LPG Crisis 2026: Ujjwala Yojana, Import Dependence & India’s Energy Vulnerability

The West Asia war in March 2026 triggered a massive LPG shortage in India. While shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz were the trigger, the crisis has exposed structural flaws in India’s flagship clean energy welfare model.

The Success and the Vulnerability

• PM Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY): A decade-long program that provided 10.33 crore connections to BPL households, doubling national coverage and saving women significant daily time.
• The Kerosene Exit: LPG replaced the old Public Distribution System (PDS) kerosene. While kerosene was “leaky,” it was a state-controlled supply. LPG, conversely, is a market-dependent commodity.
• Import Reliance: India imports 60% of its LPG, with 90% of those imports passing through the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

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Structural Gaps in Energy Welfare

• Lack of Buffers: Unlike crude oil (9.5 days of reserve), India lacks a specific Strategic LPG Buffer. The state’s welfare goals are currently at the mercy of uninterrupted global flows.
• Sovereign Guarantee vs. Market Reality: While the scheme carries government branding, the physical infrastructure and supply chain remain private/market-driven, leaving the state with little control during global conflicts.
• The “Refill” Challenge: Even before the crisis, high costs meant 25% of beneficiaries took one or no refills. Rising prices and mandatory booking gaps (45 days for rural areas) force the poor back to biomass (firewood/dung).

Social and Gendered Impacts

• Caste Inequities: Access is 10% to 30% lower for SC/ST households due to distributor networks reflecting existing local hierarchies.
• The Gender Burden: While women are the formal beneficiaries, they have no control over global supply. When LPG fails, the drudgery of collecting biomass returns specifically to women, undoing years of “liberation.”

Proposed Policy Interventions

• Strategic Reserves: Building a two-month strategic LPG buffer.
• Diversified Routes: Routing a statutory minimum of imports outside the Strait of Hormuz.
• Decentralized Alternatives: Reviving the GOBARdhan (biogas) scheme with subsidies for dormant plants to provide a local backup.
• Piped Gas (PNG): Accelerating piped gas in cities to reduce the pressure on cylinders.

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Conclusion

A durable welfare system must include redundancy. Transformation built on fragile global supply chains without crisis protocols or physical buffers cannot be considered a true “sovereign guarantee.”

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