Iran-Arab Gulf Rivalry: Nuclear Threat, Strait of Hormuz & Middle East Power Politics

Rising tensions between Iran and the Arab Gulf monarchies have regained attention due to concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, proxy conflicts, and maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.

Structural Disparity and Power Imbalance

• Demographic and Political Asymmetry: Iran is a large unified state with about 90 million people, while the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies together have around 27 million citizens, creating a structural imbalance in regional power.
• Difficulty in balancing Iran: Given Iran’s geographic size, population, and military capabilities, the Arab Gulf states cannot independently establish a stable strategic balance against it.
• Dependence on External Powers: This imbalance pushes countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to rely heavily on the United States for security guarantees and the protection of key sea lanes, such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Historical Evolution of Gulf Security Order

• British Security Architecture: For nearly 150 years, Britain maintained stability in the Gulf by protecting smaller monarchies while maintaining working relations with Iran from its base in British India.
• Transformation of the Regional Order: The decline of British power, the independence of Gulf states in 1971, and the 1979 Iranian Revolution fundamentally reshaped Gulf geopolitics.
• Pre-1979 Iranian Assertiveness: Even under the Shah, Iran pursued regional dominance by occupying Abu Musa and the Tunb islands in 1971, claiming Bahrain as a province, and intervening militarily in Oman.

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Impact of the 1979 Islamic Revolution

• Ideological Transformation: Iran shifted from Persian nationalism to a Shia revolutionary ideology seeking influence across the Middle East.
• Expansion through Proxies: Iran strengthened its regional presence by supporting groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, increasing tensions with Sunni Arab monarchies.
• Breakdown of US–Iran Alliance: The revolution transformed the United States from Iran’s ally into its principal strategic adversary.

Failed Strategies and Unintended Consequences

• Iraq as a Counterweight: Gulf states supported Iraq in the Iran–Iraq War to contain Iran, but the strategy backfired when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.
• Rise of Sunni Extremism: Efforts to counter Shia Iran by backing radical Sunni forces contributed to the emergence of extremist networks such as Al-Qaeda.
• US Invasion of Iraq in 2003: The removal of Saddam Hussein weakened a major check on Iran and allowed pro-Iranian Shia groups to gain influence in Iraq, expanding Iran’s regional reach.

Contemporary Alignments and Negotiations

• Strategic Convergence with Israel: Iran’s growing influence has encouraged security cooperation between Israel and Gulf states, culminating in normalisation agreements under the Abraham Accords.
• Divergent Strategic Demands: Western and Arab states demand limits on Iran’s nuclear programme and proxy activities, and the Strait of Hormuz under free navigation.
  • Iran seeks recognition of its nuclear rights, removal of US bases in the Gulf, guarantees against future attacks, compensation for war damages, and veto power over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Continued Centrality of the United States: Despite the presence of other global powers, the US remains the primary security provider for Gulf monarchies.

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Conclusion

The Iran–Arab Gulf rivalry represents a structural geopolitical contest shaped by power asymmetry, ideology, and external alliances, making conflict management, rather than resolution, the realistic pathway to regional stability.

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