After 26 Indian tourists were killed in Pahalgam by terrorists from The Resistance Front, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security decided to hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 

Nature and Legal Framework of the IWT

• No Exit Clause: The IWT has no provision for unilateral withdrawal. As per Article XII(4), it can only be terminated by a duly ratified treaty between both governments.
• Vienna Convention: Indian analysts cite Articles 60 and 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT) to justify revocation. 
  • However, India is not a party, and Pakistan has only signed, not ratified, the VCLT — making its use legally complex.

International Ramifications

• Pakistan’s Countermeasures: Pakistan may approach the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or even the International Court of Justice, claiming India has violated the 1969 VCLT. The UN Security Council may also be invoked.
• Risk of Internationalising : Suspension of the treaty could internationalise the water-sharing issue, inviting third-party intervention in what has been a bilateral arrangement since 1960.
• Strategic Water Leverage: India can now stop sharing water flow data, flush reservoirs, and release water strategically to impact Pakistan’s agriculture — withholding in dry seasons and releasing in monsoons, triggering drought or flood-like situations.
• Impact on Pakistan: The western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — are vital to Pakistan’s agriculture, drinking water, and hydroelectricity. Any disruption can cause severe domestic consequences.
• Intensifying Disputes: Water flow reduction may worsen disputes between Punjab and Sindh, especially over controversial projects like the Cholistan Canal. Due to protests, Pakistan’s federal government paused these canal projects.
• Implications for China’s Cooperation: India’s suspension of the IWT could give China a pretext to refuse renewal of MoUs on data sharing regarding rivers like the Sutlej and Brahmaputra, especially as these have already expired.
• Doklam and Hydro Data: During the 2017 Doklam crisis, China withheld hydro data from India but shared it with Bangladesh, signalling how strategic and political issues influence water-sharing cooperation.
• Impact on Ganga Treaty with Bangladesh: India’s decision on the IWT may impact the renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty, due in 2026, especially given the current diplomatic strain with Bangladesh.
• Nepal and Sri Lanka: A section of Nepali public opinion may urge caution in water-related agreements, while some Sri Lankan commentators are advocating a careful approach in bilateral deals with India.

India’s Infrastructure Challenge

• Need for Capacity Enhancement: To fully utilise the IWT’s provisions, India must invest in large-scale infrastructure. Though allowed to store 3.6 MAF and irrigate 1.34 million acres, India currently stores only 1 MAF and irrigates 0.642 million acres.
• Eastern Rivers: India already uses over 90% of its share of the eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi through major dams like Bhakra, Pong, and Ranjit Sagar, offering a template for future western river development.
• Western River Waters: India is developing hydroelectric projects like the Kishanganga, Ratle, Salal, Nimoo Bazgo, and Baglihar Dams to utilise its allocated share under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers.
• Infrastructure Limits: The dams have limited storage capacities — Baglihar (475 MCM), Salal (285 MCM), Ratle (78.71 MCM), and Kishanganga (18.35 MCM) — restricting India’s ability to retain water during peak flows into Pakistan.
• Planned Projects: Upcoming projects like Kiru Dam, Pakal Dul, and the under-construction Ratle Dam aim to tap into the Chenab River and its tributaries, furthering India’s hydroelectric agenda.
• Run-of-the-River Limitations: Most western river projects are run-of-the-river with minimal storage, reducing India’s ability to significantly control or reduce water flows into Pakistan.
• Bureaucratic Bottlenecks: The Himalayan terrain, combined with bureaucratic delays, means building infrastructure to fully utilise treaty entitlements may take a decade or more.

Conclusion

While India may justify IWT suspension on national security grounds, regional trust could erode if neighbours view the move as unilateral or aggressive, complicating existing and future water agreements.

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