The Global Drought Outlook–2025, presented by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), underscores a rising trend in the frequency and severity of droughts globally. 

• It highlights that countries like India face significantly higher exposure, lower adaptive capacity, and deeper livelihood dependencies on climate-sensitive sectors compared to OECD nations.

Key Findings

• Drought Severity: 
  • 40% of the global land area is witnessing increased frequency and intensity of droughts in recent decades.
    • Notable examples include the 20-year-long drought in Mexico and the devastating 2022 droughts across Europe and the United States.
  • The global land area affected by drought has doubled between 1900 and 2020.
• Drivers: 
  • Climate Change: Rising temperatures amplify evaporation, alter precipitation patterns, and reduce snowpack and glacier reserves.
    • Under a +4°C warming scenario, drought frequency and intensity may increase up to sevenfold compared to a no-climate-change baseline.
  • Human Activities: Deforestation, urban sprawl, and unsustainable agricultural practices degrade ecosystems and water sources, exacerbating drought risk.
  • These pressures compound over time, intensifying threats to freshwater availability.

Impacts of Droughts

• Ecological Impacts: 
  • Decreased water availability accelerates soil degradation and impacts forests and wetlands, altering plant biomass and distribution.
  • Globally, 62% of monitored aquifers are in decline, and many rivers report significant streamflow reductions.
• Socio-economic implications of drought: 
  • Global drought-related economic losses are increasing at 3–7.5% annually.
  • Agriculture: In dry years, crop yields can fall by up to 22%; doubling drought duration could reduce soy and corn yields by up to 10%.
  • Energy and Trade: Severe droughts can reduce fluvial trade volumes by up to 40% and hydroelectric generation by over 25%.
    • Example: Drought-related disruption in the Panama Canal.
  • Human Impact: Despite comprising only 6% of natural disasters, droughts cause 34% of all disaster-related deaths and intensify displacement, poverty, and social inequality.
  • Geopolitical Risk: Water scarcity-induced stress can trigger political instability and social unrest.

India-Specific Drought Findings

• Flash Drought Hotspot: India is increasingly prone to flash droughts, especially during the summer monsoon (June–September).
  • Agricultural exposure to flash droughts is projected to rise by 20–30% by 2100.
  • Flash droughts are expected to intensify in frequency and speed, with shorter warning periods.

• Soil Moisture Decline: Over 60% of Indian soils showed drying between 1980–2023.
  • By 2050, central, northern, and peninsular India may face severe soil moisture deficits.
• Groundwater Stress: India is one of the highest groundwater extractors, particularly for irrigation in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Karnataka.
• Agricultural Vulnerability: Rainfed agriculture, covering over 50% of sown area, is highly vulnerable to flash droughts.
  • Water-intensive crops like paddy and sugarcane in Maharashtra, Punjab, and Andhra Pradesh are at rising risk.
  • Doubling of drought duration could reduce yields of rice, soybean, and pulses by up to 10%.
• Urban Water Stress: Cities like Delhi, Chennai, and Bengaluru face acute water stress from groundwater exhaustion, urban sprawl, and reduced recharge zones.
  • Soil sealing and construction have diminished natural recharge capacity.
• Water Governance Gaps: Current governance systems do not adequately incorporate hydroclimatic projections into irrigation or crop planning.
  • Despite schemes like PMKSY and Jal Shakti Abhiyan, many states lack integrated climate-resilient drought management strategies.
  • Water abstraction charges remain negligible, failing to reflect the true economic cost of scarcity.
  • Drought losses are often underreported due to fragmented assessment frameworks.

Key Recommendations

• Proactive Resilience Building
  • Every dollar spent on drought prevention yields $2–3 in benefits, with resilience investments potentially offering returns up to tenfold.
• Effective Water Policy
  • Adopt integrated water resource management for efficient usage, equitable distribution, and conservation.
  • Strengthen supply resilience and balance between water extraction and natural replenishment.
• Ecosystem-Based Approaches
  • Integrate climate risk into long-term planning.
  • Protect and restore ecosystems critical for water regulation and availability.
• Drought-Resilient Agriculture
  • Promote sustainable land use, ecosystem restoration, and adaptive farming practices.
  • Encourage cultivation of drought-tolerant crops to maintain yields and reduce water use.
• Risk Reduction and Strategic Planning
  • Strengthen drought risk assessment, improve early warning systems, and invest in resilience-focused infrastructure and policies.
  • In India, returns on resilience investments in agriculture and water sectors can be 5–10 times the cost.
• Collaborative Action
  • Foster inter-sectoral and inter-state collaboration to address both immediate drought challenges and long-term resource sustainability.
  • Enhance water efficiency, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem preservation through coordinated governance and knowledge sharing.

Conclusion

Strategic and forward-looking drought prevention can pave the way for sustainable development. By ensuring water and food security, enhancing climate resilience, and protecting ecosystems, such efforts are critical to safeguarding the well-being of future generations.

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