India Myanmar Relations: Escalation of Armed Conflict in Myanmar

Context:

• This article is based on the news “India must bring in changes in its policy towards Myanmar” Which was published in the Live Mint.  India on 16 November called for a cessation of fighting between Myanmar’s military and anti-junta groups near the India Myanmar border that has triggered an influx of Myanmar refugees to Mizoram.

Armed Conflict in Myanmar

• Current Conflict: Since last month, the Myanmar military (Junta) has faced a major coordinated offensive from an alliance of three ethnic armed forces. This led to the rebels capturing several towns and security outposts.

• Result of the Conflict: Concurrent assaults by other militias in the Chin and Sagaing regions, adjoining India, have precipitated the flight of around 5,000 people, including some military personnel, into India’s Mizoram..
• The  offensive was seen as a significant challenge for the Junta. since conflict broke out in Myanmar after the military seized power from the elected government of  Aung San Suu Kyi in February  2021.
• The various PDF (the People’s Defense Force), a pro-democracy armed group established after the 2021 army coup, operates around the country and has joined forces with well-organized, battle-hardened ethnic armed groups including those in the three Brotherhood Alliance.

History of Political Unrest in Myanmar

• Parliamentary Democracy Phase
  • Burma, now Myanmar, gained independence from British colonial rule in 1948.
  • The country established a democracy based on the parliamentary system.
• First Phase of Military Rule
  • In 1962, General Ne Win staged a coup d’état, establishing a military dictatorship.
  • The Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) became the country’s sole political party.
• Second Phase of Political Conflict
  • Economic decline and corruption led to widespread unrest in the 1980s.
  • In 1988, General Saw Maung seized control of the government, overthrowing the BSPP.
  • The military continued to rule under the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).
• Democratic Transition Phase
  • In 2010, the SPDC held elections, paving the way for a quasi-civilian government.
  • Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won the 2015 elections.
• 2021 Military Coup and Subsequent Civil War
  • The NLD’s landslide victory in the 2020 elections sparked concern among the military.
  • The Tatmadaw (military) alleged electoral fraud and staged a coup in February 2021.
  • The coup led to widespread protests, mass arrests, and the formation of resistance groups.
• Anti-Junta Armed Struggle
  • The National Unity Government (NUG) was formed as a parallel government to the junta.
  • The NUG aims to unite opposition groups and establish a post-junta Myanmar.
  • In September 2021, the NUG declared war on the junta and formed the People’s Defence Force.

Why has Myanmar endured so many ethnic conflicts?

• Ethnic Diversity and Inequality
  • Myanmar is a land of rich ethnic diversity, with over 100 distinct ethnic groups identified within its borders. 

• • However, the majority of Bamar people have historically held a privileged position in society, controlling the government and military. 
  • This has left many ethnic minority groups feeling marginalized and discriminated against.
• A Legacy of Colonialism and Division
  • Myanmar’s ethnic conflicts have deep roots in the country’s colonial past. British colonial rule exacerbated divisions between ethnic groups, favoring the Bamar while suppressing minority cultures and languages. This legacy of inequality has persisted even after independence.
• Armed Struggles and Repression
  • The grievances of ethnic minority groups have often erupted into armed conflict. Since independence, Myanmar has witnessed numerous rebellions and insurgencies, as various ethnic groups (such as the Karen National Liberation Army in Kayin State; the Kachin Independence Army in Kachin State; and the Shan State Army in Shan State; among other groups) have sought to assert their autonomy or achieve self-determination.
• The Rohingya Crisis: A Stark Example of Ethnic Persecution
  • In 2017, the Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown against the Rohingya, resulting in widespread killings, rape, and displacement. The United Nations has described the atrocities committed against the Rohingya as a genocide.
• The 2021 Coup and Its Impact on Ethnic Conflicts
  • The 2021 military coup in Myanmar further exacerbated ethnic tensions. The coup has led to increased violence against ethnic minority groups, as the military seeks to suppress dissent and consolidate its power.

Importance of India Myanmar Relations: India and Myanmar have a rich cultural and religious exchange history dating back centuries.

• Cultural Linkages: Given India’s Buddhist heritage, India and Myanmar share close cultural ties and a sense of deep kinship. Building on this shared heritage, India is undertaking some key initiatives in restoring the Ananda Temple in Bagan and repairing and conserving many damaged pagodas.
• Geographical Significance: India shares a long land border of over 1643 km with Myanmar and a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. 
  • It is the only ASEAN country adjoining India and, therefore, is a gateway to South East Asia. India seeks to enhance its cooperation with Myanmar in line with our ‘Act East’ and ‘Neighborhood First’ Policies. 
• Commercial Cooperation: India is the fifth-largest trading partner of Myanmar. The bilateral trade stood at US$ 1.03 billion in 2021-22. The growth is, however, not commensurate with the potential. India-Myanmar bilateral trade is conducted under the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) and India’s DutyFree Tariff Preference (DFTP) scheme. 
• Investment: India stands at 11th position with an approved investment of US$ 773.038 million by 34 Indian enterprises as of 31 January 2022. 
  • 13 Indian Public SectorUndertakings have a presence in Myanmar in different sectors, with a concentration in oil and gas.
• Energy Cooperation: Myanmar is potentially an important partner in the energy sector as future offshore gas finds can be piped to India. 
  • India currently has a Joint Working Group (JWG) on Oil and Gas, a Joint Steering Committee (JSC) & a Joint Working Group (JWG) on Power Cooperation and a Joint Working Group (JWG) on Renewable Energy.
• Infrastructure and Connectivity: India has invested heavily in infrastructure projects in Myanmar, such as the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project which aims to connect India’s northeastern states with Southeast Asia.

• • Trilateral Highway Project, which is an East-West corridor connecting our Northeast with Myanmar and Thailand.

• • In September 2022, India and Myanmar signed a Project Agreement for constructing a Modern Integrated Checkpost at Tamu in Myanmar.
• Development Cooperation: India’s development assistance portfolio in Myanmar is now over US $1.75 billion. The bulk of this assistance is grant-funded. 
  • For Example: Assistance in setting up Myanmar Institute of Information Technology, Advanced Centre for Agricultural Research and Education, Myanmar-India Centre for Enhancement of IT Skills, Rakhine State Development Programme, etc
• Security Significance: Myanmar’s political stability is important for India’s regional security concerns. Instability in Myanmar could spill over into India’s northeastern states, posing challenges for border security and ethnic insurgencies. India has provided military assistance to Myanmar to help address security threats along the shared border.
• Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief: India has responded promptly and effectively in rendering assistance following natural calamities in Myanmar like Cyclone Mora (2017), Komen (2015), earthquake in Shan State (2010,  etc.
  • India supported Myanmar in its fight against COVID-19, in total, India supplied more than 20 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine to Myanmar, including both gift and commercial supplies. 

Major Concerns in India Myanmar Relation: India’s concerns in Myanmar are multifaceted and stem from the country’s internal situation and geopolitical context. 

• India’s Policy Paradox: Commitment to democracy vs. Security concerns.
  • New Delhi walks a fine diplomatic line regarding the Junta. India needs Myanmar’s cooperation on border and connectivity issues and wants to avoid Myanmar becoming fully reliant on China.
• China’s Inroads: China has been steadily increasing its influence in Myanmar, investing heavily in infrastructure projects and expanding its economic footprint. India is wary of this development, as it fears that China could use its position to gain strategic dominance in the region and undermine India’s own interests.
  • For example, India’s announcement of the Sairang-Hmawngbuchhuah railway project near the Myanmar border, under India’s Act East Policy, aims to counter China’s railway access in Myanmar through Yunnan and the ambitious China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
• Refugee Influx: The ongoing violence and instability in Myanmar have led to a surge in the number of refugees fleeing to India, particularly Mizoram.  
  • Over 54,100 Myanmar nationals have sought refuge in the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland, straining resources and posing security challenges for India.
  • According to Intelligence agencies Illegal Migration of Rohingya poses grave security concerns to India.
• Drug Menace: Myanmar’s Golden Triangle region is a notorious hub for drug trafficking, and the political instability in the country has raised concerns that the drug trade could flourish, posing a serious threat to India’s northeastern states.
  • The nexus between drug cartels and insurgent groups in the region further complicates the situation.
• Regional connectivity Projects: Conflict could affect regional connectivity projects. India aims to strengthen integration with its neighbours to the north and east through the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral and Technical Cooperation. 
  • MEA Jaishankar emphasizing the need to expedite “projects that have faced challenges in the recent past.”
• India’s Balancing Act: India faces a delicate balancing act in its approach to Myanmar. On the one hand, India wants to support the pro-democracy movement and promote human rights in Myanmar. 
  • On the other hand, India also wants to maintain a good relationship with the military junta, as it relies on the junta to control insurgent groups operating along the India Myanmar border.

Also Read: India’s Northeast Border Tension

Way forward

• Support for democracy and human rights: India should continue to advocate for the restoration of democracy and respect for human rights in Myanmar. This includes calling for the release of political prisoners and an end to the military junta’s crackdown on dissent.
  • The United Nations Special Rapporteur has reported an increase in India’s arms supply to the military since the coup. Arming the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Military) undermines India’s position on restoring democracy.
• Engagement with all stakeholders: India should use its influence to open channels of dialogue with and between the junta and the opposition, including armed ethnic groups. The shifting of Aung San Suu Kyi to house arrest opens up new possibilities and could prove valuable to all parties involved in any such dialogue.
  • This engagement should promote dialogue and compromise and find a peaceful solution to the country’s crisis.
• Regional Cooperation: New Delhi should collaborate closely with the ASEAN nations to assess whether their proposed peace plan requires reformulation or revisions. 
  • Working in coordination with regional partners can enhance the effectiveness of initiatives to bring stability and peace to Myanmar. 
  • India’s active involvement in regional forums will strengthen collective efforts to address the crisis and find viable solutions.
• Economic Engagement: India should continue to engage with Myanmar economically, but it should do so in a way that promotes sustainable development and benefits the people of Myanmar. This includes investing in infrastructure projects and supporting the development of Myanmar’s private sector.
• Security Cooperation: Given the presence of insurgent groups along the India Myanmar border, robust counterterrorism cooperation is essential. 
  • India can collaborate closely with Myanmar in intelligence sharing and coordinated efforts to combat these groups. Still, it should do so in a way that does not legitimise the military Junta.                         
  • This includes working with Myanmar to address threats such as terrorism and drug trafficking.
• Solidarity with the People of Myanmar: India’s approach should prioritize humanitarian assistance and support for displaced people and showcase its commitment to regional stability.
  • Providing aid and service to those affected by the crisis will alleviate suffering and demonstrate India’s solidarity with the people of Myanmar according to Harsh V. Pant.

Conclusion:

With the ground situation in Myanmar evolving rapidly, India’s efforts hold immense significance in fostering regional peace and cooperation and preserving Indian interests in a country that is critical for India’s own internal security in the northeast.