On May 10, 2025, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan was announced after the Pahalgam attack. Despite hopes for de-escalation, immediate violations exposed its fragility, reflecting deep-rooted hostility and strategic mistrust.
About Ceasefire
- Refers: A temporary suspension of hostilities, not a legal end to conflict.
- Forms: Can be written or oral, and may involve third-party mediation.
- Legal View: Under international law, it is a step towards peace, not peace itself.
- Violations: Governed by Hague Regulations (1910) — includes provisions for resuming hostilities or seeking compensation.
Key Components of a Ceasefire Agreement
- Timing: Specifies start time/date.
- Prohibited Acts:
- Military: Troop movement, weapon use
- Non-military: Propaganda, threats
- Separation of Forces: Ceasefire lines, buffer zones
- Monitoring: By UN missions, joint or civilian observers
- Additional Measures: Includes POW repatriation, return of refugees, compensation claims.
Why Ceasefires with Pakistan Often Fail?
- Zero-sum Doctrine: Pakistan treats peace as a strategic pause, not resolution.
- Tactical Use: Uses ceasefires to regroup militarily.
- Historical Pattern:
- Kargil War (1999) came after a ceasefire.
- Deep state tactics often override official commitments.
- Emotional Symbolism:
- For Pakistan: Kashmir = Muslim identity
- For India: Kashmir = national sovereignty
- Ideological Divide: Rooted in identity and ideology, not just territory.
Terrorism: A Strategic Tool for Pakistan
- Avoids conventional war due to military inferiority.
- Supports non-state actors to internationalize Kashmir.
- Example: 26/11 attacks targeted Mumbai’s economy and India’s global stature.
- State-Non-State Nexus: Pakistan uses terror with state support as part of foreign policy.
India’s Strategic Shift Post-2016
- Doctrine Change: No longer distinguishes between state and non-state actors.
- OODA Loop Strategy: Rapid and unpredictable retaliation.
- Key Actions:
- Balakot airstrike (2019)
- Operation Sindoor
- Global Diplomacy: Building international support for retaliation.
Pakistan’s Global Strategy
- Hyphenation Attempt: Seeks parity with India on the world stage.
- Kashmir Focus: Tries to keep issues on global agenda.
- Third-party Mediation: Frequently invited, mostly rejected by India.
- Narrative Warfare: Promotes victimhood narrative abroad.
Pakistan’s ‘Bonsai Democracy’
- Military Dominance: Civilians have little foreign/security policy control.
- Silencing of Leaders: Elected leaders often jailed or sidelined.
- Recent Developments:
- Gen. Asim Munir called Kashmir the “jugular vein.”
- Attack followed — not coincidental.
India’s Strategic & Diplomatic Options
- Review Treaties:
- Indus Waters Treaty
- Shimla Agreement
- Diplomatic Pressure:
- Push claim over PoK
- Build global coalitions
- Narrative Counter:
- Support Baluchistan movement.
- Target Pakistan’s internal contradictions.
| If Ceasefire Violations Continue |
If Ceasefire Holds |
- Military Options:
- Deploy naval and air power.
- Launch precision strikes on terror camps.
|
- Security Posture:
- Maintain alert on LoC and LAC.
- Strengthen cybersecurity and deterrence.
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- Information Warfare:
- Engage in cyberattacks, narrative control.
- Push for economic sanctions.
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- Diplomatic Isolation:
- Keep Pakistan isolated on global platforms.
- Counter victim narrative effectively.
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- Support Internal Dissent: Aid to anti-establishment forces inside Pakistan.
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- Defense Modernization: Utilize calm phase to upgrade defense capabilities.
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Conclusion
The fragile ceasefire highlights the persistent ideological divide, Pakistan’s use of proxy warfare, and India’s evolving security doctrine. Long-term peace depends on mutual credibility, sustained restraint, and dismantling of state-sponsored terror networks.
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