Reports suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may allow the Taliban to appoint a new envoy for its embassy in New Delhi.

India’s Growing Engagement with the Taliban

• Political and Economic Ties: In January 2025, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Taliban’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. 
  • Discussions focused on political engagement, economic cooperation, and humanitarian aid.
• Approach: India reopened its embassy in Kabul in June 2022, signaling a gradual engagement strategy. This contrasts with most countries that refuse to recognise the Taliban due to its severe restrictions on women’s rights.
• Human Right Violation: The Taliban’s policies, described as “gender apartheid” by United Nations experts, have severely restricted women’s rights, including the denial of education, affecting 1.4 million school-age girls, employment bans across most sectors, and restrictions on public life, such as bans on beauty parlours and national parks.
• Strategic Calculations: Afghanistan’s strategic importance drives India’s engagement. New Delhi sees an opportunity to increase influence in the region, despite global opposition to the Taliban’s policies.

Geopolitical Competition in Afghanistan

• China’s Policy:  China became the first country to accept a Taliban-appointed envoy in 2023. Beijing is funding multiple infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.
• BRI Inclusion: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may soon include the Taliban regime, strengthening China’s economic and political influence in the region.
• India’s Advantage: Pakistan’s influence over the Taliban has declined, despite being a former patron. The Taliban now seeks independence from Islamabad and has strengthened ties with China, Russia, and Central Asian countries.
  • India can use this shift to its advantage, improving its own strategic position in Afghanistan.

Risks of Engaging with the Taliban

• Terrorist Hub: Islamic State (IS) operations have escalated, increasingly targeting the Taliban and its allies. 
  • Notable attacks include the December 2023 assassination of Taliban powerbroker Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani
  • Threats in 2023 to bomb the Chinese embassy in Kabul, and the 2022 attack on a Kabul hotel popular with Chinese nationals.
• IS Attacks : Islamic State (IS) operations have extended beyond Afghanistan, with a March 2024 attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, which killed 140+ people. 
  • Earlier in March 2024, Russian security agencies neutralized a terror suspect linked to IS, highlighting the group’s expanding threat.
• Regional Terrorism: The Taliban has been accused of harboring Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), escalating cross-border tensions.
  • In February 2024, TTP claimed responsibility for 147 attacks in Pakistan, resulting in the deaths of 180 soldiers. 
  • A recent attack by Jaish Al-Fursan (a TTP affiliate) involved a suicide bombing in Pakistan, killing 9 soldiers.
• Targeting India: In December 2023, Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for an attack on the Indian consulate in Jalalabad. 
  • A 2023 UN report highlighted IS’s efforts in recruiting “lone actors” for attacks in India, indicating that the country now faces direct security threats from IS-linked networks.
• Persistent Political Instability: Afghanistan has remained highly volatile for decades.
• Taliban’s Limited Control: The group’s inability or unwillingness to curb terrorism raises concerns.
• Previous Failures: China and Pakistan have faced significant setbacks in their dealings with the Taliban.

Way Forward

• Terrorism-Free: India should insist on a clear Taliban commitment to counterterrorism efforts to ensure regional stability.
• Action Against IS: The Taliban must actively collaborate with regional partners to neutralize IS threats and prevent further attacks.
• Breaking Ties: The Taliban must stop sheltering anti-Pakistan militants, severing ties with TTP to reduce cross-border tensions.

Conclusion

Given its experience with past terror attacks, engagement with the Taliban presents serious security risks for India. New Delhi must carefully weigh potential gains against the grave risks involved, ensuring a measured approach in its dealings with the Taliban.

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