Nepal is facing a crisis that reflects deep governance failures, with serious spillover risks for India across shared borders, rivers, and cultural ties.

Nepal’s Current Crisis

• Youth Led Protests: Nepal has witnessed widespread, violent protests by the “Gen Z” generation (13-28 year olds), targeting the system, burning parliament and the PM’s residence, leading to PM Oli’s resignation and around 30 deaths.
  • This is not a routine cycle of political change but a generational demand for systemic reform, accountability, and trustworthy institutions.
• Silent Exodus: Over a thousand young Nepalis are leaving the country daily, highlighting a lack of future prospects and a “broken trust” in the nation’s policymakers and politicians.

Causes of Discontent In Nepal

• The protests were triggered by a ban on social media apps, but the underlying causes include:
  • Political corruption, 
  • “Nepokids” (children of politicians displaying lavish lifestyles),
  • The instability of Nepal’s political system since the end of the monarchy in 2008 and 
  • The new constitution in 2015 (once hailed as a landmark, has failed to deliver stability, leading to weakened trust in institutions). 
  • Frequent changes in Prime Ministers and the same old faces in power, alongside opportunistic alliances (e.g., between CPIM and Nepali Congress), have frustrated the youth who feel unrepresented by the mostly elderly leadership.

Strategic Implications for India

• Spillover Risk: Instability in Nepal risks spilling over into India via the open border, affecting Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, and Uttarakhand.
  • A weakened Nepali state could export volatility, resentment, and instability into India’s neighbourhood.

Lessons from the Bangladesh

• Leadership Crisis: Similar scenes of leadership collapse and army intervention occurred in Bangladesh.
• Student Unrest: Bangladesh’s student protests once turned anti-India due to perceptions of overbearing interference.
• Big Brother Perception: This happened because India was seen as lecturing and meddling in Bangladesh’s internal matters instead of being a supportive partner.
• Nationalist Sentiment: Nationalism thrives on the idea of the foreign bully, however benevolent its intent.

Way Forward

• Respect for Sovereignty: There is a need to avoid heavy-handed diplomacy, political alignment, or lecturing; engagement must be quiet yet firm. 
  • Example: Avoiding self-congratulatory media coverage, which was ill-received during the 2015 Nepal earthquake.
• Engagement with Youth: Engage with Nepal’s Gen Z leaders, not just politicians.
  • Scholarships, internships, cultural exchanges, and digital initiatives should show India hears young Nepalis.
• Strategic Patience: Avoid rushing to interfere. Allow Nepal to resolve its internal issues. India should convey that it stands ready as a dependable friend if needed, without dictating terms.
• Engage with All Stakeholders: India should keep channels open with all political parties, civil society leaders, and, crucially, the youth.

Conclusion

Nepal is at a crossroads where it can either “crumble or flourish.” India must act with wisdom, foresight and humility, learning from past mistakes, as Nepal’s future and peace are inextricably linked to India’s security.

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