Emissions Gap Report 2023: Urgent Action Needed as Global Warming Threatens 1.5°C Limit

GS Paper III Environment and Ecology

Context:

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the14th Emissions Gap Report 2023.

About United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP):

It is the leading global authority on the environment.
UNEP works closely with its 193 Member States (including India)and representatives from civil society, businesses, and other major groups and stakeholders to address environmental challenges through the UN Environment Assembly, the world’s highest-level decision-making body on the environment.
UNEP uses its expertise to strengthen environmental standards and practices while helping implement environmental obligations at the country, regional and global levels.
The Ministry of Environment, Forests & Climate Change is the nodal Ministry dealing with India’s engagement with UNEP.
Headquarters: Nairobi, Kenya

Chances of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C : There is only a 14 percent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C over pre-industrial levels considering the most optimistic climate action projects.
Breach of 2°C target: Even if the existing nationally determined contributions (NDC), both conditional and unconditional, are delivered by 2030, the world will warm by 2.5°C, breaching the 2°C target set by the Paris Agreement.
Implementation gap: Warming under the current policy scenarios will reach 3°C, given the implementation gap still stands at five gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent.
- Implementation gap is the difference between the commitments made by countries in their NDCs and the actual measures and policies implemented to achieve those commitments.
Rise in alarming climate trends: There is a spike in the number of climate records being shattered. Ex- 86 days have experienced warming higher than 1.5°C this year.
- September 2023 was the hottest September ever recorded, and in 2022, global emissions peaked at 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Inequalities in contributions to climate change: A minority of nations, led by the United States, the European Union and China, account for a disproportionate share of historical emissions and warming.
- The G20 collectively are responsible for three-quarters of the current burden of warming.
Role of Affluence: Wealth plays a critical role, with affluent households responsible for nearly half of worldwide consumption-based emissions.
- At the household level, the global top 10 percent income bracket generates a staggering 45-49 per cent of total emissions, while the bottom 50 percent contributes a mere 7-13 per cent.

Production gap report 2023 by United Nations Environment Programme:

As per the report, countries with their current policies, plan to produce almost double the amount of fossil fuels than what would be consistent with keeping temperatures below 1.5°C.
The report revealed a concerning gap in keeping up with the required action to restrict global warming.
Current unconditional NDCs project a 14 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent gap for a 2°C target and a 22 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent gap for the 1.5°C goal.
Unconditional NDC are those NDCs which are not contingent upon the provision of external support.

Countries adopting Net Zero pledges: By September 2023, 97 parties from 101 countries, representing 82 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, had adopted Net Zero pledges.
- Net zero refers to the balance between the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) that’s produced and the amount that’s removed from the atmosphere. It can be achieved through a combination of emission reduction and emission removal.
Diversity and scope of these commitments: While 37 per cent of global emissions are covered by Net Zero targets for 2050 or earlier, 44 per cent have commitments beyond 2050.
- Concerns arise regarding the implementation of Net Zero pledges.

Policy developments within G20 economies:

Inflation Reduction Act by the US: Analysis shows that the act will help the US reach two-thirds of its 2030 NDC goals.
Fit for 55 and REPowerEU by the European Union: These initiatives could surpass their 2030 targets, but challenges arise from increased investments in fossil gas infrastructure and a temporary shift from gas to coal.

Insufficient progress indicators: Despite all G20 members setting Net Zero targets, progress indicators such as legal status, implementation plans, and emission reduction pace remain deeply insufficient signaling a low confidence in the Net Zero targets.
Need for affordable clean energy financing: As many as 2.4 billion people lack clean cooking sources and 775 million are without electricity.
- There is an urgent need for affordable finance in low- and lower-middle-income countries for clean energy investments.
- These nations face challenges like high debt, low clean energy investments, and vulnerability to volatile fossil fuel markets.

Difference between CDR and Carbon Capture and Storage:

CDR is the direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and its durable storage in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs or in products.
While carbon capture and storage and carbon capture and utilization share components with some CDR methods, their application on CO2 emissions from fossil fuels can never result in CO2 removal from the atmosphere.

Exploring carbon dioxide removal strategies: The carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary, given that Net Zero emissions will be impossible without residual emissions being balanced out through removals.
- Delaying significant global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will make us more dependent on future efforts to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

News Source: DTE