Context:

• This article is based on the news “Navy Chief Flags Fragile Situation in South China Sea” Which was published in the Indian Express.
• The “Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue 2023” (IPRD-2023), the three-day annual apex-level regional strategic dialogue of the Indian Navy recently commenced in New Delhi.

Rising Tensions in the South China Sea

• Concerns over stability: At the IPRD, the Indian Navy Chief reiterated that the fragile situation in the South China Sea along with violations of the code of conduct (CoC) poses a danger to order and discipline at sea.
  • Owing to the increased presence of multinational forces, and differing interpretations of international laws,  the region’s global commons’ can change to contested seas’. 
  • This contestation at sea can have adverse physical, social as well as economic consequences for security.

About the South China Sea

• Geographical extent: It encompasses a portion of the Pacific Ocean stretching roughly from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca in the southwest, to the Strait of Taiwan (between Taiwan and mainland China) in the northeast. 
• Features: There are two major clusters of land features in the Sea. 
  • Paracels:  These consist mainly of islands and reefs. 
    • Reefs are chains of rocks or coral at or near the surface of the water. 
  • Spratlys:  They have some islands but are mostly reefs and rocks that may not even appear above water at high tide.
• Topography: Most of these islands are not arable, do not support permanent crops, and have no meadows, pastures, or forests. 
  • However, the surrounding water areas are abundant in oil, natural gas, minerals, and seafood.

What is the strategic importance of the South China Sea?

• Global shipping lane: It is a crucial waterway for global trade, with more than $3 trillion in trade passing through its waters annually.
  • More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait, and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the South China Sea  amounting to around $5 trillion.
• Fishing ground: It is home to rich fishing grounds that provide for the livelihoods of millions of people across the region. 
  • More than half of the world’s fishing vessels operate in this area.
• Energy reserves: It has proved oil and gas reserves, so the sovereignty of the disputed islands involves legal rights to exploit its resources. 
  • From a strategic perspective, whoever has dominance over it, dominates the future of East Asia.
• Energy routes: It covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. 
  • Therefore, it has geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the energy and economic security of China and East Asian countries as well as the USA.
  • $1.2 trillion of U.S. trade moves through the waters. 

Also Read: South China Sea Dispute

What is the strategic importance of the South China Sea for India?

• Economic Significance:
  • Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs): Nearly 55% of India’s trade transits through the South China Sea, making it a crucial lifeline for the country’s economy. 
  • Energy Resources: India seeks to explore and potentially exploit vast reserves of oil and natural gas to meet its growing energy demands.
  • Maritime Connectivity: The South China Sea is a key link in India’s Act East Policy, which aims to strengthen economic and strategic ties with Southeast Asia. 
    • Ensuring a stable and secure maritime environment is essential for India’s engagement in the region.
• Security Significance:
  • Freedom of Navigation: India is a staunch supporter of freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea, a principle that is vital for its security interests. 
    • China’s militarization of the region and its expansive maritime claims pose a challenge to this principle.
  • Countering China’s Expansionism: China’s growing military presence and its assertiveness in the South China Sea is a major concern for India. 
    • India seeks to balance China’s influence by strengthening its own maritime capabilities and deepening its ties with regional partners.
  • Protecting Indian Ocean Interests: The South China Sea is a critical maritime chokepoint that connects the Indian Ocean to the Pacific. 
    • Maintaining a stable and rules-based order in the South China Sea is crucial for safeguarding India’s interests in the Indian Ocean region.
• Geopolitical Significance:
  • Emerging as a Regional Power: India’s proactive engagement in the South China Sea signals its growing stature as a regional power with a vested interest in shaping the Indo-Pacific order.
  • Strengthening Alliances: India has forged closer ties with the US, Japan, Australia, and ASEAN countries, forming a network of partners that share common concerns about China’s actions in the South China Sea.
  • Promoting a Rules-Based Order: India advocates for a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific, where international law and norms govern maritime interactions. \
  • This approach aligns with India’s interests in a stable and predictable regional environment.

Other Recent developments in the South China Sea region:

• 10-dash line: China recently published a new standard map for 2023, often referred to as the 10-dash line,’ which extends its territorial claims far beyond its recognized EEZ.
  • The map showed the entire State of Arunachal Pradesh, the Aksai Chin region, and the South China Sea as Chinese territory, drawing protests from India, Malaysia, and the Philippines. 
• Building artificial islands: China continues the world’s largest island-building campaign, in complete disregard of international law.
• Gray zone activities: A Chinese coast guard vessel (CGV) fired a water cannon at a Philippine supply boat, as part of its “gray-zone” tactics in the South China Sea. 
  • These gray zone activities are a form of low-intensity conflict that China has increasingly employed over the last year to assert its territorial claims in the South China Sea.
  • Vietnam and the Philippines are frequently the targets of such activities. 

Concerns with China’s expansion/Challenges in the South China Sea region:

• Fishing ban: It has been arbitrarily imposed by China since 1999 under the pretext of promoting sustainable fishing and improving marine ecology. The ban includes waters 12 degrees north of the equator and includes parts of Vietnam’s 200-mile EEZ and the Paracel Islands.
• Legal actions:   Article 22  of the Coast Guard Law promulgated in January 2021 in China enables the China Coast Guard (CCG) to use weapons against foreign organizations and individuals that infringe on China’s sovereign rights and jurisdiction at sea.
• Proxy warfare:  Actions conducted by Chinese maritime militia with support from the CCG aimed at swarming, ramming foreign vessels, and blocking their access to disputed areas. 
  • This was evident in the recent friction between China and the Philippines.
  • The CCG utilized a ‘military-grade’ laser against a Philippine Coast Guard vessel, disrupting a rotation and resupply mission near Second Thomas Shoal, and engaging in dangerous maneuvers to impede the mission.
• Raising questions on maritime diplomacy: The publication of China’s ’10-dash line’ map has raised questions about China’s adherence to international law and diplomacy. 
  • The dispute has implications for regional stability and broader U.S.-China relations, as the United States and its allies respond to China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea region. 
• Tracking militia vessels: China’s militia vessels usually turn off or manipulate their automatic identification system (AIS) or have a short-range transmitter so it is hard for them to be located. 
  • In a May incident in Vietnam’s EEZ, despite having their AIS activated and being detected by open-source tracking tools, their pattern of behaviors and activities was hard to decipher.
• Managing China-US military and paramilitary competition:  With China’s expansion in the region, US military involvement in the area has largely increased leading to the militarisation of the region.
  • The US has expanded the scale of military exercises with allies in Southeast Asia, increased the frequency and intensity of its ‘freedom of navigation operations’ (FONOPs), deployed larger amounts of advanced weapons, and strengthened military ties with regional states.
  • It has also dispatched CGV to conduct operations in the South China Sea region. 

Way Forward:

• Diplomatic Engagement and Dialogue: ASEAN is the key for India to secure its geopolitical interests in Southeast Asia. 
  • ASEAN Centrality: India should consistently uphold ASEAN’s centrality in the South China Sea and support its efforts to maintain a rules-based order in the region.
• Code of conduct:  India should actively participate in negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea that is legally binding, comprehensive, and effective. It will help create a rules-based order in the region. 
• Maritime Cooperation: The Southeast Asian nations with South China Sea claims vulnerable to China’s coercive actions should develop their minimal deterrence capabilities. It is critical for preserving peace in the region. 
  • Capacity Building: India should assist ASEAN countries in enhancing their maritime security capabilities through training, joint exercises, and equipment provision.
  • Defense Cooperation: India should strengthen defense cooperation with regional partners, such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, to deter aggression and maintain a stable maritime environment.
• Defence Cooperation:
  • India can increase its bilateral defence ties by offering indigenously designed, manufactured, and modified equipment. 
  • This will help India to cater to the needs of its neighbour by replacing China and its supply of defence equipment. 
  • Indigenously manufactured/modified weapons will give India a chance to train the officials of the country at the receiving end about its usage and benefits. 
• Economic cooperation:
  • Free Trade Agreements: India should explore the possibility of negotiating free trade agreements with ASEAN countries to deepen economic ties and promote mutual prosperity. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework would be key in this regard.
  • Investment Opportunities: India should encourage Indian businesses to invest in infrastructure and development projects in countries bordering the South China Sea, creating economic opportunities and strengthening partnerships.
• Humanitarian aid: India’s continued presence in the South China Sea for providing humanitarian aid and relief packages will help in building mutual trust and friendship.
• Role of science and technology:  It has the potential to transform the definition of bilateral relations.
  • Sharing the technology behind a sustainable practice or a data collection methodology or even the modified version of the end product will help both parties to discover mutually beneficial products.

Conclusion:

India’s approach to the South China Sea has been characterized by a balance between upholding its interests and avoiding direct confrontation with China. India has consistently emphasized the need for freedom of navigation and overflight, a peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law, and the importance of a rules-based order.

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