One of the more fascinating theories in the Indian media on the fall of Sheikh Hasina suggests that Muhammad Yunus, an 84-year old economist branded as a “CIA agent”, has led the overthrow of the mighty Awami League in Dhaka and outwitted its biggest external supporter and the regional power, India.

Bangladesh and the Foreign Hand Bogey

• Conspiracy theories have long enjoyed great currency in the Subcontinent.
• They don’t need proof and can’t be disproved.
• Rulers in South Asia have resorted to the “foreign hand” theory whenever they faced trouble at home.
• Conspiracy theories were the staple of Indian politics in the second half of the 20th century. 
• When she faced resistance against her authoritarianism, Indira Gandhi reflexively blamed the foreign hand, mostly the CIA.

Enroll now for UPSC Online Course

• As she imposed Emergency in 1975, Indira Gandhi and her left supporters blamed the “fascists” at home and the “imperialists” abroad for trying to overthrow her “progressive” government.
• One had thought that a “rising India” is now self- confident and secure in its own skin; and that it had overcome the impulse to blame the “foreign hand” for any unwelcome or unanticipated development.
• But the shock of “losing an ally” in Dhaka seems to have triggered a Delhi derangement.
• Conspiracy theories pander to political prejudices and discourage common sense.
• They avoid reckoning with the causes of a political catastrophe staring in your face.
• You don’t have to be a geopolitical genius to recognise that Sheikh Hasina was increasingly unpopular.
• She emaciated her party and turned it into a personal fief.
• Repeatedly rigged elections, a hardening monopoly over power, a shrinking bubble around the great leader, and growing authoritarianism combined with post-Covid economic challenges were building up anti- regime steam in Bangladesh for a while.
• The student movement against quotas provided the final trigger for the political blowout.
• We can certainly empathise with Sheikh Hasina for clinging to the conspiracy theory.
• For she might be in the very early stages of grief – denial – at the loss of power.
• It will be a while before she comes to terms with the sources of the tragic end to her extraordinary political career that has truly transformed Bangladesh.
• Hasina appears convinced that the US overthrew her because she refused to give America a military base. She is not the only South Asian leader who is blaming the US for losing power.
• To be sure, the US military is looking for bases and facilities as it responds to the Chinese military challenge in Asia.
• But to suggest that the US so desperately needs bases in Bangladesh and Pakistan that it is organising coups would be outlandish.
• But then paranoia does not need evidence to thrive.
• The coup theory also gives too much credit to the CIA.
• The South Asian lore about the CIA’s prowess outpaces the agency’s capacity.
• Consider the following: The CIA could not organise the ouster of much-reviled President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela in the recent elections.
• The US failed to oust the communist regime in Cuba, in power for more than 60 years.
• Both are in America’s backyard.
• Over the last few years, Delhi and Washington have moved closer to each other on South Asian issues.
• In the last few months, there has been an important effort to reduce bilateral differences on Bangladesh.
• Recall that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had introduced Hasina to President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Delhi and encouraged Washington to reduce the political pressure on Dhaka.
• Despite the many questions about the January elections in Bangladesh, the Biden Administration offered to cooperate with the new government led by Hasina.
• The problem in the end was not between Delhi and Washington.
• It was about Hasina rapidly losing touch with her people.
• Even a massive collaboration between the RAW and the CIA could not have stopped the political clock that was ticking for Hasina’s unpopular rule.

Check Out UPSC Modules From PW Store

Conclusion

Understanding and addressing internal issues rather than blaming external forces can foster genuine political reform. Embracing self-reflection and constructive change will lead to more resilient democracies.

DOWNLOAD PDF