Afghanistan–Pakistan Conflict: Strategic Depth, Taliban Tensions & India’s Security Concerns

Rising cross-border tensions between Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and Pakistan have escalated into open hostilities, driven by security concerns and retaliatory strikes along the Durand Line.

The Outbreak and Nature of the Conflict

• Airstrikes and Casualties: Pakistan has launched multiple air strikes on various sites within Afghanistan, resulting in a state of open war and the loss of many lives.
• Bhasmasur Syndrome (Blowback Effect): Pakistan historically supported the Taliban to use them as a puppet for its own interests, but that group has now become the very entity destroying Pakistan’s stability.

The Concept of “Strategic Depth”

• Geographic Vulnerability: Pakistan’s military strategy has long sought “strategic depth” in Afghanistan, given Pakistan’s geographic narrowness.
• Retreat and Regroup Strategy: The military logic was that if India ever attacked and pushed deep into Pakistani territory, their forces could retreat into Afghanistan, regroup, and then launch a counter-attack. 
  • This motivated their long-term support for the Taliban during the US-led democratic era in Afghanistan.

Motivations Behind Pakistan’s Actions

• Managing Public Anger: Rising attacks by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have increased domestic pressure on the military.
• Symbolic Military Action: Limited tangible targets in Afghanistan make airstrikes largely demonstrative rather than decisive.
• Externalisation of Internal Crisis: Escalation diverts attention from unrest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

Escalation and Afghan Retaliation

• Fierce Retaliation: Contrary to expectations of a restrained response, the Afghan Taliban retaliated forcefully, targeting several positions inside Pakistan.
• Loss of Escalation Control: The conflict reportedly compelled Pakistan to seek diplomatic mediation from regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
• Resilience of Afghanistan: Despite limited conventional military capabilities, Afghanistan has historically demonstrated strong resistance capacity, having endured prolonged conflicts against major powers such as the USSR and the USA.

Strategic Lessons and Warnings for India

• Risk of Diversionary Escalation: Internal instability in Pakistan may incentivise its leadership to externalise domestic pressures through military provocation against India.
• Doctrine Spillover Risk: If the logic of striking a neighbour for allegedly sheltering militants is normalised, similar accusations against India (e.g., regarding Baloch groups) could be used to justify hostile actions.
• Credible and Visible Deterrence: India must sustain strong military preparedness and signalling capacity to ensure that any aggression carries unacceptable costs.
• Clear Red Lines: India should reinforce its counter-terrorism grid and articulate firm strategic boundaries, ensuring that any violation invites a swift, decisive, and proportionate response.

Check Out UPSC CSE Books

Visit PW Store

Conclusion

The Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict highlights the risks of proxy policies and internal instability, emphasising the need for India to maintain strong deterrence and strategic clarity to prevent escalation.

DOWNLOAD PDF