), because it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
  • CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) which connects Gwadar Port in Pakistan’s Baluchistan with China’s Xinjiang province is the flagship project of BRI.
• India’s main concern is that this project disregards its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

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OBC reservation in Chhattisgarh’s 3-tier panchayat and urban local bodies would be doubled  from 25 to 50%. 

• New reservation would not apply to bodies where the total reservation for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) is already 50% or more.

Supreme Court’s View on Local Body Reservations

• Key Case: K. Krishnamurthy (Dr.) v. Union of India (2010).
  • Articles Interpreted:
    • Article 243D(6): Allows reservations in Panchayats for backward classes.
    • Article 243T(6): Permits reservations in Municipal bodies for backward classes.
  • SC’s Stand:
    • Barriers to political participation differ from barriers to education and employment.
    • Reservations in local bodies are distinct and should meet specific criteria.
  • Basis for Reservations in Education and Employment: Articles 15(4) and 16(4).

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Triple-Test Formula for OBC Reservations in Local Bodies

• Origin: Laid down by the Supreme Court in K. Krishnamurthy (2010) and reiterated in Vikas Kishanrao Gawali v. State of Maharashtra (2021).
• Three Tests for Valid Reservation:
  1. Commission Setup: A dedicated commission must conduct a detailed inquiry into the backwardness of local bodies.
  2. Empirical Data: The commission should determine the specific proportion of reservation required for each local body.
  3. 50% Cap: Total reservation for SCs, STs, and OBCs must not exceed 50% of total seats.

73rd Constitutional Amendment Act of 1992

• SC/ST Reservation in Panchayats:
  • Seats reserved in proportion to the population in each panchayat area.
  • States can also reserve chairperson offices for SCs/STs in panchayats.
• Women’s Reservation:
  • One-third of total seats reserved for women, including SC/ST women.
• Backward Class Reservation:
  • States can legislate to reserve seats and chairperson offices in panchayats for backward classes.
• Some states have increased the reservation of seats for women to 50%. 
  • For example, in West Bengal, one-third of the councilor positions in each Gram Panchayat are reserved for women, and a share equal to their population is reserved for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.
  • In Bihar, 50% of seats in Panchayat Raj Institutions (PRIs) are reserved for women. Bihar was the first state to implement this reservation in 2006.

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Duration of Reservation in Panchayats (Article 334)

• Expiration: Reservation provisions set for 80 years (until 2030), covering SC/ST seats in panchayats.
• 83rd Constitutional Amendment Act (2000):
  • SC reservation in panchayats does not apply to Arunachal Pradesh due to its indigenous tribal population.

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The 2024 report of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, the 8th edition, reveals that 16 lakh deaths in India in 2021 were due to air pollution.

India Ranked 2nd in Global PM2.5 Emissions in 2022

• India was the world’s second-highest emitter of PM2.5 in 2022  based on both consumption and production-based accounting: 
  • India contributed 15.8 percent of the world’s consumption-based PM2.5 emissions. 
  • The report also underlined that India contributed 16.9 percent of the world’s production-based PM2.5 emissions. 

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Key Findings from the 2024 Lancet Countdown Report on Health and Climate Change

• Air Pollution Related Mortality in India: In 2021, air pollution caused 1.6 million deaths in India.
  • Fossil fuels like coal and liquid gas contributed to 38% of these deaths.
• Heat Stress and Extreme Temperature Exposure

• • In 2023, Indians faced moderate to high heat stress for 2,400 hours or 100 days during light outdoor activities, such as walking.
  • From 2014-2023, infants and adults over 65 experienced 7.7 and 8.4 heatwave days per year, respectively, marking a 47% and 58% increase from 1990-1999.
• Impact on Labour and Economy
  • In 2023, heat exposure led to the loss of 181 billion potential labour hours, translating to an economic loss of approximately $141 billion in labour capacity.
• Global Heat Threats and Climate-Driven Health Risks
  • People worldwide faced 50 more days of health-threatening temperatures than expected in 2023 due to climate change.
  • Extreme drought affected 48% of the global land area, the second-highest level recorded, worsening food insecurity for millions.
• Increased Disease Transmission Due to Climate Change
  • The transmission potential for dengue, spread by Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, rose by 85% from 1951-1960 to 2014-2023.
  • Coastal areas suitable for Vibrio pathogens (linked to cholera) expanded by 23% compared to 1990-1999, affecting over 210 million people near coastal waters.
• Record-Breaking Global Heat in 2023
  • 2023 was the hottest year on record, with severe droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, storms, and floods impacting global health and livelihoods.
  • Heat-related deaths, especially in those over the age of 65 years, rose by 167% over the 1990s.
• Health Effects of Fossil Fuel Pollution
  • Continued fossil fuel and biomass use worsens air quality, raising risks of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and other health issues.
• Progress and Need for Renewable Energy
  • Renewable energy in India supplied 11% of electricity in 2022, a record high.
  • Despite this, 71% of India’s electricity still comes from coal, highlighting the urgent need for accelerated transition to clean energy.

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India reported a slight decrease in the estimated number of tuberculosis (TB) cases and deaths in 2023, according to the Global TB Report released by the World Health Organisation.

Key Findings of the Report

• High Disease Burden: India continues to hold the highest global burden of TB, with over a quarter (26%) of the world’s cases, totaling approximately 28 lakh in 2023.
• Slight Decline in Cases and Deaths: Estimated cases and deaths dropped slightly in 2023, with deaths declining from 3.31 lakh in 2022 to 3.2 lakh in 2023.

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Progress and Shortfalls in Elimination Targets

• Targets Not Met: India’s progress falls short of WHO’s End TB goals, achieving only an 18% reduction in cases and 24% in deaths from 2015 to 2023, against the 50% and 75% targets, respectively.
• 2025 Elimination Goal: India aims to eliminate TB by 2025, ahead of the global goal, but significant challenges remain to meet this target.

Diagnosis and Treatment Coverage for TB

• Improved Reporting: India saw an increase in reported cases, reaching 25.1 lakh in 2023, indicating improvements in diagnosis.
• Treatment Rates: India put 85% of diagnosed patients on treatment, ranking high among the 30 countries with the highest TB burden.

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Funding Gaps in TB Management

• Global Funding Shortfall: The global funding for TB was only $5.7 billion of the $22 billion target in 2023.
• India’s Reduced Funding: TB funding in India decreased from $432.6 million in 2019 to $302.8 million in 2023, with domestic funding dropping from $345.9 million to $253 million.
• High Economic Impact: Nearly 20% of India’s population faced catastrophic health costs (expenses exceeding 20% of household income) due to TB.
• Comparative Costs: India’s rate is notably high compared to neighboring countries such as Thailand (1%) and Pakistan (5%). Globally, 49% of TB-affected households faced catastrophic costs, far above the WHO target of zero.

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The United States is all set to elect the country’s next President in its 2024 general election scheduled for November 5, 2024.

• Congress will officially counts the electoral votes in early January, with the President-elect taking office on January 20, 2025, for a four-year term.

More About US Presidential Elections

• Unique System: The U.S. is the only democracy where a candidate can lose the presidency despite winning the popular vote, which has happened multiple times, including recent elections in 2000 and 2016.
• Function Of Electoral College: It is an intermediary system where voters elect representatives, or “electors,” who then formally vote for the President and Vice President. This process has historically created situations where the popular vote winner did not secure the presidency.

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About Electoral College System

• Definition: An electoral college is a body responsible for electing a candidate to a specific office.
• Political Context: It is often used to refer to a constitutional body that appoints key positions like the head of state or government in a democratic setup.
• Usage: Sometimes, it also appoints members of the upper parliamentary chamber.
• Members: The members, known as electors, are typically chosen either by direct popular vote (indirect election) or through subregional entities or social organizations.
• Historical Debate: The Founding Fathers debated between congressional or popular election models. 
  • The Electoral College emerged as a compromise to balance state representation and prevent large states from dominating the outcome.
• Federalist Justification: Alexander Hamilton and others argued that the Electoral College would prevent unsuitable candidates from assuming office while maintaining a role for the popular will.

Structure of the Electoral College of U.S

• Total Electors: There are 538 electors, with a majority of 270 votes required to win the presidency.
• State Representation: Each state’s electors equal its number of congressional members — representatives plus two senators.
  • California has the largest share (54 electors), while smaller states and Washington, D.C., have the minimum of three electors.

Elector Selection Process

• Party Affiliation: Political parties nominate electors, typically individuals with strong party ties or long-standing affiliations. The party whose candidate wins the popular vote in a state appoints its electors.
• Eligibility: Federal officeholders, such as members of Congress, cannot serve as electors. The 14th Amendment also bars individuals who have engaged in insurrection or aided the nation’s enemies from being electors.

Voting Process and “Winner-Takes-All” System

• Election Day Voting: On Election Day, voters choose the electors representing their preferred candidate. Most states use a winner-takes-all approach, where the state’s electoral votes go entirely to the popular vote winner.
• Exceptions: Maine and Nebraska allocate electors proportionally, with two votes going to the state winner and one vote per congressional district winner.
• Casting Votes: Electors meet in December to vote, usually honoring the popular vote result. “Faithless electors” occasionally vote differently, but most states have laws or penalties to enforce alignment with the popular vote.
  • In 2016, some electors voted against their pledged candidate, though they were often replaced or penalized.

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Criticisms of the Electoral College System

• Unequal Vote Value: Larger states see diminished vote value per capita compared to smaller states (e.g. California vs. Wyoming).
• Swing State Influence: The winner-takes-all approach elevates swing states’ importance while undervaluing votes from less competitive states.
• Modern Relevance: Critics argue that the Electoral College does not align with principles of direct democracy, advocating instead for direct elections.

Indian and US electoral systems

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The recent flash floods in Spain were primarily caused by a weather phenomenon known as DANA (Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos) or the “cold drop.” 

What is DANA?

• Definition: DANA, also known as “cold drop” in Spanish, stands for “isolated depression at high altitudes.”
• It is a weather phenomenon that occurs when a pocket of cold air descends over the warmer waters of the Mediterranean Sea. This collision of cold and warm air creates atmospheric instability, causing rapid formation of dense cumulonimbus clouds.
• Polar Jet Stream Influence: The polar jet stream, a fast-moving wind at the boundary between polar and tropical air masses, can break off pockets of cold air that later collide with warm Mediterranean air, triggering DANA.
• Seasonal Occurrence: Common in autumn and spring, particularly in the western Mediterranean regions.
• Increasing Intensity: Due to global warming, these events have become more frequent and intense, and they now affect inland areas not typically hit by such rainfall, like Madrid.

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Impact of DANA

• Intense Rainfall: DANA causes very heavy rainfall in a short period. For instance, regions in Spain have experienced over a month’s worth of rain in a single day, leading to flash floods.
• Flooding and Infrastructure Damage: Due to the massive deluge, DANA leads to widespread flooding, submerging towns, damaging roads, and straining infrastructure. Flash floods are a significant threat in affected areas, especially along the Mediterranean coast.
• Rising Frequency and Intensity: With increasing sea temperatures due to climate change, DANA events have become more frequent, intense, and geographically widespread, sometimes reaching inland areas unaccustomed to heavy rains, such as Madrid.
• Human and Economic Costs: These events often lead to loss of life, displacement of people, and economic damage due to the need for repairs and recovery efforts in affected areas.

Impact of Climate Change on DANA

• Warmer Air Holds More Moisture: With global warming, warmer air can retain more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall events.
• Mediterranean Sea Temperatures: Sea surface temperatures have risen, with the Mediterranean recording its highest-ever temperature in August, adding to the severity of DANA.

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India, represented by the Directorate of Enforcement (ED), has been inducted into ARIN-AP’s Steering Committee, granting it a role in decision-making and administrative responsibilities within the organization.

India’s Role in ARIN-AP

• Future Presidency and Hosting: India will assume the ARIN-AP presidency and host the Annual General Meeting in 2026, providing a platform to showcase its leadership in asset recovery.
• Focus on Economic Offenders: India’s active participation aligns with its G-20 priorities, especially the Nine Point Agenda on tackling fugitive economic offenders and enhancing asset recovery mechanisms.

About ARIN-AP

• Purpose: ARIN-AP is dedicated to tracking, freezing, and confiscating assets related to criminal activities across the Asia-Pacific region. 
  • It functions as part of the larger CARIN (Camden Asset Recovery Interagency Network), which includes over 100 jurisdictions globally.
• ARIN-AP’s core objectives include prioritising the recovery of assets derived from all types of crime, in alignment with international commitments
• It aims to establish itself as a centre of expertise in asset recovery, fostering best practices and knowledge sharing.
• ARIN-AP also facilitates training, research, and partnerships with organisations such as the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and promotes collaboration with the private sector to achieve its objectives effectively.
• Membership: ARIN-AP has 28 member jurisdictions and 9 observers, all working collaboratively through informal information-sharing channels.

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Network Functionality and Benefits

• Informal Intelligence Sharing: Member agencies within ARIN-AP and CARIN can informally share intelligence on individuals, assets, and companies, which facilitates rapid cross-border asset tracing and recovery.
• Support for Law Enforcement: The network benefits law enforcement agencies in tracing both movable and immovable assets linked to criminal activities, expediting the process of asset recovery.

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The recent flagging-off of the Sagarmala Parikrama by Defence Minister marks a significant milestone in India’s naval innovation, with a 1,500-km autonomous voyage from Mumbai to Tuticorin.

More on the Sagarmala Parikrama

• Autonomous Vessel Voyage: The voyage features a cutting-edge autonomous surface vessel, built by Sagar Defence Engineering, aimed at demonstrating India’s capabilities in maritime autonomous technology.

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• Strategic Implications: The journey signifies a major technological advancement as the Indian Navy plans to incorporate more autonomous surface and underwater vesselsenhancing maritime security and operational reach.
• It was unveiled at Swavlamban 2024.

Swavlamban 2024 and Related Initiatives

• Swavlamban Event: This annual event of the Naval Innovation and Indigenisation Organisation (NIIO) promotes self-reliance in defense by showcasing indigenous technology.
• ADITI 3.0 and DISC 13: Defense Minister also unveiled these initiatives, which are part of efforts to push innovation in indigenous defense technology.
  • ADITI 3.0 includes a challenge to develop a high-power microwave weapon system.
  • DISC 13 features challenges across domains like AI, military communication, and autonomous systems, with participation from the Army, Navy, and Air Force.
• Aatmanirbhar Bharat Goals: Navy Chief Admiral Dinesh K. Tripathi emphasized the Navy’s goal to achieve complete self-reliance by 2047.
• Defense Innovation Success: The Navy has reportedly translated over 2,000 proposals into solutions, resulting in 171 contracts worth ₹700 crore and initiatives worth over ₹2,000 crore.

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SPRINT and iDEX Collaboration

• SPRINT: Over 2,000 proposals were received under this scheme were converted into 155 actionable challenges under the Scheme .
• iDEX Partnerships: Collaborations with 213 MSMEs and start-ups have led to projects worth ₹784 crore, aiming to establish India as a leader in innovative defense solutions.

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