Recently, former U.S. President Donald Trump signed over 100 agreements aimed at withdrawing the U.S. from various multilateral agreements. 

Achievements in US-India Relations

• Year-on-Year Improvement in Ties: India has seen continuous progress in its relationship with the U.S. over the past quarter-century. Under President Donald Trump, the visible signs of improvement were positive, with significant diplomatic gestures.
• Notable Diplomatic Events: India’s External Affairs Minister attended Trump’s inauguration, signaling growing ties. It strengthened cooperation among the Quad nations.
• Bilateral Meeting: India’s engagement with the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, was marked by a first meeting focused on strengthening bilateral relations.
• Trump-Modi Call: The leaders of India and the U.S. held a productive phone call, reaffirming their commitment to bilateral cooperation.

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Impact of Trump’s Immigration Policies on India

• Immigration Control: Trump prioritized securing U.S. borders to prevent “invasions” by illegal aliens. He designated cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and enforced advanced vetting for visa issuance processes. 
  • The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency conducted raids and arrests to bolster enforcement.
• India’s Response: India has responded diplomatically, agreeing to take back all illegal immigrants who are verifiably Indian. However, this response overlooks the deeper, long-term economic effects that these policies will have on India.
• Legal Immigration: Indians are now the second-largest group granted U.S. citizenship legally, after Mexico. They have also captured a predominant share of H-1B visas, especially in sectors like technology, IT, and healthcare.
• Illegal Immigration: India ranks as the third-largest country in terms of illegal immigration to the U.S. 
  • A Pew Research analysis of ICE data states that approximately 725,000 Indians are among the total of 14 million undocumented migrants in the U.S.
• Loss of Remittances: If deportation flights increase as they did during Trump’s first term, India will face a loss of remittances from Indian workers in the U.S. 
  • This loss could lead to significant challenges in meeting the financial needs of families reliant on these funds.  India would need to manage the returnees, who may face reintegration challenges
• Economic Costs : Trump has shown the ability to impose economic pressure on countries, as seen with his success in pressuring Colombia to accept deportations under threat of 25% tariffs. 
  • Any refusal by India to accept deportations could result in similar economic costs, including trade repercussions.
• Impact on White-Collar Workers: While many deportations involve blue-collar workers, Trump’s immigration policies also target white-collar professionals, including middle-level managers, engineers, and other skilled workers.
• Birthright Citizenship: Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship could be struck down by the judiciary. 
  • However, the message remains clear: The U.S. is signaling a less welcoming environment for immigrants seeking to settle permanently and raise families in the country. 
  • Along with earlier restrictions on H-1B spousal work privileges, these actions are part of a broader trend to restrict migration for skilled professionals, particularly in high-demand fields like technology and engineering.
• Impact on STEM Graduates: The reduction in opportunities for Indian professionals to migrate to the U.S. will require India to reassess its own education and skilling policies.
  • India will need to ensure that its STEM graduates can be absorbed into the domestic workforce, particularly in technology and other specialized industries.

Impact of Trump’s Trade Policy Plans

• “America First” Policy: On inauguration day, Trump issued executive orders (EOs) and exit orders, marking the implementation of his “America First Trade Policy” and a directive to Marco Rubio for “America First Foreign Policy”. 
  • These policies emphasize prioritizing U.S. interests over global cooperation and leverage tariffs as tools for enforcement.
• Weaponization of Tariffs: India must be prepared for the weaponization of tariffs by the U.S., which could be used as leverage to enforce Trump’s economic and political agendas, such as trade imbalances, immigration controls, and foreign policy dictates.
• Impact on India’s Trade Relations: During Trump’s first term, India quietly accepted the withdrawal of its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status, which reduced India’s preferential trade benefits with the U.S. 
  • India also had to comply with Trump’s orders to end oil imports from Iran and Venezuela, further showcasing the U.S.’s economic leverage over India.
• Future Impact (Trump 2.0): Under a second term, such actions might intensify, with the U.S. potentially amplifying its bully-tactics and pushing other countries like China to follow suit, thereby creating a more hostile global trade environment for India and others.
• Tariff Threats : Trump’s threat to impose 10% tariffs on China, a reduction from his previous proposal of 60%, marks a shift in the U.S.-China trade rhetoric. 
  • Additionally, his invitation to Xi Jinping for the inauguration and a U-turn on the TikTok ban complicate the previously clear-cut antagonistic stance toward China.
• G-2 Concept Resurgence: While previous U.S. Presidents’ attempts at a U.S.-China “G-2” (a global leadership duo) were short-lived, Trump’s recent phone call with Xi Jinping suggests a potential shift towards a cooperative stance to make the world more peaceful and safe.
• Withdrawal from Global Institutions: Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from several key international agreements, including the World Health Organization (WHO), the OECD Global Tax Deal, and the Paris Climate Agreement, will have significant repercussions for global cooperation, including India’s development agenda.
• Development Funding Loss: India had anticipated funding from the U.S. for its development programs and energy transition. 
  • Trump’s moves to freeze USAID funding and revoke support for green businesses, electric vehicles, and solar/wind power projects could delay India’s progress in these areas.
• Climate Change Impact: The withdrawal from the Paris Accord also signals that U.S. climate policy may not align with India’s climate change goals, potentially affecting the country’s access to international funding and cooperation for renewable energy and environmental projects.

Impact of Trump’s AI Overdrive on India

• Stargate AI Infrastructure Project: Trump’s $500 billion Stargate AI Infrastructure project is a clear marker of his administration’s focus on advancing the U.S.’s artificial intelligence capabilities. 
  • Spearheaded by major tech companies, this initiative aims to place the U.S. at the forefront of AI technology in the face of increasing competition, particularly from China’s DeepSeek.
• Technological Dominance: Trump’s push for AI is a strategic move to ensure the U.S. stays ahead in global technology competition, specifically against China’s burgeoning AI advancements.
• Reducing Dependency on Foreign Tech Workers: By investing in AI, Trump’s administration is also looking to reduce the U.S.’s reliance on foreign migrant tech professionals, who have been pivotal in the growth of Silicon Valley. 
  • The potential for AI-driven automation could decrease the demand for human labor, especially from tech workers abroad.
• AI Replacing Jobs: The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is expected to replace a significant number of tech jobs, with some predicting that mid-level engineers will be the first to be displaced. 
  • Google’s Sundar Pichai has already highlighted that 25% of new code at the company is generated by AI, signaling a shift in how tech companies operate.
• Tech Giants’ Role: Mark Zuckerberg’s comments on AI replacing mid-level engineers at Meta and similar firms underscore the scale of the disruption expected across the tech industry.
• India’s Tech-Driven Growth: Over the past decades, India’s growth has been fueled by its IT-BPM (Information Technology-Business Process Management) sector, which contributes 55% to GDP and accounts for about 40% of India’s exports.
  •  India’s tech professionals have been integral to this success, especially in terms of providing tech services globally, including in the U.S.
• Threat to Migration Opportunities: The rising dominance of AI could significantly disrupt the prospects for Indian tech professionals looking to migrate to the U.S. 
  • Historically, a large number of successful Indian-Americans have moved to the U.S. from the 1960s onwards in search of tech opportunities, largely driven by the U.S.’s desire to lead in technology during the Cold War.

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Conclusion

New Delhi must engage with what all these tech, trade and migration trends portend for India’s future, and the economic concerns it must factor into in its diplomatic negotiations with “Trumperica”.

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