Maldives’ Political Shift: Implications for India-Maldives Relation | PWOnlyIAS 2023

Context:

• This article is based on an Editorial “Change in the Maldives: On the new leader, Mohamed Muizzu” which was published in The Hindu. In the recent presidential run-off elections in the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu secured victory by defeating the incumbent President Ibrahim Solih.

More on News: Maldives Faces Political Upheaval

• Mr. Solih’s electoral loss is being attributed to a heavy anti-incumbency sentiment and concerns over the post-COVID-19 economy that is dependent on tourism, as well as concerns over “sovereignty” issues.

Maldives’ Shifting Alliances: Solih’s Pro-India Stance vs. Muizzu’s China Pivot

• Maldives’ Divergent Paths: Mr. Solih favoured India and committed publicly to an “India First” policy. However, Muizzu belonged to the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), which was behind an “India out” campaign to oust Indian military personnel. 
  • PPM chief and former Maldives President Abdulla Yameen, the chief architect of the “India out”  campaign (serving a jail term of 11 years) was openly at odds with India during his tenure. 
• Maldives’ Pro-China Policy: He had paved the way for a free trade agreement with China and loans for infrastructure projects. 

The way Forward: Navigating Diplomacy – India-Maldives Relations in a Complex Regional Landscape

• Strengthening Bilateral Ties: India seeks to build more strategic and friendly relations with the newly elected government.  
  • India needs to help its neighbour in its needy time like it earlier assisted the Maldives during the pandemic.
• Balancing Act: Maldives will have to balance traditional, strategic interests with India, its closest and most powerful neighbor.
  • It is important that neither India nor Maldives view these interests through the prism of “zero-sum” games, as that has led to tensions between them in the past.   
• Maldives needs to remember China’s “debt trap”policy experienced by Sri Lanka and need to work accordingly.

Conclusion 

• The recent Maldivian presidential election highlights shifting dynamics in foreign policy. Cooperation between India and Maldives is crucial for regional stability and prosperity.

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