Danger of Playing Catch Up With Defence Technology

The recent escalation in West Asia following the US–Israel attack on Iran marks the return of great-power rivalry and intensifying global military competition driven by rapid advancements in defence technology.

The Global Tech Race

• Return of Hard Power Metrics : Military strength is increasingly measured by naval fleets, air power, and technological superiority, much like in early 20th-century geopolitics.
• Massive Defence Budget: The US defence budget is approaching $1 trillion, exceeding the combined defence spending of the next nine countries.
  • China: It has become a hegemon in the Indo-Pacific region, with a defence budget equal to the combined defence budgets of the next 22 countries. Its shipbuilding speed now exceeds that of the US.

India’s “2% Trap” and Modernisation Crisis

• Budget Constraint: According to the M.M. Joshi Committee, India’s defence spending has remained around 2% of GDP since 2014, creating a “2% trap” that limits modernisation.
• Indian Air Force (IAF): Slow production of the HAL Tejas and delays in fifth-generation fighter aircraft programmes have affected the pace of fleet modernisation.
• Indian Navy: Key submarine acquisition programmes such as Project 75I and Project 77 face significant delays.
• Indian Army: Modernisation of artillery, surveillance, and battlefield systems has progressed slowly due to limited capital expenditure (Capital expenditure remains below 30% of the defence budget).

Challenges in Defence Indigenisation

• Policy Implementation Gaps: Ambitious defence indigenisation policies often face weak implementation, leading to a gap between announcements and outcomes.
• Limited Success of Atmanirbhar Bharat: Defence production and export targets remain unmet despite repeated policy commitments to self-reliance.
  • The government set a defence export target of ₹35,000 crore for 2025, but actual exports reached only about ₹23,000 crore.
  • Instead of addressing structural gaps behind the shortfall, a higher target of ₹50,000 crore was subsequently announced.
• Public Sector Constraints: Defence PSUs face issues such as limited production capacity, delivery delays, and inefficient procurement structures.
• Technology Dependence: India continues to rely on foreign technology and equipment for advanced defence systems, limiting true strategic autonomy.

Proposed Roadmap for Strengthening Defence Capability

• Increase Defence Spending: The Government should raise defence expenditure to 3% of GDP by 2030 and 5% of GDP by 2035 to support modernisation and preparedness.
• Integrated R&D Ecosystem: There is a need to build a coherent research system by integrating private industry, IITs, and government defence laboratories to accelerate innovation in critical technologies.

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Conclusion

Echoing Winston Churchill’s warning about the “locust years”—periods of dangerous complacency while threats grow—India must end its strategic inertia and urgently strengthen defence spending, technological capabilities, and indigenous innovation to secure its national interests in an increasingly volatile world.

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