Recent joint military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have sharply escalated tensions in West Asia, raising fears of a wider regional confrontation and exposing the limits of institutions like the United Nations in restraining unilateral military actions.
The Shift in Global Politics and the Failure of Past Assumptions
- The “End of History” Delusion: In 1991, after the Cold War, it was believed that liberal democracy and global trade had won, leading to a period where multilateral institutions like the UN, WTO, and World Bank would maintain order
- Failed Assumptions: It was assumed that economic interdependence would prevent countries from fighting, as their economies were too integrated
- The Current Reality: These assumptions have collapsed.
- The world has moved from deterrent signalling (showing power to deter others) to direct, coordinated military action. Example: The strikes involving Israel, the US, and Iran.
- The threat of a Third World War is now considered a real possibility
The Return of Hard Power
- Power Over Rules: Modern statecraft has shifted from diplomacy to a heavy reliance on hard power
- Countries no longer wait for international rules or UN interventions; instead, they are using sanctions, military strikes, and strategic alliances to achieve their goals
- Global Examples: This is evident in the US-China trade and technology war over semiconductor chips, US interference in Venezuela, and heavy sanctions on Cuba.
- Structural Imbalance: The transition from a U.S.-led unipolar order to a strategic rivalry between the United States (the established power) and China (the revisionist power) has intensified great-power competition in global politics.
- Primacy of Survival and Security: Perceived existential threats in this rivalry increasingly push states to prioritise national security and strategic survival over strict adherence to international norms and rules.
The Inefficacy of the United Nations
- Outdated Institutional Design: The United Nations was created after World War II to reflect the power balance of the era, when powers such as the United Kingdom, France, and the Soviet Union were dominant.
- Paralysed Security Council: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) often remains ineffective, as permanent members frequently exercise their veto power when core interests clash, preventing decisive collective action.
- Normalisation of Coercive Power: The international system is evolving toward an order where military force, sanctions, and strategic coercion are increasingly normalised tools of statecraft.
Factors Positioning India as a Credible Global Peacemaker
- Strategic autonomy and multi-alignment: India maintains balanced relations across competing blocs, participating in groupings such as BRICS and the Quad while preserving its independent decision-making.
- Credibility across rival powers: India sustains defence cooperation with the US while continuing energy engagement with Russia, demonstrating diplomatic flexibility.
- Bridge between Global South and developed world: India enjoys credibility among developing countries and constructive partnerships with advanced economies, enabling it to facilitate dialogue.
India’s Potential Strategies for Peace
- Track 1 Diplomacy: Formal government-to-government engagement through official negotiations between ministers, diplomats and state representatives to manage conflicts and build consensus.
- Track 1.5 Diplomacy: Hybrid dialogue involving government officials along with experts, think tanks and policy practitioners to generate flexible policy ideas and informal consensus.
- Track 2 Diplomacy: Track II diplomacy refers to informal, non-official dialogue between non-government actors aimed at building trust, exploring solutions, and reducing tensions between conflicting parties.
- Use of Special Envoys: Appointment of dedicated special envoys to conflict zones to maintain communication channels, reduce miscalculation and facilitate dialogue between rival actors.
Stakes for Asia and the World
- Economic Stability: Asia’s economic growth, regional connectivity and poverty reduction depend on a stable global environment.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Escalating conflicts among major powers can fracture global supply chains and trigger inflation.
- Impact on Citizens: Rising food and fuel prices disproportionately affect ordinary citizens, especially in developing economies.
- Risk of Global Instability: Intensifying geopolitical rivalries may push the world towards prolonged instability.
Conclusion
With power politics returning to global affairs, managing rivalry through dialogue and restraint becomes essential. India’s strategic autonomy positions it as a credible facilitator of communication and stability.
6 Mar 2026
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