Iran’s Nuclear Ambition: Waltz- Segan Debate and West Asia’s Future

A classic debate in international relations theory between Kenneth Waltz and Scott D. Sagan examines whether nuclear weapons increase global stability or heighten the risk of catastrophic war.

• Recent military actions by Israel and the United States against Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons have revived the debate on nuclear deterrence.

Debate on Nuclear Weapons: Sagan vs Waltz

• Scott Sagan: Nuclear Proliferation Makes the World More Dangerous
  • Increases systemic risk: As more states acquire nuclear weapons, the likelihood of nuclear conflict rises.
  • Risk of irrational decision-making: Leaders and states may not always behave rationally during crises.
  • Accidental or unauthorised use: Technical failures, miscommunication, or organisational failures may trigger unintended nuclear launches.
  • Weak institutional control: Newly nuclear states may lack robust command-and-control mechanisms.
• Kenneth Waltz:  Nuclear Weapons Can Enhance Stability
  • Deterrence-based stability: Fear of catastrophic retaliation and Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) discourages states from initiating nuclear war.
  • Fear of escalation: Leaders avoid conflicts that could escalate into nuclear exchanges.
  • Cold War evidence: Despite intense rivalry, the United States and the Soviet Union avoided direct war.

Historical Incentives for Nuclear Deterrence

• Vulnerability of non-nuclear states: Countries such as Iraq and Libya faced military intervention and regime change by Western powers in the absence of nuclear weapons, highlighting the strategic risks for non-nuclear states.
• The North Korea model: In 2017, Donald Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury,” but later shifted to diplomatic engagement with Kim Jong-un after the country demonstrated nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities (ICBM), indicating the deterrent value of nuclear weapons.
• The Ukraine warning: Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum in return for security assurances from the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia, yet faced Russian aggression in 2014 and a full-scale invasion in 2022.
  • Realist scholar John Mearsheimer had predicted in 1993 that only nuclear weapons would provide a reliable deterrent for Ukraine against Russia.

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Conclusion

The actions by Israel and the United States to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons may actually push Iran to pursue them faster, as nuclear weapons are seen as the most reliable deterrent for its survival.

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