The melting of Arctic ice is opening up the Northern Sea Route (NSR) , providing new opportunities in the region along with the threat to the environment.

Changing Dynamics of Global Trade

• Trade Realignments: Global trade is swinging like a pendulum due to potential headwinds from the U.S. Countries are now doubling down on alternate trade strategies, breaking away from regional blocs.
• Reason of Change: Climate change is now influencing partnerships around supply chains and trade routes. The Arctic, once a remote frontier, now plays a central role in geopolitical and environmental discussions.

Arctic Trade Route

• Opportunity: The Arctic serves as a “canary in the coal mine” for climate catastrophe. Simultaneously, it presents geopolitical leverage as sea levels rise and new trade routes emerge.
• Emerging Routes: September Arctic sea-ice is shrinking at a rate of 12.2% per decade (compared to 1981–2010). This has opened the Northern Sea Route (NSR), linking the Atlantic and the Pacific. 
  • The NSR is being hailed as the shortest route between Europe and Asia, offering significant savings in time and cost.
• Rising Temperatures: Cargo on the NSR surged from 41,000 tonnes in 2010 to 37.9 million tonnes in 2024. However, global temperatures breached the 1.5°C mark above pre-industrial levels in 2024 (Nature Climate Change).
• Chinese Expansion: Closer alignment with Russia could indirectly mean supporting China’s Polar Silk Road, a northern extension of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 
  • The NSR could allow China to bypass the Malacca Strait chokepoint, gaining greater control over Arctic trade routes.

India’s Arctic Policy

• Scientific Engagement: India signed the Svalbard Treaty in 1920, marking early Arctic involvement. It is the only developing nation besides China with an Arctic research base – Himadri.
• Climate Linkages: In 2023, India studied how Arctic sea ice loss could affect its monsoons and agricultural outputs, with support from the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and the National Council of Applied Economic Research.
• Budgetary Support: The 2025–26 Budget created a $3 billion Maritime Development Fund for the Shipping Ministry. It promotes shipbuilding clusters to enhance the range, categories, and capacity of ships.
• Arctic-Ready Infrastructure: India must invest in ice-breaking fleets and structural upgrades. Building shipbuilding muscle is key to navigating NSR’s turbulent conditions.
• Arctic Circle India Forum 2025: Scheduled for May 3–4 in New Delhi, the Forum is expected to contextualise dialogue from an Asia- and India-focused lens drive stakeholder consultations, forge partnerships  and possibly lead to the appointment of a ‘Polar Ambassador’
• Russia-India Partnership: Russia’s vast Arctic coastline, experience in Arctic navigation, and trained personnel make it a natural partner for India. 
  • A decision to form a working group on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) was taken during the Modi-Putin summit in July 2024 in Moscow. 
  • This group operates under the bilateral intergovernmental commission on trade, economic, scientific, technical, and cultural cooperation
• Constraints: Aligning with the Western bloc, especially the U.S., might lead India to lose out on access to Arctic natural resources and territorial stakes currently under Russian control

Way Forward for India

• International Cooperation: India should engage in multilateral dialogue on capacity building, training requisites, and knowledge sharing.
• Balancing Interests: India must ensure that in seeking commercial advantage, it does not accelerate ecological disaster in the fragile Arctic ecosystem and Undermine the Paris Agreement goals
• Strategic Partnerships: India must align with like-minded allies to balance geopolitical goals, commercial interests, and environmental stewardship.
• Maritime Corridor: The Chennai–Vladivostok Maritime Corridor is emerging as a potential bridge connecting Indian ports to NSR ports like Pevek, Tiksi, and Sabetta.
• Multilateral Engagement: India’s ideal strategy is to find a balanced engagement with both the U.S. and Russia. This dual approach would maximize strategic and economic interests while maintaining geopolitical neutrality.
• Inclusion of East Asian Allies: Japan and South Korea should be critical partners in India’s Arctic strategy. Both nations share concerns about growing China-Russia Arctic cooperation. 
  • Their businesses face threats of being outcompeted by Chinese firms in Arctic ventures.
• Reforming the Arctic Council: India, along with Japan and South Korea, should push for rectification of disparities within the Arctic Council and a more inclusive and equitable governance framework

Conclusion

India’s Arctic engagement must balance strategic partnerships, commercial ambitions, and environmental responsibilities. A neutral yet proactive approach with both Western and Russian blocs is essential.

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