Iran and Israel War: Worst Case Scenarios

Israel launched airstrikes towards Iran, targeting multiple nuclear and military facilities, and killing several senior military officers and scientists under “Operation Rising Lion”.

• The attack comes amid escalating tensions over Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme, which Israel views as a threat to its existence.

Historical Context of Israel-Iran Hostility

• Pre-1979 Ties: Iran was the second Muslim country to recognize Israel after 1948.
• Post-1979 Shift: The Islamic Revolution led to a theocratic regime under Ayatollah Khomeini; diplomatic ties were severed.
• Ideological Hostility: Iran views Israel as an occupier of Palestinian land; termed it “Little Satan” and the US as “Great Satan”. Iran calls Israel a ‘Zionist Cancer’.
• Iran’s Regional Role: Iran’s support for Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah, especially post October 7, 2023, intensified tensions.
• April 2025: Iran directly attacked Israel.
• IAEA Censure: A day before the attacks, Iran was censured by the IAEA for non-cooperation—the first such censure in 20 years.
• June 2025: Israel retaliated with Tehran Strike.

Worst-Case Scenarios in Israel-Iran Conflict Escalation

• U.S. Gets Drawn into War: Iran suspects U.S. complicity in Israeli strikes despite U.S. denials.
  
  • Possible Iranian retaliation could target: U.S. military bases in Iraq and the Gulf, U.S. diplomatic missions.
  • Militias in Iraq remain a threat despite Hamas and Hezbollah being weakened.
  • If a U.S. citizen is killed (e.g., in Tel Aviv), pressure to retaliate increases.
  • Donald Trump, despite his anti-“forever wars” stance, may face domestic political pressure to act.
  • The U.S. is the only power with bunker-busting capability needed to hit Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility.
• Gulf Nations In the Crossfire
  • Iran may target softer infrastructure in Gulf countries (e.g., oil fields, ports).
  • Gulf nations host U.S. bases and some have secretly aided Israeli defense.
  • Previous Iranian-linked strikes: Saudi oil fields (2019), UAE targets via Houthi drones (2022).
  • If Gulf states are attacked, they may demand U.S. and Israeli military support, widening the conflict.
• Failure to Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Capacity
  • Israel may kill scientists, but Iran retains nuclear knowledge and expertise.
  • Risk of Iran accelerating nuclear weapon development post-attack.
  • Hardline military leadership may replace more cautious figures.
  • Could lead to a cycle of repeated attacks – Israel’s strategy known as “mowing the grass.”
• Global Economic Shock: Oil prices have already surged due to tensions.
  • Potential outcomes: Iran may attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route that handles 20% of oil trade and Houthis in Yemen escalate Red Sea attacks on shipping.
  • Impact on global economy: Aggravates inflation and cost of living crisis worldwide.
  • Rising oil prices will benefit Russia, boosting its war chest for Ukraine.
    
• Collapse of Iranian Regime
  • Netanyahu signals a long-term goal: regime change in Iran, not just stopping its nuclear program.
  • Israel is “clearing the path” for freedom from “oppressive regime.”
  • Dangers of regime collapse: Power vacuum and instability, as seen in post-invasion Iraq and Libya, Risk of civil war or extremist groups filling the void.

Way Forward: Future Depends On Two Questions

• Iran’s Response: Will retaliation be limited or full-scale?
• U.S. Influence on Israel: Can Washington restrain Netanyahu from further escalation?

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