Background of India’s Nuclear Program
- Early Developments and Initial Tests: India’s nuclear journey began with its first test in 1974, code-named “Smiling Buddha,” at the Pokhran Test Range. This test was a peaceful nuclear explosion (PNE) aimed at demonstrating technological capability rather than building a comprehensive nuclear arsenal.
- Pokhran-II Tests (1998):
In May 1998, India conducted a series of five nuclear tests, known as Pokhran-II, marking a shift from technology demonstration to asserting its status as a nuclear power.
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Extra Edge
Q. Why did India choose to exercise the nuclear option in 1998 after having followed a policy of ambivalence since the peaceful nuclear explosion (PNE) in 1974?
Answer: The answer lies in the following developments of the 1990s:
- Restrictive Non-Proliferation Environment: The indefinite extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in the 1990s, which India opposed, reinforced global nuclear inequalities by creating a divide between nuclear and non-nuclear states. India criticised the NPT for entrenching these disparities and felt compelled to develop a credible deterrent to counteract the pressures and assert its position in a changing global landscape.
- Hostile Neighbours: In the 1990s, India faced increasing regional threats. The growing nuclear capabilities of neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan and China, heightened India’s security concerns. Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions and China’s advancements in nuclear technology, including missile development, influenced India’s decision to assert itself as a nuclear power through the 1998 tests.
- Disintegration of USSR: During the Cold War, India’s close alliance with the Soviet Union was vital for its security, including support in the 1971 war. However, the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 ended this strategic partnership and isolated India as global power dynamics shifted, compelling India to reassess its security posture.
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- International Response/Consequences of the Pokhran Tests: India’s 1998 tests drew global criticism and sanctions, particularly from the United States.
- India justified the nuclear tests as an essential step to strengthen national security, particularly in response to the rapidly rising influence of China. The United States, while initially expressing concerns over the potential arms race and regional instability, also shared apprehensions about China’s growing power. Consequently, despite its reservations, the U.S. ultimately recognized India’s security rationale and accepted its need for a credible deterrent in the evolving Asian geopolitical landscape.
- President Bill Clinton’s 2000 visit helped repair relations, culminating in the 2005 U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement, which acknowledged India as a nuclear power and facilitated civilian nuclear cooperation while addressing non-proliferation concerns.
- Additionally, during this period, India was emerging as a significant economic power, further influencing global perceptions and diplomatic interactions.
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India’s Nuclear Doctrine
Development of Nuclear Doctrine
Post-1998, India faced the task of defining its nuclear strategy. On August 17, 1999, K. Subrahmanyam, convenor of the first National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), presented a draft nuclear doctrine to Brajesh Mishra, India’s first National Security Advisor. This document laid the foundation for India’s nuclear doctrine, emphasising credible minimum deterrence and No First Use (NFU).The doctrine was operationalized in 2003.
Features of India’s Nuclear Doctrine
- Credible Minimum Deterrence: India maintains enough nuclear weapons to deter attacks without engaging in an arms race, focusing on assured second-strike capability. For instance, during the Kargil War, India responded responsibly despite Pakistan’s nuclear threats.
- No First Use: India adheres to a policy of using nuclear weapons strictly in response to a nuclear attack, underscoring a defensive strategy focused on deterrence. This approach ensures that any nuclear retaliation is authorised exclusively by civilian political leadership. In 2016, however, then-Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar stirred debate by suggesting a more flexible approach, questioning the need for a “no first use” policy. Despite these remarks, the government swiftly reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the established stance of nuclear restraint.
- Massive Retaliation: Any nuclear attack on India will result in a massive retaliatory strike to inflict unacceptable damage on the aggressor.
Relevance of India’s Nuclear Doctrine
- Stability: During the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, India adhered to conventional warfare, consciously avoiding any nuclear threats, thereby reducing the risks of escalation. Had India adopted a first-use nuclear policy, it could have triggered a catastrophic nuclear conflict, as the adversary, out of fear, might have resorted to a preemptive nuclear strike. This highlights the importance of India’s commitment to a no-first-use policy in maintaining regional stability and preventing nuclear warfare.
- Economic Benefits: India’s policy of credible minimum deterrence keeps defence spending moderate, around 2% of GDP in 2021-2022, compared to other nuclear-armed nations.
- Boosting Global Image: India’s nuclear doctrine enhances its global reputation, fostering international engagement and boosting its soft power.
- Responsible Attitude of India’s Nuclear Policy: India’s commitment to responsible nuclear policy enabled the 2008 U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement and the 2016 Civil Nuclear Deal with Japan, reflecting its responsible nuclear behaviour.
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Challenges
- Pakistan’s Full-Spectrum Deterrence: Pakistan’s strategy includes short-range tactical nuclear weapons, such as the Babur missile tested in 2017, designed to challenge India’s doctrine. These tactical nuclear weapons, while having a reduced impact compared to strategic warheads, still retain their nuclear nature and are intended to deter any conventional or limited aggression.
- China’s Nuclear Expansion: China’s 2021 hypersonic missile test, capable of bypassing traditional defence systems, threatens regional stability.
- Emerging Technologies and Their Threats: Technologies such as AI in warfare, cyberattacks, and space-based systems can have significant effects. For example, Israel’s use of the Stuxnet virus against Iran’s nuclear program in 2010 illustrates how emerging technologies can disrupt critical systems. Such threats also pose considerable risks to India’s command and control systems and nuclear program.
- Climate Change: Even a limited nuclear exchange can trigger a nuclear winter, leading to severe and prolonged global cooling. This scenario could significantly disrupt climate patterns and agriculture.
Way Forward
Looking ahead, India needs actions at two levels for sustainable national security. The first is to address immediate security threats by intelligently building sufficient and resilient retaliatory capability to signal credible deterrence. At the second level, India needs to make long-term innovative diplomatic investments towards the creation of a global environment conducive to peace and universal nuclear disarmament. Some suggestions:
- Technical Improvements: Enhancing the reliability and precision of India’s nuclear arsenal.
- Sea-Based Nuclear Infrastructure: India should enhance its sea-based nuclear capabilities to strengthen its second-strike capability and ensure a credible nuclear deterrent. This development is crucial for maintaining a robust response even if land-based nuclear assets are compromised.
- Command and Control Upgrades: Modernising India’s nuclear command and control systems to ensure robust decision-making processes.
- International Cooperation: Promoting global non-proliferation efforts and engaging in arms control negotiations.
- Crisis Management: Developing comprehensive crisis management plans to prevent accidental or unintended nuclear escalation.
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Conclusion
The basic attributes of the doctrine as presented in the draft 25 years ago, therefore, remain valid in the face of contemporary nuclear trends. India’s nuclear doctrine, in fact, stands out for being a beacon of nuclear stability, even as others are indulging in behaviour that encourages a cycle of hedging strategies and an arms race. The calmness of India’s doctrine is a virtue amidst today’s nuclear cacophony.
August 22, 2024
