The Maldives President, Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, is on a state visit to India, marking a significant diplomatic turnaround from his previous campaign rhetoric, which was influenced by the ‘India Out’ campaign

Timeline of Events Making the Visit Significant

• Historic Relations: India and the Maldives have historically enjoyed close diplomatic relations, with India being a major aid provider.
• Election Campaign: Muizzu’s campaign was marked by the ‘India Out’ movement, positioning him as less favourable toward India.
• Official Visits to Turkey and China: Shortly after taking office, Muizzu’s visits to Turkey and China were viewed as diplomatic snubs to India, contrasting with the tradition of Maldivian leaders visiting India first.
• Social Media Controversy:  Maldivian deputy ministers made derogatory remarks about Prime Minister Modi after he promoted tourism in Lakshadweep, escalating tensions and prompting diplomatic intervention.
• Jibe at India: Muizzu indirectly criticised India, claiming no one had the “license to bully” the Maldives and set a deadline for Indian troop withdrawal.
• Troop Withdrawal: Following concerns over Indian military presence, India withdrew approximately 80 soldiers from the Maldives.

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Maldives current stance

As of now, the Maldives’ stance, particularly under President Mohamed Muizzu, reflects a more reconciliatory approach toward India 

• Softened Military Stance: Muizzu has recently adopted a more neutral view on foreign military presence in the Maldives, expressing disapproval of all foreign forces and not particularly Indian troops.
• Economic Collaboration: Facing an economic crisis and debt issues as exemplified by dripping forex reserves, Muizzu is seeking financial support from India, currency swap agreement.
• Tourism and Trade Relations: Muizzu aims to restore and promote tourism from India, recognizing its significance to the Maldivian economy, which has been affected by recent tensions.
• Commitment to Security Cooperation: The Maldivian government assures it will not take actions that compromise India’s security, emphasising stability in the region while cooperating with other nations.
• Emphasis on Strong Bilateral Relations: Acknowledging India as a crucial partner for development and security, Muizzu stresses the importance of maintaining strong bilateral ties based on mutual respect and shared interests.

What Prompted Change of Heart? 

• Economic Crisis: The Maldives is currently facing significant economic challenges, leading to a looming financial crisis.
• Dropping Forex Reserves: Foreign exchange reserves have plummeted to $440 million, barely enough for one and a half months of imports.
• Credit Rating Downgrade: Moody’s has downgraded the Maldives’ credit rating, citing increased risks of default.
• Tourism Sector Affected: The tourism sector, a critical component of the economy, has been negatively impacted, leading to a decline in revenue and visitor numbers.

India’s Stand

• Mature Stance: India’s approach under President Muizzu is marked by diplomatic engagement that emphasises mutual respect and cooperation, prioritising economic support and security collaboration. 
• Economic Support: In light of the Maldives’ economic challenges, India is prepared to provide financial assistance and has committed over $1.4 billion in aid for infrastructure development. 
• Strategic Importance: The Maldives’ strategic location in the Indian Ocean is crucial for India, as it seeks to maintain security cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region and monitor regional dynamics to counterbalance Chinese influence in the area.

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Conclusion

As both nations work to strengthen economic ties and security collaboration, President Muizzu’s visit establishes a foundation for a more stable and prosperous partnership, fostering regional stability and enhancing mutual interests in the Indian Ocean area.

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