New START Treaty 2026: End of U.S.–Russia Nuclear Arms Control Era

The collapse of New START on 5 February 2026 marks the end of the U.S.–Russia bilateral nuclear arms control agreement.

Historical Context

• The Arms Race Era: In the 1970s and 80s, the USA and USSR engaged in an intense arms race, accumulating over 10,000 strategic nuclear warheads each by 1980.
• SALT vs. START: Initial efforts began with the SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks), which aimed to cap the arms race by limiting further testing.
  • The START I treaty (1991) went further by mandating the reduction and destruction of existing stockpiles, aiming to bring the number of warheads down to 6,000 each, a roughly 30% reduction.
• New START: The New START was a nuclear arms reduction treaty signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, capping deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 and providing for mutual on-site inspections to ensure compliance.

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Reasons for the Collapse of Arms Control Architecture

• Geopolitical Shift: The New START Treaty (2010) expiry without renewal or replacement reflects a broader global regression toward neo-imperialist tendencies, marked by mercantilist tariff regimes and renewed strategic competition for markets and territories.
• Erosion of Trust: In a climate where nations are competing over territory and trade (e.g., the US interest in Greenland or aggressive tariff policies), the trust required for arms control has vanished.
• The “China Factor”: A primary reason for the collapse is China’s rise as a major nuclear power.
  • The U.S. argues that continued adherence to the 1,550-warhead cap with Russia became strategically untenable amid China’s rapid nuclear expansion and accelerated testing.

Opportunity in the End of START

• Breaking the Bipolar Duopoly: The end of START weakens the exclusive U.S.–Russia control over nuclear norm-setting, opening space for a more representative global framework.
• Toward Inclusive Arms Control: In an increasingly multipolar system, fresh negotiations can incorporate other nuclear powers, particularly China, enabling a more comprehensive and balanced disarmament architecture.
• Rethinking Legacy Regimes: The erosion of older, perceived “discriminatory” treaties such as the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) may compel a structural overhaul of international nuclear law to better reflect contemporary power realities.

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Conclusion

The end of the New START treaty offers India an opportunity to assert strategic autonomy and shape a more inclusive global arms control framework.

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