IMD predicts above-normal temperatures for 10-11 days during the summer season, particularly in central and eastern Indian states like Odisha, Jharkhand, and eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Summer Forecast

• Higher Night Temperatures: Except for the Himalayan and sub-Himalayan regions, night temperatures are expected to be higher than usual across all states.
• Early Heatwaves: Certain regions, such as Gujarat, Odisha, and Vidarbha (Maharashtra), have already experienced above-normal heatwave conditions (3-5 days) in March.

Global Warming Trends and Heatwaves in 2024

• WMO’s Report: According to the State of the Global Climate 2024 report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), 2024 was the warmest year in the last 175 years, with a global mean near-surface temperature 1.55 ± 0.13°C above the 1850-1900 average, surpassing the 1.5°C barrier.
• Extreme Heat in India: 2024 marked the most intense heatwave year in India, with June in northwestern India experiencing a record 181 heatwave days.

Impacts of Extreme Heat

• Economic Costs: The economic costs of extreme heat include:
  • Labour productivity losses
  • Agricultural impacts
  • Healthcare costs
  • Infrastructure damage
    
  • Supply chain disruptions
• Projected Losses: The Reserve Bank of India’s Department of Economic and Policy Research warned that climate change could lead to GDP losses up to 2.8% and contribute to 34 million global job losses by 2100.
• Urbanisation Impact: Rapid urbanisation has led to hotter cities, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect, with cities potentially warming by 4°C by 2100.
• Health and Social Impacts: Such temperature rises could lead to significant health challenges in densely populated urban and peri-urban areas. Extreme heat is associated with:
  • Excess mortality risks
  • School closures
  • Livelihood loss
  • Water shortages
  • Power outages
  • Food insecurity
• Global Urgency on Climate Action: UN Secretary-General’s Call: António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, called for urgent action to address extreme heat in July 2024, emphasizing four critical areas Caring for vulnerable populations, Protecting workers from extreme heat
  • Boosting resilience of economies and societies through data and science and Limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C by phasing out fossil fuels and investing in renewable energy

Heat Action Plans (HAPs) in India

• About: Heat Action Plans (HAPs) have become the dominant tool for managing heat-related health risks in Indian cities. 
• Origins: The concept of such plans gained prominence globally after extreme heat events (EHEs) in 2003 in Europe and North America, which led to the development of heat-health response plans. 
• Origin in India: In India, the earliest heat health action plan dates back to 1999, following the 1998 Odisha heatwave, which claimed over 2000 lives.
• WHO/Europe’s Framework: The WHO/Europe initiated the EURO-HEAT Project (2005-2007) to assess and guide the creation of HAPs globally. This project outlined a framework consisting of eight core elements for heat-health action planning:
  • Agreement on a lead body for coordination
  • Accurate and timely alert systems
  • Heat-related health information plan
  • Reduction in indoor heat exposure
  • Particular care for vulnerable groups
  • Preparedness of the health and social care system
  • Long-term urban planning
  • Real-time surveillance and evaluation
• Key Findings:  The analysis covered 8 Indian cities (Ahmedabad, Bhubaneswar, Delhi, Jodhpur, Rajkot, Surat, Thane, and Vadodara) where HAPs were framed or updated between 2014 and 2018. 
  • The analysis primarily focuses on the provisions of the HAPs rather than their performance.
• High Coverage: Elements like ‘agreement on a lead body’, ‘health information plans’, ‘accurate and timely alert systems’, and ‘reduction in indoor heat exposure’ are well covered in the HAPs.
• Low Coverage: Long-term institutional planning and intersectoral coordination, such as ‘particular care for vulnerable groups’, ‘preparedness of health/social care systems’, ‘long-term urban planning’, and ‘real-time surveillance’, are less represented.
• Performance of Individual Cities: Thane has the highest coverage of sub-elements (38 out of 42), followed by Bhubaneswar and Delhi (37 each). Vadodara has the least coverage (17 out of 42), followed by Surat (28).
• Focus: Health information plans were the best-represented core element, with a focus on the public and medical professionals, but there was a noticeable absence of information tailored to specific populations, such as children and other vulnerable groups.
• • Thane HAP is the only one to include a monitoring and evaluation framework, ensuring that the effectiveness of the plan can be assessed in real-time.

Challenges and Gaps in HAP

• Vulnerable Groups: The ‘particular care for vulnerable groups’ element remains underrepresented in most of the HAPs, which is crucial for ensuring that at-risk populations like children, the elderly, and the poor are given due attention in response plans.
• Long-term Planning: There is a lack of long-term urban planning to ensure that cities are designed to withstand increasing heat events. This includes measures like increased green spaces and urban cooling.
• Surveillance: Real-time surveillance is largely missing, hindering timely responses to heatwaves and their impacts.
• Weakness of Long-term Measures: Long-term measures in Heat Action Plans (HAPs) remain the weakest component. Heat should not be treated as an episodic hazard, like floods or cyclones, which are typically marked by immediate destructiveness.
  
  • The acute disaster framing of heat health compromises the scope of planning for heatwaves and addressing the social vulnerability of affected populations.
• Lack of Legal Mandates: Unlike air quality management in the National Capital Region (NCR), where the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) system is legally mandated to be automatically operational with deteriorating air quality under the oversight of the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM), there is no equivalent legal mandate for managing heat risks.

Way Forward

• Rapid Intervention: While heatwaves require rapid interventions when alerts are issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the lag in death occurrences can often span several days after a heatwave.
•  Heatwave Naming: To increase public awareness and facilitate better communication, experiments are being conducted to name heatwaves, similar to the standardized system used for hurricanes.
  • For example, “Zoe” was the first named heatwave in Seville, Spain in 2022, marking an attempt to engage the public more effectively on heat-related risks.
• WHO Recommendations: The World Health Organization (WHO) strongly advocates that the health sector should lead the heat-health response by focusing on:
  • Strengthening governance for better heat management.
  • Improving preparedness and response strategies to mitigate acute impacts on high-risk populations, such as the elderly, children, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions.

Conclusion

While interventions are necessary when heat alerts are issued, addressing social vulnerabilities and proactive heat management should be integral to comprehensive heat-health response strategies. The WHO’s focus on health sector leadership can provide a framework for India to enhance its response to extreme heat events.

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