Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a mutual defence pact, treating aggression against one as aggression against both, formalising their partnership rooted in Saudi financial support and Pakistani military training.

Timing and Shifting Gulf Security Order 

• Trigger for Agreement: The agreement followed Israel’s attack on Qatar, underscoring the rapidly evolving security dynamics of the Persian Gulf.
• Changing Security Dynamics: With the U.S. focus moving away from West Asia, regional monarchies are increasingly seeking alternatives to American security guarantees.
• Lessons from Past U.S. Inaction: When Iranian allies attacked Saudi oil installations in 2019, the U.S. did not intervene. 
  • U.S’s muted response to Israel’s strike on Qatar, despite America’s largest base being hosted there, has triggered doubts about the durability of U.S. commitments.
• Fallout of the Abraham Accords: The Abraham Accords, designed by the U.S. to build an Arab-Israel front against Iran, saw limited Arab participation. 
  • Saudi Arabia’s expected entry was stalled after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack and Israel’s ongoing Gaza war, which has destabilised the region further.
• Saudi Arabia Diversifying Alliances: Through the defence pact with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is sending a strong signal to both the USA and Israel that it is diversifying its security partnerships, rather than relying solely on the U.S. or inching closer to Israel.
• Pakistan’s Strategic Gains: For Pakistan, which is struggling economically, this agreement provides both much-needed Saudi financial assistance and an opportunity to project itself as a credible security provider in a region unsettled by Israel’s unchecked militarism.
• Strategic Implications for India: For India, which fought a brief war with Pakistan in May, the pact complicates its manoeuvring in West Asia. 
• Risks of Entrapment for Both Partners: The agreement carries risks of entrapment.
  • Pakistan could be dragged into West Asia’s ongoing conflicts, while Saudi Arabia could be pulled into South and Central Asian tensions involving Pakistan.
• India’s Policy Choices: India must prepare for rapid changes in West Asia’s security order. 
  • Doubling down on an isolated and militaristic Israel would be a mistake. 
  • Instead, India should prioritise promoting stability and maintaining a strategic balance across all pillars of its West Asia policy.

Conclusion

• The Saudi–Pakistan defence pact signals shifting power equations in West Asia, raising new security risks for India. To safeguard its interests, India must combine military readiness with strategic diplomacy and resilient energy partnerships.

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