Context
The paradox of Indian contemporary foreign policy lies in its global rise amid regional decline, attributed to changes in relative power dynamics, particularly vis-à-vis China, and shifting geopolitical landscapes in South Asia.
Indian Foreign Policy: Navigating Global Ascendancy and Strategic Influence
- India’s Economic Rise: India’s robust economic growth, bolstered by demographic dividends and technological advancements, has propelled its emergence as a global power.
- India’s Global Influence: Participation in forums like the G-20, BRICS, and Quad showcases India’s growing geopolitical significance and its engagement in shaping global agendas.
- India’s Strategic Significance: India’s pivotal role in the Indo-Pacific region, amid increasing attention to maritime security and trade dynamics, underscores its strategic relevance.
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Indian Foreign Policy Faces Regional Decline
- India’s Waning Influence in South Asia: India’s influence in South Asia has weakened compared to the Cold War era, exacerbated by China’s ascendance in the region and the United States’ withdrawal.
- Challenges to India’s Regional Hegemony: Factors such as China’s assertive regional policies, coupled with American retrenchment, have accentuated India’s challenges in maintaining regional hegemony.
- India’s Indo-Pacific Focus: In the Indo-Pacific, while attention has grown, India’s global importance as a vital player might have strained its capacity to engage with its continental neighbors, given its focus on the great power dynamics in the region.
- Factors Behind India’s Regional Decline: The decline of India’s regional influence stems from power dynamics and geopolitical decisions made by smaller regional powers. Overlooking their balancing acts in favor of great power dynamics could prove counterproductive.
Indian Foreign Policy Faces Regional Decline Amid China’s Rise
- Shift of Dominance in South Asia: China’s unprecedented rise as a global superpower has reshaped the regional balance of power, challenging India’s traditional dominance in South Asia.
- Change in Neighborhood Dynamics: India faces heightened geopolitical competition in its neighborhood, leading to strategic shifts among smaller powers aligning with China.
- The region’s smaller powers engage in balancing acts, viewing China as a hedge against India, shifting the regional balance of power.
Strategic Responses to Address the Paradox of Indian Contemporary Foreign Policy
- Need for Geopolitical Adaptation: India must acknowledge the changing geopolitical landscape and modernise its approach to the region.
- Acknowledging Regional Geopolitical Shifts: It is imperative to recognize that the region, its neighbors, and their geopolitical dynamics have undergone significant changes over the past fifteen years at the very least.
- Capitalizing on India’s Strengths in Regional Engagement: India should prioritize leveraging its strengths instead of attempting to compete directly with the People’s Republic of China in every aspect, which is an impractical pursuit.
- It’s crucial to devise a fresh approach to regional involvement that aligns with India’s traditional advantages and the evolving realities of the region.
- Reasserting its Buddhist heritage serves as an illustrative strategy.
- Leveraging India’s Maritime Advantage: India’s continental strategy presents numerous obstacles, whereas its maritime domain offers ample opportunities to boost trade, participate in minilaterals, and forge issue-based coalitions, among other endeavors.
- Therefore, New Delhi should capitalize on its maritime strengths in the Indo-Pacific to address its various continental limitations.
- Engaging South Asian Neighbors in Indo-Pacific Strategy: This might entail integrating India’s smaller South Asian neighbors into Indo-Pacific strategic dialogues. While many of them are maritime nations, they currently have limited involvement in the Indo-Pacific initiative.
- Expanding Indo-Pacific Partnerships: India and its allies (the U.S., Japan, Australia, the European Union, and others) should explore avenues to engage and collaborate with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Bangladesh within their broader Indo-Pacific strategy.
- India ought to endeavor to draw them from the China-led regional strategy by integrating them into the Indo-Pacific strategy
- External Collaboration: Embracing a non-India centric lens and leveraging partnerships with external actors can address regional challenges.
- Utilizing Soft Power and Informal Diplomacy:
- India’s Soft Power Influence: India should harness its soft power to maintain influence, fostering informal contacts and conflict management processes in the region.
- Bridging Diplomatic Gaps: Encouraging informal engagements with civil society actors can bridge diplomatic gaps, especially in sensitive areas like Myanmar.
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Conclusion
Indian foreign policy must navigate the complexities of its global rise and regional decline by adapting strategies to shifting power dynamics and leveraging soft power to maintain influence in its neighborhood.
May 4, 2024
