A ‘middle kingdom’ dawns on India’s west

Context:

With the emergence of Saudi Arabia as the main arbiter of the Arab world’s agenda, India needs to realign its strategy.

The 32nd Arab League Summit:

Held in Jeddah & was unique.
- After 12 years, all 22 Arab states got together again, with 17 of them represented at the head of state or government level.
The summit readmitted Syria and heard the Ukrainian President, a special invitee.
It called for “stopping foreign interference in the domestic affairs of Arab countries and categorically rejecting all support for the formation of armed groups and militias”.
There was no mention of any non-Arab issue, including Ukraine and the oil market.

The Saudi angle:

Hint at the emergence of Saudi Arabia as the main arbiter of the Arab world’s agenda for the foreseeable future.
Relations with Iran were normalised, aiming to end nearly 45 years of hostility and geo-religious rivalry.
This reduced the friction among their respective proxies in conflict such as Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Ties with the United States have been stabilised.
Crown Prince has adroitly chalked out a middle path to take the Arab world’s leadership, currently in a vacuum.
Egypt is in a precarious economic state. Syria and Iraq are still battling their internal demons and Iranian interference.

Riyadh’s advantage:

In this ongoing quest for Arab supremacy, Saudi Arabia has the advantage of its economic heft.
Already the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi oil income grew by 51%, giving it a sway over both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+, much to the West’s chagrin.
With the global oil market facing high volatility, only Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, has adequate spare capacity.
As the global economic turmoil raises the costs of post-crisis regional reconstruction, Riyadh is emerging as the first go-to destination.

India’s stakes:

India has well-known high stakes in the Arab world, particularly in the neighbouring West Asian region.
India needs to acknowledge the importance of this incipient geo-political shift, watch the developments very carefully, realign our strategy accordingly and vigorously pursue our national interests.
Although India enjoy cordial and substantive ties with Saudi Arabia, these are still below the potential and need periodic upgradation.

Time for upgradation in Bilateral Initiatives:

The Crown Prince should be re-invited for the India visit postponed last year, his likely presence at the forthcoming G-20 Summit in New Delhi can be leveraged bilaterally for this purpose.
Synergise the bilateral Strategic Partnership Council at various levels, leverage the potential for energy complementarity, work together more effectively to secure the region, enter a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, suggest India-Saudi partnership for building socio-economic infrastructure, both bilaterally and regionally, and raise participation in various projects under the Kingdom’s ambitious “Vision 2030”.