Decoding India’s Foreign Policy 2025

The year 2025 began with high expectations for Indian diplomacy, particularly with Donald Trump’s return, but ended with significant challenges.

The United States- Strategic Friction

• America First Policy: Under Trump, the US has become a challenging partner for India.
• Trade Barriers: India faces a 25% reciprocal tariff on goods, particularly affecting labour-intensive sectors like textiles, gems, and seafood. 
  • An additional 25% surcharge was imposed on oil imports from Russia.
• GSP Removal & H1B Visa Restrictions: The revocation of India’s Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) status and new H1B visa restrictions threaten remittance flows. 
  • GSP provides preferential duty-free treatment to products from developing countries, promoting economic growth.
• US National Security Strategy (NSS):
• • 2017 NSS: India recognised as a Leading Global Power; China as a Revisionist Power.
  • 2025 NSS: India’s role narrowed to the Indo-Pacific region and mineral security.
• US-China Dynamics: The US’ soft posture toward China and Russia hints at a potential G-2 world order, which could reduce India’s strategic influence.

Performative Diplomacy- China and Russia

• China: Despite high-level meetings, no security guarantees emerged on the LAC; stapled visa incidents, such as the 2025 Shanghai case, continue to strain ties. Stapled visa signals non-recognition of nationality.
• Russia: Symbolic “bear hugs” dominate bilateral optics; no major new deals in defence, nuclear, or space sectors have materialised, and Russia is increasingly aligning with China.

Pakistan- Rising Threats

• Terror Attack in Pahalgam (April 2025): India responded with Operation Sindoor, a retaliatory strike.
• Global Reaction: While the attack was condemned internationally, India’s retaliation failed to gain diplomatic support.
• Strategic Shifts: Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan formed a new strategic axis; the Saudi-Pak defence pact contributes to India’s strategic encirclement.

Other Neighbours of India- Regional Instability

• Bangladesh and Nepal: Regime changes in both countries led to the formation of transitional governments. Relations in the region are at their lowest ebb and are not friendly toward India.
• Myanmar: In Myanmar, the junta is holding sham elections in December 2025. India’s democratic appeal failed to stabilise the region.
• Kautilya’s Mandala Theory: Kautilya’s Mandala Theory remains relevant, the theory states that “your neighbor is your natural enemy.”

Check Out UPSC CSE Books

Visit PW Store

Way Forward

• Move Beyond Performative Diplomacy: Public gestures must be backed by tangible outcomes in trade, security, and strategic cooperation.
• Adopt a Consistent Values-Based Approach: Ensure messaging aligns with actions to avoid perceptions of hypocrisy.
• Diplomatic Stance: India should project itself as Vishwamitra—constructive global friend—while avoiding a Vishwa-victim narrative.

Conclusion

India’s foreign policy in 2025 reflects a complex interplay of trade frictions, regional instability, and symbolic diplomacy. To safeguard strategic interests, India must prioritise outcomes over optics, maintain a values-driven approach, and actively balance global power dynamics while reinforcing its role as a credible and constructive global actor.

DOWNLOAD PDF