Critical Target of 1.5 Degree Celsius

May 29, 2023

Context:

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released two reports titled “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023-2027” and “State of Global Climate 2022.”

Findings of the Reports:

Annual Mean Global Surface Temperature: The annual mean global surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be 1.1 -1.8 degree Celsius higher than the baseline temperature of 1850-1900 or pre-industrial levels.
- In 2022, it was 1.15 degrees above the baseline, and by 2027, the average will exceed 1.5 degrees, a critical point beyond which there may be no return.

What is the 1.5 degree Celsius target?

The 1.5 degree Celsius target is the global climate target that aims to limit warming to said level by 2100, in order to prevent the planet from slipping into further climate crises.

Cancun COP16 (2010)	Countries agreed to limit the global average warming to below 2 degree Celsius.
Paris Agreement (2015)	Parties pledged to limit the average temperature rise to below 2 degree, while actively aiming for 1.5 degree above pre-industrial levels.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2018	This was endorsed as a global target by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2018 and since then has been pursued in all climate dialogues.

Why is the 1.5 degree target critical?

IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Activities: In a special report of IPCC released in 2018, it was estimated that anthropogenic activities would have already caused 1 degree of warming, likely to reach 1.5 degree between 2030 and 2052 at the current rate.
Impacts of 2-Degree Warming: Frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, heavy precipitation, an additional 10 centimetre rise in sea level, destruction of ecosystems and mostly irreversible changes can be witnessed at the 2 degree level.
Need for Climate Action and Limiting Warming: The regional differences in warming across the planet and the vulnerability factors spell more urgency for climate action which must limit the average planetary warming to 1.5 degree.

Why are we missing the target?

Responsibility of Developed Countries: Historically, developed countries are responsible for a major chunk of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.
- Therefore, they are expected to assume more responsibility and implement climate action.
Climate Performance Index: The index over the years has shown that countries like Australia, the US, Japan, Russia and Canada have made little progress in meeting their pledges.
- Polluters like China, Iran and Saudi Arabia rank low in climate performance.
- There is little to no consideration for building back in a sustainable manner.
Ukraine conflict and Energy Crisis: The Ukraine conflict has further added to woes and sparked an energy crisis threatening climate goals.

Link between extreme weather events and the global rise in temperature

Precipitation Anomalies and Marine Heat Waves:
- WMO reports predict precipitation anomalies and increased marine heat waves.
- Comparatively fewer marine cold spells anticipated.

El Niño and Rising Temperatures:
- El Niño expected to strengthen, leading to higher temperatures.
- 98% likelihood of experiencing temperatures surpassing those of 2016 in the 2023-27 period.

Shrinking Cryosphere and Melting Greenland Ice Sheet
- Cryosphere, including glaciers in High-mountain Asia, Western North America, and South America, experiencing mass loss.
- Arctic Ocean warming accelerating melting of Greenland ice sheet, contributing to rising sea levels.

Impacts on Food Security and Agriculture:
- Climate change exacerbating food insecurity, displacement, and deaths.
- Negative effects on crop yields and increased risks of agricultural pests and diseases.

Additional Information:

About World Meteorological Organization (WMO):

It is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 193 Member States and Territories.
It originated from the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), the roots of which were planted at the 1873 Vienna International Meteorological Congress.
Established by the ratification of the WMO Convention on 23 March 1950, WMO became the specialised agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences in 1951.
The Secretariat, headquartered in Geneva, is headed by the Secretary-General.
Its supreme body is the World Meteorological Congress.