Israel and the Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal, bringing an end to more than 15 months of war, following negotiations brokered by Egyptian and Qatari mediators.
Phased Plan for Conflict Resolution in Gaza
First Phase (42 Days)
- Hamas Actions: Release of 33 Israeli hostages, including female civilians, soldiers, children, and civilians over 50.
- Israel Actions: Release of 30 Palestinian prisoners per civilian hostage and 50 per female soldier.
- Ceasefire and withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas to a 7km-wide buffer zone inside Gaza.
- Pullout from Netzarim Corridor while retaining control over the Philadelphia Corridor throughout the phase.
- Humanitarian Measures: Displaced Palestinians begin to return to their homes with increased aid entering Gaza.
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Second Phase (42 Days)
- Ceasefire Declaration: A state of “sustainable calm” is declared.
- Hamas Actions: Release of remaining male hostages (soldiers and civilians) in exchange for a yet-to-be-negotiated number of Palestinian prisoners.
- Israeli Actions: Full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
Third Phase
- Reconciliation Measures: Exchange of bodies of deceased Israeli hostages for deceased Palestinian fighters.
- Reconstruction and Mobility: Implementation of a reconstruction plan in Gaza. Reopening of border crossings for movement in and out of Gaza.
Analysis of the Gaza Peace Agreement
- Humanitarian and Social Impact: Immediate relief for Palestinians in Gaza, who endured severe hardship due to prolonged conflict, including shortages of food, medicine, and basic necessities. Civilians’ celebrations reflect a desperate need for peace, even if temporary.
- Political Calculations and Legacies: The ceasefire occurred at a politically sensitive moment, just before the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s swearing-in, with outgoing President Joe Biden involved in brokering the deal.
- For Trump: The deal symbolizes “renewed American strength” and aligns with his campaign promises.
- For Biden: It serves as an effort to leave a positive legacy, particularly in foreign affairs.
- Strategic Moves by Key Leaders:
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Signals a strategic compromise by accepting the deal, aligning with U.S. expectations.
- Balances domestic criticism with international diplomacy to maintain a relationship with the incoming U.S. administration.
- Persistent Ideological Conflicts: The ceasefire does not address underlying ideological and territorial disputes. Hamas and Israel remain firmly opposed to a two-state solution. The potential for resumed violence looms, as both sides retain grievances and readiness for retaliation.
- Regional and Global Stakes Rebuilding Gaza and providing humanitarian aid require broader political and logistical coordination.
- Reshaping Palestinian politics and reinvigorating the Palestinian Authority is seen as a potential way forward.
- The ceasefire’s sustainability impacts broader West Asian geopolitics, including:
- The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.
- The Abraham Accords.
- Potential Saudi-Israel normalization.
- International Community’s Role: The success or failure of the ceasefire depends on sustained international pressure and assistance to transition from a temporary truce to long-term stability.
- The global push for peace remains focused on achieving a two-state solution, but its implementation is fraught with challenges.
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Conclusion
The Gaza ceasefire offers temporary relief but leaves key disputes unresolved. Regional cooperation and international support are essential for rebuilding efforts and long-term stability. A two-state solution remains critical for lasting peace in the region.