Bangladesh and the Foreign Hand Bogey

One of the more fascinating theories in the Indian media on the fall of Sheikh Hasina suggests that Muhammad Yunus, an 84-year old economist branded as a “CIA agent”, has led the overthrow of the mighty Awami League in Dhaka and outwitted its biggest external supporter and the regional power, India.

Bangladesh and the Foreign Hand Bogey

• Conspiracy theories have long enjoyed great currency in the Subcontinent.
• They don’t need proof and can’t be disproved.
• Rulers in South Asia have resorted to the “foreign hand” theory whenever they faced trouble at home.
• Conspiracy theories were the staple of Indian politics in the second half of the 20th century. 
• When she faced resistance against her authoritarianism, Indira Gandhi reflexively blamed the foreign hand, mostly the CIA.

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• As she imposed Emergency in 1975, Indira Gandhi and her left supporters blamed the “fascists” at home and the “imperialists” abroad for trying to overthrow her “progressive” government.
• One had thought that a “rising India” is now self- confident and secure in its own skin; and that it had overcome the impulse to blame the “foreign hand” for any unwelcome or unanticipated development.
• But the shock of “losing an ally” in Dhaka seems to have triggered a Delhi derangement.
• Conspiracy theories pander to political prejudices and discourage common sense.
• They avoid reckoning with the causes of a political catastrophe staring in your face.
• You don’t have to be a geopolitical genius to recognise that Sheikh Hasina was increasingly unpopular.
• She emaciated her party and turned it into a personal fief.
• Repeatedly rigged elections, a hardening monopoly over power, a shrinking bubble around the great leader, and growing authoritarianism combined with post-Covid economic challenges were building up anti- regime steam in Bangladesh for a while.
• The student movement against quotas provided the final trigger for the political blowout.
• We can certainly empathise with Sheikh Hasina for clinging to the conspiracy theory.
• For she might be in the very early stages of grief – denial – at the loss of power.
• It will be a while before she comes to terms with the sources of the tragic end to her extraordinary political career that has truly transformed Bangladesh.
• Hasina appears convinced that the US overthrew her because she refused to give America a military base. She is not the only South Asian leader who is blaming the US for losing power.
• To be sure, the US military is looking for bases and facilities as it responds to the Chinese military challenge in Asia.
• But to suggest that the US so desperately needs bases in Bangladesh and Pakistan that it is organising coups would be outlandish.
• But then paranoia does not need evidence to thrive.
• The coup theory also gives too much credit to the CIA.
• The South Asian lore about the CIA’s prowess outpaces the agency’s capacity.
• Consider the following: The CIA could not organise the ouster of much-reviled President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela in the recent elections.
• The US failed to oust the communist regime in Cuba, in power for more than 60 years.
• Both are in America’s backyard.
• Over the last few years, Delhi and Washington have moved closer to each other on South Asian issues.
• In the last few months, there has been an important effort to reduce bilateral differences on Bangladesh.
• Recall that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had introduced Hasina to President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Delhi and encouraged Washington to reduce the political pressure on Dhaka.
• Despite the many questions about the January elections in Bangladesh, the Biden Administration offered to cooperate with the new government led by Hasina.
• The problem in the end was not between Delhi and Washington.
• It was about Hasina rapidly losing touch with her people.
• Even a massive collaboration between the RAW and the CIA could not have stopped the political clock that was ticking for Hasina’s unpopular rule.

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Conclusion

Understanding and addressing internal issues rather than blaming external forces can foster genuine political reform. Embracing self-reflection and constructive change will lead to more resilient democracies.