It is time for India to punch its weight and enhance its global presence at a time when global geopolitics is being reset. But, as of now, it is not moving India’s way.

Challenges from the United States (US)

• Shifting Narratives: During Operation Sindoor, many of India’s strategic partners, including the US, were unwilling to explicitly condemn Pakistan for harbouring UN-sanctioned terrorist groups involved in the Pahalgam attack. 
  • While India’s retaliation against terror camps was decisive, the US President Donald Trump repeatedly claimed he brokered a ceasefire using trade as leverage, weakening India’s narrative. 
  • This was further compounded by Trump inviting Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir for lunch shortly after Operation Sindoor. 
  • Despite this, the US did designate The Resistance Front (TRF) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and Specially Designated Global Terrorist, and the UN Security Council also named TRF for the Pahalgam attack.
• Economic Pressure: The unpredictability of US policies is evident. 
  • On the day of the historic NISAR satellite launch, a joint India-US collaboration, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India. 
  • He politicised trade issues, threatening India over its purchase of Russian oil, despite the US itself importing Russian uranium, palladium, fertilisers, and chemicals. 
  • Trump has also urged US companies to invest only in the US and hire only Americans, directly impacting India’s economic interests.
• Lopsided Engagements: The US has engaged in lopsided security and trade agreements with its allies. It permitted its tech giant, Nvidia, to resume sales of H20 AI chips to China, despite earlier national security concerns, even granting China more time to finalise the deal. 
  • Bogged down in conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, the US has reduced its focus on East Asia, and any broader geopolitical understanding between the US and China in this region would restrict India’s strategic space.
• Eroding Trust in South Asia: US posturing in South Asia has been detrimental. The resurgence of US-Pakistan relations is a persistent concern, with the US praising Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts and contributions to regional stability, showing clear insensitivity to India’s security concerns. 
  • In Bangladesh, the US acted against Indian interests by supporting forces opposing Sheikh Hasina. 
  • Similarly, in Myanmar, US and European support for anti-military government forces is destabilising India’s North-East. 
  • These actions have rapidly eroded mutual trust between the US and India, particularly after incidents like Galwan and Pahalgam, where hopes for better coordination on regional security were not met.

Challenges from the European Union (EU)

• Targeting India’s Energy Security: The EU is targeting India’s import-led energy security at a time when India is negotiating an India-EU Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement.
  • The EU has sanctioned India’s Vadinar Refinery, where Russian Rosneft has a large stake, knowing full well that stopping Russian oil into India will lead to huge pressure on oil prices. 
  • On the other hand, Hungary, Slovakia, Belgium, Spain and others are importing Russian oil, through pipelines and as LNG, by securing exemptions or under existing contracts. 
  • Europe receives 51% of Russian LNG exports.
• Trade Barriers: The EU’s carbon border tax and various other digital and trade barriers against India persist. 
• India expects that the recently concluded India-U.K. Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will compel the EU to moderate its demands in ongoing trade negotiations. 

Challenges from China

• Isolation Attempts: China is actively pursuing initiatives to isolate India. It proposed a trilateral initiative with Pakistan and Bangladesh, though Bangladesh has not yet agreed. 
  • China is also assisting Bangladesh in reactivating a Second World War airbase at Lalmonirhat, critically close to India’s strategically vital Siliguri Corridor.
• Support for Adversaries and Border Assertions: China provided extensive support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. 
  • It has also arbitrarily standardised Mandarin names for locations within Arunachal Pradesh, asserting its claims. 
  • China aims to control the future of the Dalai Lama’s institution, intending his successor to be from China rather than India.
• Economic Coercion and Infrastructure Projects: Leveraging its massive trade surplus with India, China is pressuring India’s crucial supply chains, including rare earth minerals, fertilisers, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, tunnel boring machines, and technical personnel, where India remains dependent. 
• A further concern is China’s plan to construct its largest dam in Tibet on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) river, near the Indian border. 

Way Forward

India is currently performing a delicate balancing act to counteract an unpredictable US, an unresponsive EU, and an aggressive China. Its approach must evolve beyond traditional frameworks:

• Rethinking Stance on Global Conflicts: India should seriously rethink its stand to remain on the margins of global conflicts. Its overall approach of not taking a proactive stand on world conflicts may hurt its larger interests and diminish its geopolitical clout as long as it remains on the sidelines. Example: 
  • India has been largely silent, if not openly pro-Israel, on the ongoing Israel-Gaza war — an unfolding multidimensional human tragedy. 
  • India was also largely silent on the recent Israel-Iran conflict and American bombings, despite important relations with both warring parties and huge stakes in the Gulf. 
  • It rightly abstained on the UN votes on the Ukraine conflict.
• Lessons from Operation Sindoor: Operation Sindoor has shown India that if it seeks a greater engagement of its partners with its conflicts and issues, India needs to engage more with their conflicts and issues. International relations often prioritise strategic alliances and group strength over abstract notions of ‘right’ or ‘wrong’.
• Assertiveness and Strategic Autonomy: India must become more assertive in global conflicts to safeguard its strategic autonomy. 
  • This includes engaging in tough negotiations with the US, but strategically signing deals to build trust in the current environment. 
  • Securing an India-US trade deal quickly is crucial to prevent further deterioration of relations and to encourage a US presidential visit for the Quad summit.
• Embracing Multi-alignment: India must not solely depend on the US. 
  • It needs to strengthen its position within forums like BRICS (with the 2026 summit in India), the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and actively engage with East Asia, acknowledging the missed opportunity of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Conclusion

The notion that India can simply “keep its head down” and focus solely on economic growth in a fragmenting world is obsolete. 

• Geopolitics, coercion, threats, and protectionism are now defining economic and technological outcomes, overriding traditional trade norms. 
• Therefore, achieving India’s economic and technological goals necessitates a sophisticated and assertive geopolitical strategy. 

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