Recently, clashes erupted between the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Pakistan’s armed forces along the 2,600 km-long Pakistan–Afghanistan border.

Historical Background: Pakistan’s Strategic Depth Policy

• Pakistan’s Geostrategic Objective: Pakistan’s primary goal has always been to achieve Strategic Depth in Afghanistan.
  • Due to its narrow geography, Pakistan feared that in case of an Indian attack, its forces would need Afghan territory to retreat, regroup, and counterattack.
• Need for a Puppet Regime: Achieving strategic depth required a government in Kabul that would follow Pakistan’s directions and align with its regional interests.
• Soviet Intervention and Proxy War (1979–1989)
  • In 1979, the USSR intervened and installed a Communist regime under Babrak Karmal.
  • Pakistan, a US ally, opposed this regime and sought to install a friendly Islamist government.
  • The Proxy War (1979–1989): The US (Operation Cyclone), Pakistan’s ISI, Saudi Arabia, and the Mujahideen fought the Soviet-backed Afghan government.
• Post-Withdrawal Civil War: After the USSR’s withdrawal (1989), Mujahideen factions fought among themselves.
  • Pakistan initially supported Gulbuddin Hekmatyar as its preferred warlord.

Emergence of the Taliban (1994)

• Formation: The Taliban, formed from Pakistani madrassas with Saudi funding, rose to power in 1994, promising Sharia law.
• Pakistan’s Stance: Pakistan shifted its support to the Taliban, viewing them as a more reliable ally.

Issues During Taliban Rule (1996–2001)

• Durand Line Dispute: The Taliban refused to recognize the Durand Line as the official border.
  • Pakistan remained insecure about Afghan claims since Pashtuns live on both sides.
• Rise of Afghan Nationalism: Pakistan’s interference fueled Afghan nationalism and anti-Pakistan sentiment.

The “Good Taliban / Bad Taliban” Policy

• Dual Policy Post-9/11: After 9/11, Pakistan publicly joined the US-led War on Terror but secretly continued aiding Taliban factions in Afghanistan.
• Differentiation:
  • Good Taliban: Those fighting US forces in Afghanistan.
  • Bad Taliban (TTP): Those fighting for Sharia law within Pakistan.
• Policy Backfire: The approach backfired as the Afghan Taliban’s resurgence strengthened the TTP within Pakistan.
• Collapse of Pakistan’s Strategy: By 2021, when the Taliban regained power, they refused to follow Pakistan’s directives.
• Post-1989 Shift: After the Soviet defeat, Pakistan concluded that using Mujahideen against a superior military could work in Kashmir.

Challenges of Pakistan’s Internal and Regional Security

• Rise of TTP and Taliban Nexus: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), sharing ideological and operational ties with the Afghan Taliban, aims to impose Sharia law within Pakistan. 
  • This has created internal instability and mirrored the same cross-border terrorism problem that Pakistan earlier directed toward India.
• Escalation of Armed Clashes: Pakistan’s airstrikes inside Kabul triggered retaliatory attacks from the Afghan Taliban on Pakistani border posts. 
  • These clashes have led to casualties on both sides, worsening bilateral tensions and fueling deep anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan.
• Internal Security Crisis: Pakistan is simultaneously confronting multiple insurgent threats — particularly from the TTP in the northwest and Baloch separatists in the southwest , weakening its security apparatus thin and weakening state control in border regions.
• Global Security Threat: The possibility of the TTP gaining influence or control over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal poses a severe international concern, as it could destabilize not just South Asia but the wider global security environment.

Way Forward For India

• Strengthening Border Vigilance: India must maintain robust surveillance along its western borders and adopt a proactive defensive posture to deter infiltration and terror threats emanating from unstable Pakistani territories.
• Deepening Strategic Partnership with Afghanistan: India should build strong political and developmental ties with the Afghan government to prevent Pakistan from re-establishing strategic depth in Kabul and to promote regional stability.
• Enhancing Counter-Terror Preparedness: India must remain prepared for swift and decisive retaliation against cross-border attacks, as seen in Operation Sindoor 2.0, ensuring that any act of aggression carries immediate punitive consequences.

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