Hybrid Warfare and India’s Concerns

Recently, a shocking incident occurred that sent shockwaves around the globe: pager devices used by Hezbollah operatives exploded, resulting in numerous casualties among their ranks. This attack is believed to have been carried out by Israel, showcasing the extent of planning and sophistication involved in modern warfare.        

Background

• Israel is situated to the north of Lebanon, which also has a coastline along the Mediterranean Sea. In the 1980s, Israel launched attacks on Lebanon, leading to the establishment of Hezbollah as a response to these incursions. 
• Iran supported Hezbollah through funding, training, and arms, positioning it as a key military force in the region.

Today, Hezbollah operates as both a Shia political party and a military group in Lebanon, with the primary goal of resisting Israeli influence and attacks. Iran has strategically developed multiple fronts against Israel, including:

• Hezbollah in Lebanon: Focused on military resistance against Israel.
• Hamas in Gaza: Another Iran-supported group that has conducted attacks against Israel.
• Houthi Rebels in Yemen: Active in conflicts that also target Israeli interests.

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This network of groups reflects Iran’s broader strategy of opposing Israel through various militant organisations across the region.

Implications in the trend of warfare

• This incident illustrates a disturbing trend in warfare: the integration of physical and cyber capabilities, commonly referred to as hybrid warfare. The ability to manipulate technology to cause physical harm highlights a new paradigm in military strategy, where traditional combat methods are combined with cyber operations.
• As nations continue to invest in advanced surveillance and cyber capabilities, the potential for future conflicts may escalate dramatically. The implications are profound; not only does this represent a shift in how wars are fought, but it also raises concerns about the safety and security of civilians in an increasingly interconnected world. The frightening prospect is that warfare may evolve into a landscape where technological manipulation plays as crucial a role as traditional military force.

Why Should India Be Concerned?

• Dependency on Oil Imports: India relies heavily on the West for oil imports. Any violence or instability in the region can lead to spikes in global oil prices, impacting India’s economy.
• Large Diaspora in the West: India has a significant diaspora in Western countries. In the event of conflict, many of these individuals may return to India, which could exacerbate job scarcity and reduce remittances, further straining the economy.
• Growing Dependence on Digital Systems: India’s reliance on digital infrastructure spans energy grids, transportation, telecommunications, and banking. This dependence makes the country vulnerable to cyberattacks.
  • Cyber Vulnerabilities: Adversaries like China and Pakistan could exploit weaknesses in these systems. With China’s advanced technological capabilities, it poses a serious threat. Past incidents, such as cyberattacks on institutions like AIIMS and the PMO, highlight this potential vulnerability.
• Rise of insurgency: The potential for hybrid warfare—using both conventional and unconventional tactics—can destabilise India. Adversaries might support insurgencies or terrorism using advanced tools, further complicating India’s security landscape. India is already grappling with issues like Naxalism. Enemy nations could leverage these internal conflicts by providing support to rebel groups, making the situation even more precarious.  

The gravity of these concerns cannot be understated. If high-profile targets like the PMO can be compromised in cyber warfare, it raises serious questions about the security of other critical infrastructures. India’s geopolitical landscape necessitates vigilance and strategic preparedness to address these multifaceted threats.   

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India’s Weaknesses in Cybersecurity and Defense

• Fragmented Cybersecurity Infrastructure: India’s cybersecurity framework is still in its developmental stage. While programs to strengthen digital defence have been initiated, there is a lack of a unified framework that integrates the military, government, and private sectors to ensure comprehensive protection.
• Technological Gaps: Although India has made strides in the technology sector, it still lags behind global superpowers like China in areas such as military technologies, cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and electronic warfare. India’s dependence on imports for many critical technologies exposes it to vulnerabilities, similar to situations faced by groups like Hezbollah.
• Reactive Approach: India tends to adopt a reactive rather than proactive approach to cybersecurity. Measures are often implemented only after incidents occur, leaving the country exposed to potential threats. A shift towards a proactive stance is essential for effective defence.
• Bureaucratic Delays: The slow decision-making process within bureaucratic structures hinders the timely implementation of cybersecurity policies.  The IC814 hijacking in 1999 illustrates how delays in decision-making and communication while the plane was in Amritsar aggravated threat and compromised security during a critical incident.
• Underinvestment in R&D: While India has made progress in areas such as space and missile technology, investment in research and development for cyber defence and hybrid warfare remains inadequate. This underfunding hampers the ability to quickly counter these emerging threats.

Steps India Can Take to Strengthen Cybersecurity

• Develop Advanced Cybersecurity Policies: India needs comprehensive cybersecurity policies that address both modern and traditional systems. Protecting older communication systems, defence networks, and public utilities is essential, necessitating the establishment of a robust Cyber Command Center to tackle national cybersecurity issues.
• Enhance Technology and Knowledge Sharing: Strengthening strategic partnerships, particularly with countries like Israel, which has advanced cyber warfare technologies, can facilitate technology and knowledge transfer. This collaboration can position India as a global leader in cybersecurity.
• Promote Cyber Diplomacy: Relying solely on defence partnerships is insufficient; India should engage in multilateral forums such as the UN, G20, and BRICS to shape global cyber norms. As China expands its cyber influence, India can leverage its diplomatic networks to create a global cybersecurity alliance.
• Invest in R&D: Increased investment in research and development is vital for advancing cybersecurity capabilities. Engaging experts and promoting skill training programs in universities and defence institutions will ensure a skilled workforce ready to tackle emerging threats.
• Embrace Modern Communication Tools: Transitioning from traditional communication methods, such as pagers, to more secure and efficient direct messaging platforms can enhance real-time communication. This shift will mitigate vulnerabilities associated with outdated systems and improve information dissemination.

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Conclusion

The potential impact of failing to address cybersecurity vulnerabilities in India could be long-term and significant. If India does not adopt a timely and aggressive approach to strengthening its cybersecurity framework, it risks being harmed by enemy states that could exploit these weaknesses. Proactive measures are essential to safeguard national security and ensure that India remains resilient against emerging threats in the digital landscape.

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