Recently, political instability in Myanmar and the resulting refugee influx are straining Northeast India’s security, economy, and border management

Insurgency in Northeast India

• Prolonged Insurgency: Northeast India has historically faced prolonged insurgency. However, in recent decades, large parts of the region have remained free of such conflicts. 
  • This stability has enabled the execution of large-scale infrastructure projects.
• Manipur Violence: Despite the progress, recent violence in Manipur highlights the increasing strain on these gains. The primary factor contributing to this instability is the evolving political situation in Myanmar.

Impact of Myanmar’s Crisis

• Military Coup: In February 2021, Myanmar witnessed a military coup, which led to widespread public disapproval. The civil disobedience movement soon escalated into armed resistance, with the formation of the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs).
• Escalation of Armed Conflict: PDFs, along with Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), launched coordinated attacks, forcing the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) to cede control over vast areas. 
  • In response, the Tatmadaw resorted to indiscriminate force, including aerial and artillery bombardments.
• Affected Regions: Intense clashes occurred in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region, Chin, and Kachin States, all of which share borders with Northeast India. The conflict in these regions has direct implications for stability in India’s Northeast.
• Ethnic Linkages: Northeast India is home to several ethnic groups, such as the Mizo-Chin-Kuki, who have strong community and familial ties across the India-Myanmar border.
• Establishment of FMR: Recognizing these ethnic interactions, a Free Movement Regime (FMR) was established post-Independence, initially covering a 40 km radius, later reduced to 16 km.
  • The FMR allowed movement across the border without visas and facilitated local economic activities like Border Haats to promote trade and livelihoods.
• Refugee Influx: The violent conflict in Myanmar led to large-scale refugee movement into India, impacting border management strategies. As per United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates (December 31, 2024):
  • 95,600 refugees from Myanmar entered India.
  • 73,400 refugees arrived after the military coup.
  • Due to the porous border, accurate figures remain uncertain.
• Response:
  • Mizoram: Civil society and the State government have shown empathy toward refugees due to shared ethnic identity.
  • Manipur: Concerns over ethnic balance and its impact on the Meitei-Kuki conflict have led to resistance against the refugee influx.
• Restriction of FMR: In response to security concerns, the Union Home Minister announced the abolition of FMR to safeguard internal security and maintain the demographic structure of Northeastern States. 
  • However, it remains unclear if India’s Ministry of External Affairs has formally communicated this to Myanmar. 
  • In December 2024, a new framework was introduced, allowing movement within 10 km of the border at designated entry/exit points with a permit.
• Economic Impact: Instead of expanding the FMR for economic engagement, its restriction has adversely affected border trade.
  • Moreh (Manipur), a key trade town, has suffered significantly due to recent violence, delaying its potential as India’s gateway to Southeast Asia.
  • Plans for the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway have also slowed down.

Way Forward For India

• Calibrated Response: Unlike China, India lacks UNSC membership and must navigate the Myanmar crisis within a liberal democratic framework. 
  • A more calibrated and comprehensive strategy is necessary to manage developments in Myanmar and prevent further instability in Manipur.
• Addressing Cross-Border Insurgency: The consolidation of unhealthy relationships between Indian insurgent groups and armed groups in Myanmar must be curtailed. Engaging with various ethnic organisations in Myanmar is crucial to achieving long-term stability.
• Humanitarian Support: Increase humanitarian aid to border regions. Develop health care and educational infrastructure near the India-Myanmar border (Manipur & Mizoram) to reduce forced migration into India.
• Diplomatic Efforts: India, in collaboration with select regional partners, must encourage all Myanmar stakeholders to adopt a federal democratic framework for long-term peace.
• Allocation of Resources: Political uncertainty in Bangladesh and the civil war in Myanmar are major hurdles to Northeast India’s external economic engagement.
  • The Indian government must allocate additional resources to sustain economic growth in the region.

Conclusion

Despite ongoing security challenges, the broader objective should be to enhance economic interactions with Southeast Asian countries. The policy framework should be designed to capitalize on economic opportunities as soon as conditions permit.

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