China remains India’s principal strategic adversary, and worsening China–Japan relations create incentives for Japan to deepen strategic cooperation with India. The geopolitical realignment strengthens India’s Indo-Pacific partnerships.

Background for Rising Tensions

• Statement by Japanese PM: Tensions escalated after a statement by Japanese Prime Minister Takachi on 7 November where he declared that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would qualify as a “threat to Japan’s survival.”
• Implications of the Statement: The statement signals that Japan may consider military intervention to defend Taiwan. 
  • This represents a clear shift from Japan’s earlier policy of strategic ambiguity, provoking a strong reaction from China.

China’s Reactions

• Diplomatic and Economic Response: China demanded the withdrawal of the Japanese PM’s remarks, imposed a ban on Japanese seafood imports to raise economic pressure, and issued travel advisories discouraging visits to Japan.
• Military Response: China accused Japan of deploying missiles on Yonaguni Island near Taiwan, stepped up coast guard patrols around the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, and warned that any Japanese role in Taiwan’s defence would be treated as aggression.
• Historical Drivers of Mistrust: China’s reaction draws from Japan’s colonial occupation and wartime atrocities.
  • Taiwan remained under Japanese rule from 1895 to 1945, deepening Chinese sensitivity.
  • China treats Taiwan as a core sovereignty issue under the One China Policy, widely acknowledged globally for economic engagement.
• The Strategic Paradox: Despite political hostility, Japan and China maintain over $300 billion in annual trade. This economic interdependence remains a stabilising force in East Asia.

Impact of Current State of Relations Between China and Japan

• Emerging Regional Hostility: Strong nationalist rhetoric in Japan and assertive responses from China have ushered in a new phase of confrontation in East Asia.
• Global and Regional Implications: Escalating tensions risk disrupting global supply chains and weakening regional security architecture. The Taiwan issue remains deeply complex, reducing prospects of a quick resolution.

Way Forward

• Maintain Status Quo: The prudent way forward is to maintain the status quo, avoid provocative statements, and prioritise trade and economic engagement.
• Economic Refocus: Leaders should prioritize $300 billion trade relationship over nationalist posturing.
• Role of the United States: The US, as Japan’s security guarantor, is a central actor in the crisis. Even minor miscalculations by China or Japan could trigger a major conflict involving the United States.

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Conclusion

Rising China–Japan tensions make strategic restraint and preservation of the status quo essential to prevent a wider conflict in East Asia. 

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