A Multipolar World With Bipolar Characteristics

The U.S. is escalating military mobilisation near Venezuela aimed at intensifying pressure on Venezuela to force President Nicolás Maduro from power. The developments reflect broader shifts in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump and changes in the global balance of power.

U.S. National Security Strategy and the Revival of the Monroe Doctrine

• Strategic Priority: The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), released in early December 2025, identifies Latin America and the Caribbean as a strategic priority and revives the Monroe Doctrine.
• Monroe Doctrine: A U.S. foreign policy articulated in 1823 stating that the Western Hemisphere was off-limits to further European colonisation or interference, and that any such intervention would be viewed as a hostile act against the United States.
  • It also signalled that the U.S. would, in turn, stay out of European power politics, reinforcing its sphere of influence in the Americas.
  • The NSS asserts that the U.S. must deny influence or control by outside powers, particularly China, in Latin America.

U.S. Strategic Shift Away from Europe

• Declining Interest in European Security: The push to reinforce American primacy in Latin America coincides with President Donald Trump’s waning interest in Europe.
  • Since the end of the Second World War, the U.S. has served as Europe’s primary security guarantor.
• Historical Role of the U.S. in Europe: During the Cold War, the U.S. kept Western Europe together through a tightly knit alliance. 
  • After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the U.S. expanded its security umbrella to Eastern Europe, creating a large transatlantic bloc.
• Trump Administration’s Position: Under Mr. Trump, the U.S. is no longer interested in shouldering the burden of European security. 
  • This position is explicitly articulated in the National Security Strategy.
• Strategic Shift: At a moment when Russia and China are seeking to overturn the U.S.-built and U.S.-led security and economic order, the U.S. is stepping back from Europe while consolidating its influence in the Western Hemisphere.
  

Nature of Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach

• Absence of a Cohesive Doctrine: His approach is marked by impulses, unpredictability, and ideological orientation rooted in Christian nationalism and belief in American might.
• Use of Force: Mr Trump is not the ‘President of peace’ that he claims to be. He has already bombed six countries, even if he has stopped short of a full-scale war.
• Recognition of Structural Shifts: Despite his rhetoric about American military and economic dominance, Mr Trump recognises that the world is no longer unipolar. 
  • His reluctant aggression and strategic recalibration reflect changes in the global balance of power.

End of Unipolarity

• Unipolar Moment (1991): After the fall of the USSR, the U.S. became the sole superpower.
• Rupture Point (2014): Russia’s annexation of Crimea signalled a challenge to U.S. dominance.
• Ground Reality: Western sanctions failed to collapse Russia. The U.S. is no longer the uncontested “sole authority,” and the global system is now more anarchic, with no single global policeman.
• U.S. Still Leads: The end of unipolarity does not mean the end of American dominance.
  It remains the world’s leading power in both military strength and economic size.
  • However, the U.S. is no longer the only great power; China and Russia have firmly secured positions at the global decision-making table, signalling a move toward multipolarity.

Evolution of Great Power Rivalries

• Cold War Comparisons: During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was America’s principal rival. In the 1970s, Washington reached out to China to exploit fissures within the communist bloc.
• China as the Principal Challenger: Today, the U.S. identifies China as its principal and systemic challenger. This opens the possibility of a reset in ties with Russia.
• Ideological Basis for a Russia Reset: The idea of improved U.S.-Russia ties is embraced by Mr Trump’s MAGA ideologues. They frame Russia as part of a shared ‘Christian civilisation’.
  

The U.S.–China Power Transition

• Economic Comparison: The Soviet economy at its peak in the early 1970s accounted for about 57% of U.S. GDP before slowing. China’s economy now amounts to about 66% of the U.S. economy.
• Growth and Military Expansion: China continues to grow faster, and has converted its economic power into military capability and has built the world’s largest Navy by number of ships.
• Strategic Ambitions: Like other great powers, Beijing seeks regional hegemony and global dominance and a prolonged contest between the U.S., the reigning power, and China, the rising power, appears unavoidable.
  • The situation is comparable to 19th-century Europe, when rising imperial Germany threatened Britain during Pax Britannica.
  • The Thucydides Trap describes the tendency toward conflict when a rising power threatens to displace an established dominant power.

Russia- The Swing State

• Relative Weakness: Russia is the weakest of the three great powers, with a smaller economy and a shrinking sphere of influence.
• Sources of Power: Russia’s nuclear arsenal, expansive geography, abundant energy and mineral resources, and willingness to use force sustain its great power status.
• Post-Soviet Trajectory: Russia drifted into the wilderness during the 1990s and announced its return to great power politics in 2008 with the war in Georgia.
• European Security Contestation: Russia has sought to rewrite the post-Soviet security architecture in Europe, with NATO expansion into its sphere of influence intensifying tensions.
• Russia–China Alignment: Western sanctions and military support to Ukraine pushed Russia closer to China, with both opposing the Western ‘rules-based order’.

Reasons For Calling a Multipolar World With Bipolar Traits

• Power Distribution: The global order is multipolar because power is distributed among three great powers and several influential middle powers.
• Traits: At the same time, it exhibits bipolar traits because the central axis of global competition is increasingly defined by U.S.–China rivalry, with Russia acting as a swing power between the two.

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Fluid Multipolarity in the Current Global Order

• Absence of a Fixed Structure: The world is already multipolar, yet the structures of the new order have not fully emerged.
• Comparison with the Cold War: Unlike the Cold War’s two ideological blocs and separate economic systems, China today lacks satellite-state networks similar to those of past superpowers.
• Reassessment of Alliances: The United States is reassessing the sustainability of its alliance frameworks, including reconsidering its commitment to Europe.

Strategic Calculations of the Three Great Powers

• Russia’s Strategic Autonomy: Russia wants to avoid being seen merely as China’s ally, which creates limited space for a possible U.S.–Russia reset.
• Ukraine as a Stumbling Block: The war in Ukraine continues to impede U.S.–Russia relations, as Russia seeks to reassert dominance in its immediate neighbourhood.
• China’s Eurasian Strategy: China seeks to maintain its partnership with Russia to maintain its strategic influence in the Eurasian region.

India’s Stand

• Hedging as Strategy: Uncertainty in the global order pushes middle powers, including U.S. allies such as Japan and Germany, and independent actors such as India and Brazil, to hedge their strategic choices.
  • Hedging is a strategy where states avoid fully aligning with any single central power. Instead, they spread risks and maximise options by cooperating with multiple powers simultaneously while keeping fallback alternatives open.

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