India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri was in China in January 2025, during which India and China made several announcements on the future of their bilateral relations.

India-China Relations

• Restoration of Bilateral Exchange: India’s statement following recent talks with China indicates efforts to restore:
  • Media and think tank exchanges
  • The Kailash Mansarovar Yatra
  • Resumption of bilateral flights by summer 2025
• Reasons for Renewed Engagement
  • Post-Galwan Stalemate: After four years of strained relations, both nations recognize the need for détente.
  • Trump’s Election Impact: The unpredictable nature of Donald Trump’s presidency has prompted India and China to seek stability.
  • Economic Considerations: Both nations face economic challenges, necessitating better bilateral ties.
• Historical Precedents: China sought to normalize ties with India post-1962 only after the 1989 Tiananmen backlash. The October 2024 de-escalation and January 2025 agreement suggest China is once again preparing for external geopolitical shifts.
• Unresolved Border Questions: Lack of clarity on patrolling rights and demobilization status raises concerns. The absence of government communication has led to speculation about the extent of de-escalation.

India-China Border Standoff

• Deployment of Troops : Large troop mobilization began during May-June 2020 tensions and increased after the June 15 Galwan clashes. Troops were stationed near six key friction points, including:
  • Galwan Valley
  • Depsang Bulge
  • Charding Nala
  • Gogra Post and Hot Springs
  • North bank of Pangong Lake
• Uncertainty: No official confirmation on whether the PLA troops have retreated to their bases. Restoration of normalcy on the LAC remains unverified. Patrolling rights—a key indicator of territorial status—have not been publicly confirmed.
• Diplomatic Ambiguity: October 2024 briefing before the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan was guarded, referring only to a process of disengagement. No follow-up briefing to reaffirm India’s stance on bilateral relations and border security.
• Approach: India maintains that stability on the border and restoration of status quo ante are prerequisites for advancing relations.
  • China, however, urges India to move past the 2020 clashes and focus on economic, political, and social cooperation.
• Implications: Lack of official communication creates a perception that China’s “move on” stance is prevailing. Raises concerns that India is compromising on its demand for stability and restoration of status quo ante before advancing other ties.
• Cautious Approach: India-China relations have experienced cyclical fluctuations under Xi Jinping’s leadership. The absence of clear updates from the Indian government raises doubts and does not inspire confidence. Given the strategic stakes, abundant caution is the best approach moving forward. 

Conclusion

The process of restoring normalcy was expected to be slow and complex. Fundamental differences in worldviews mean India and China will not align on global order anytime soon.

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