The Indo-European Pivot

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany arrived in India on January 12, 2026, for his first official visit, focusing on strengthening bilateral ties in trade, security, and technology

Global Situation: Two Dominant Disruptive Forces

• US Unilateralism: The “America First” approach under President Trump created uncertainty for traditional alliances. It weakened trust in multilateral institutions and long-term security commitments.
• Chinese Assertiveness: Under Xi Jinping, China’s aggressive statecraft is disrupting borders and international rules.
  • It challenges sovereignty, maritime norms, and the rule-based order, especially in Asia and Europe.

Implications for India–Germany Relations

• Middle-Power Constraint: India and Germany are middle powers squeezed between the US and China. Both countries seek strategic autonomy, stable supply chains, and rule-based multilateralism.
• Drivers of Cooperation: Shared concerns over US unpredictability and China’s assertiveness push them toward closer economic, technological, and security cooperation.
• The Trap: If India and Germany rely only on either the US or China, they may be reduced to strategic pawns with limited autonomy.
• The Stability Axis: India and Europe aim to create a New Axis of Stability because neither China nor the US is seen as fully reliable at present.

Strategic Compulsion Of India–Germany Partnership

• Energy Insecurity (Germany): After the Ukraine war, Germany lost access to cheap Russian gas, leading to higher energy costs and increased dependence on alternative and often costlier suppliers.
• Defence Dependence (India): India’s reliance on Russian weapons is increasingly risky due to Russia’s reduced production capacity and delayed deliveries amid the war and sanctions.
• Supply Chain Risks (Both Countries): Heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing exposes the supply chain to disruptions and economic coercion, particularly in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and clean technologies.
• Security Pressures from China (India): India faces sustained Chinese military pressure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and increasing Chinese influence in its neighbourhood, strengthening the need for strategic partnerships beyond the Indo-Pacific.
• Strategic Uncertainty in Transatlantic Security (Germany/Europe): Growing doubts about the long-term U.S. commitment to European security and NATO have prompted Germany and Europe to seek stronger security and strategic partnerships with like-minded powers, such as India.
• Trade Pressures: US trade coercion and protectionist measures increase uncertainty for global partners.

Key Outcomes of India-Germany Partnership

• Defence: Germany is abandoning post-World War II pacifism and moving towards massive rearmament, marking a fundamental change in Europe’s security posture.
  • Germany plans to spend up to 3.5% of GDP on defence, with projected annual defence spending of about US $200 billion by 2030. It may overtake Russia to become Europe’s largest military spender.
  • Trigger Factor: Russia’s war in Ukraine exposed Europe’s defence vulnerabilities, pushing Germany to rapidly strengthen its military capacity.
  • Significance of India: This creates major scope for defence industrial collaboration, co-development, and technology transfer, supporting India’s goals of defence diversification and Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence manufacturing.
• Trade and Commerce: 
  • EU–India Free Trade Agreement: The central economic objective is to conclude the long-pending EU–India FTA to expand market access and investment flows.
  • Status of Negotiations: After years of delay, talks have gained fresh momentum following Modi–Merz discussions, signalling a strong political push on both sides.
  • Timeline for Conclusion: Both sides have resolved to finalise the FTA by the end of January 2026.
  • Political Significance: The timeline coincides with European leaders’ Republic Day visit to Delhi, providing diplomatic visibility and momentum to seal the agreement.

Historical Flashback and Continuity in Strategy (1915 vs 2026)

• World War I (1915 Context) 
  • Germany’s Goal: Germany aimed to weaken the British Empire, its principal wartime rival.
  • India’s Goal: Indian revolutionaries sought independence from British colonial rule.
  • Common Strategy: Tactical alignment followed the logic of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
• Key Events: 
  • Berlin Committee: A group of Indian revolutionaries based in Germany received German support for anti-British activities.
  • Kabul Expedition (1915): The expedition led to the formation of the First Provisional Government of India in exile in Kabul, headed by Raja Mahendra Pratap Singh.
• Link to Present (1915 vs 2026): Then and now, India–Germany cooperation reflects pragmatic strategic alignment in response to dominant powers, highlighting continuity in interest-based partnerships rather than ideology.

Decoding the Indo-European Concept

• What Indo-Europe Is NOT: Not a military alliance like NATO.
  • Not a substitute for the Quad or the U.S.
• What Indo-Europe IS: A third strategic pillar alongside U.S.-led and China-led power centres to stabilise the Eurasian balance.
  • A platform for economic, technological, and strategic coordination between India and Europe.
• “Supplementary Geometry”: Indo-Europe is a flexible strategic arrangement, not a formal alliance or treaty bloc, meant to complement rather than replace existing partnerships.
• Need of Indo-Europe: Helps manage risks posed by a tightening China–Russia alignment that could reshape Eurasian security and supply chains against middle powers.
  • Provides insurance against an inward-looking or isolationist U.S., reducing over-dependence on U.S.-led security and economic frameworks.
• Strategic Logic of Partnership:
  • India’s Strengths: Demographic scale, large workforce, and deep consumer and digital markets.
  • Europe’s Strengths: Advanced manufacturing, green technologies, precision engineering, and high-end research.

Key Areas of India–Europe Cooperation

• IMEC: Diversifies trade routes, improves connectivity, and reduces dependence on China-centric corridors.
• Green Hydrogen & Critical Minerals: Builds clean energy supply chains and secures strategic minerals from geopolitically safer partners.

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Strategic Autonomy 2.0: From Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment

• Shift in Meaning: Independence now means multi-alignment, not isolation.
• Old Model (Non-Alignment): Equidistance from power blocs to preserve sovereignty.
• New Model (Multi-Alignment): Issue-based partnerships across security, economy, technology, and energy without permanent bloc loyalty.
• Hedging: India balances China with U.S. support in the Indo-Pacific, while using Europe/Germany to widen strategic options and avoid over-dependence on any single power.

Conclusion

Germany is the anchor partner, while India is also deepening ties with France, the UK, Italy, and Poland, creating a multi-node European network rather than single-country dependence.

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