The escalating Gaza war, triggered by the October 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict, threatens regional stability in West Asia, with implications for India’s trade, energy security, and strategic projects.
Note:
- “West Asia” is a geographically accurate term referring to the westernmost region of Asia, including countries like Turkey, Iran, and the Arabian Peninsula.
- “Middle East” is a broader, Eurocentric term that often includes parts of North Africa (like Egypt) and is commonly used in geopolitical contexts
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Key Conflicts in Middle East
1. Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
- Background: It is primarily a territorial and national conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, driven by issues of land, sovereignty, identity, and historical grievances.
- Palestinians seek an independent state in the West Bank and Gaza, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
- However, Israel claims Jerusalem as its undivided capital and has established settlements in the West Bank, which are considered illegal under international law.
- The Palestinian political landscape is divided between Hamas and Fatah, two major political factions that differ significantly in their approaches to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- Hamas, a militant Islamist group, governs the Gaza Strip and has refused to recognize Israel’s right to exist.
- Fatah, the leading faction of the Palestinian Authority (PA), governs parts of the West Bank.
2. Shia vs Sunni Conflict
- Background: The Shia-Sunni divide is a deep religious and political split within Islam.
- Sunni Islam emphasises the role of the broader community and its scholars in interpreting Islamic law and tradition.
- Shia Islam holds that spiritual authority resides with a line of imams, who are believed to be divinely chosen descendants of Ali.
- The Shia-Sunni divide has deepened due to geopolitical rivalries.
- For instance, predominantly Shia Iran often opposes Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia, fueling regional tensions and shaping conflicts.
- Proxy Conflicts
- Syria: The Assad regime, rooted in the Alawite sect (a Shia offshoot), has strong backing from Iran and Hezbollah.
- This has entrenched the Shia-Sunni divide in the Syrian civil war.
- Yemen: The Yemeni conflict features a Sunni-led government supported by Saudi Arabia against Houthi rebels, a Shia-affiliated group backed by Iran.
Abraham Accords:
- The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, marked a major shift in Middle East geopolitics by normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations, primarily the UAE and Bahrain.
- This realignment stemmed from shared strategic concerns, particularly the growing influence of Iran and the rise of militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which posed mutual security threats.
- These countries saw Israel as a valuable partner in countering Iran’s regional ambitions and fostering stability.
- The accords also prioritized collaboration in trade, technology, tourism, and security.
- However, they left the Israeli-Palestinian conflict unresolved. In response to Israeli military actions in Gaza, such as the 2021 conflict resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage, public backlash across the region led to increased solidarity with Palestinians.
- This caused some Middle Eastern nations, including signatories of the Abraham Accords, to reassess their engagement with Israel.
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Current Middle East Crisis
- Conflict Expansion: The war has intensified in Gaza and risks spreading to other regions due to the involvement of groups like Hezbollah, Ansar Allah (Houthis), militias in Iraq, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
- Regional Instability: Saudi Arabia’s firm stance on linking normalisation with Israel to progress on the Palestinian issue complicates regional diplomacy and exacerbates fears of broader conflict, potentially involving the Persian Gulf.
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The Middle East and Its Importance to India
- Trade and Commerce
- Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are among India’s most important trade partners.
- India imports various goods from the region, including oil and gas, while also exporting pharmaceuticals, chemicals, agricultural products, and automobiles.
- Energy Security
- The Middle East provides a significant share of India’s oil and natural gas imports.
- Ensuring access to affordable energy from the Gulf is crucial to support India’s economic growth and developmental aspirations.
- Investment and Remittances
- Two-way investments between India and the Middle East, particularly in infrastructure and energy sectors, enhance economic ties.
- A large Indian diaspora in the Gulf sends substantial remittances back to India, contributing significantly to the Indian economy.
- India as a Net Security Provider
- India’s growing influence in the region aligns with its aspirations to be a key player in regional stability, countering extremism and ensuring the safety of vital shipping lanes and trade routes.
- Employment and Corporate Engagement
- Indian workers in the Middle East play a vital role in sectors like construction, healthcare, and hospitality, contributing to the region’s workforce needs.
- Additionally, Indian companies are expanding their presence in the Middle East, particularly in construction, IT services, and engineering sectors.
Importance of Iran for India:
- Trade:
- Energy: Iran is a key supplier of oil and gas. India imports energy from Iran, and despite sanctions, Iran remains vital for India’s energy security.
- Other Goods: India exports pharmaceuticals, chemicals, agriculture products, and automobiles to Iran.
- Cultural Ties & Shia Population:
- India has a large Shia Muslim population. Iran’s role as a Shia cultural centre strengthens these bonds.
- Connectivity:
- Chabahar Port: Key for bypassing Pakistan, connecting India to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
- INSTC: The International North-South Transport Corridor boosts trade routes between India, Russia, and Central Asia.
- Security & Counterterrorism:
- India and Iran share concerns over terrorism and extremism, particularly from Sunni groups. Iran’s treatment of its Shia population in Pakistan also aligns with India’s security interests.
- Economic Cooperation:
- India has invested in Chabahar Port and other projects, enhancing trade access to regional markets.
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Implications for India
1. Economic Challenges
- Trade and Supply Chain Disruption:
- Conflict in the Red Sea could disrupt critical shipping lanes, affecting India-Europe trade and increasing costs.
- Delays in the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) due to regional instability may hinder India’s trade diversification and connectivity.
- Energy Security Risks:
- Escalating hostilities could disrupt oil and gas supplies, causing price surges and affecting India’s energy security.
- Rising energy costs could lead to inflation and budgetary stress, impacting fiscal stability.
- Impact on Tourism:
- Tensions could also harm the tourism sector, as the Middle East is a key partner in India’s tourism industry.
2. Geopolitical Considerations
- Balancing Relations:
- India must navigate complex ties with Israel, Arab Gulf states, and Iran, balancing strategic and economic interests in the region.
- Global Diplomacy:
- Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, especially with changing U.S. leadership, could create uncertainty and complicate India’s diplomacy.
3. Strategic Challenges
- Halt of Key Initiatives:
- Regional instability could delay or halt IMEC and I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, U.S.) initiatives, impacting trade and regional cooperation.
Way Forward for India
- Enhance domestic energy alternatives and secure diversified trade routes to reduce vulnerability to Middle Eastern conflicts.
- Strengthen regional partnerships, particularly with GCC countries, to bolster economic and security collaboration.
- Mediate through multilateral platforms to de-escalate regional tensions and promote stability.
- Balance engagement with major stakeholders, leveraging India’s neutrality to maintain robust relations across the spectrum.
- Develop strategies to address potential disruptions in trade and energy supplies, focusing on supply chain resilience and financial risk management.
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Conclusion
The ongoing Gaza war highlights the interconnectedness of global geopolitics and its impact on India’s economic and strategic aspirations. India must navigate the challenges through proactive diplomacy, strategic preparedness, and economic resilience to safeguard its interests in the region and beyond.
November 23, 2024
